Breaking News 实时新闻 | | Forum 论坛 | | UK News 英国新闻 | | USA News 美国新闻 | | World News 世界新闻 | | Political News 政治新闻 | | Sci-Tech News 科技新闻 | | War & Terrorism News 战争与恐怖主义的新闻 | | Sports News 体育新闻 | | Multimedia 多媒体 | | Set Homepage 设为首页

Translate: 翻译：

Monday, October 6th, 2008 星期一，二○○八年十月六日

By Tom Engelhardt汤姆恩格尔哈特

The year is 2010 and, yes, Saddam Hussein is gone and there are no American troops in Iraq, but, as the report suggests, “the challenge will be to see whether a modern, secular successor government emerges that does not threaten its neighbors” — especially since those dogged Iraqis are back at work on their nuclear weapons program. 这一年是2010年，是的，萨达姆侯赛因消失，而且没有美国军队在伊拉克，但是，该报告建议， “所面临的挑战将是查看是否有现代的，世俗的继任者出现了政府不会威胁其邻国” -尤其是因为这些困扰伊拉克人正在恢复工作其核武器计划。 Meanwhile, the national security agenda of American policymakers, who face no conventional military challenges, is dominated by five questions: “whether to intervene, when, with whom, with what tools, and to what end?” 与此同时，国家安全议程的美国的决策者，没有谁面对传统的军事挑战，主要是五个问题： “是否介入，何时，与谁，与什么工具，以及什么目的呢？ ”

Surveying the world in 2010, we find a Russia irredeemably in economic decline, a China beset by too many internal problems to hope for military dominance in Asia, and a North Korea so transformed that military tensions have vanished from the Korean peninsula (along, evidently, with the North Korean nuclear program).测绘世界在2010年，我们找到一个在俄罗斯造成不可挽回的经济衰退，一个困扰中国太多的内部问题，希望军事优势在亚洲，朝鲜，使转化的军事紧张局势已经消失，从朝鲜半岛（沿，显然与北朝鲜的核计划） 。 Oh, and those food riots that swept the globe recently, they never happened.哦，这些食物暴动，横扫全球最近，他们从来没有发生过。 After all, it’s well known that food production has kept up with population pressures, and energy production has been more than a match for global energy needs.毕竟，这是众所周知，粮食生产一直保持了人口压力，和能源生产已经超过一场比赛对全球的能源需求。 As for global warming?随着全球气候变暖的？ Never heard of it.从来没有听说过它。 On the bright side, the key to the future is “international cooperation,” led, of course, by us truly.从好的方面来看，未来的关键是“国际合作” ，领导当然，我们真正。

An alternate universe from a missing Star Trek episode or that new sci-fi novel you haven’t read yet?候补从宇宙星际旅行失踪事件，或新的科幻小说你有没有看过吗？ Not quite.不大。 Thanks to the best brains in the many由于最好的大脑中的许多 agencies机构 that make up the US Intelligence Community or IC, it’s been possible for me to venture into the future, just as our own world is being shaken to its roots — into the years 2010 and 2015, to be exact.这弥补了美国情报界或IC ，这可能对我来说，合资公司的未来，就象我们自己的世界正在动摇其根源-年到2 010年和2 015年，以确切。

There, surprisingly enough, life is relatively calm and the United States remains the preeminent Power of Powers.在那里，令人吃惊的是，生活相对平静和美国仍然是杰出的国国。 There, you aren’t likely to hear the words “deep recession” or “depression” on anyone’s lips.在这里，你可能不会听到的话“严重衰退”或“抑郁症”的人的嘴唇。

In that far perkier future our intelligence analysts sent me to, you can exist forever and there will never be those four jets, box cutters, and 19 hijackers.在这远远perkier将来，我们情报分析员寄给我，您可以永远存在，并有将永远上述四架，框切割机，以及19名劫机者。 The Bush administration will never barge into the world “unilaterally.” The US will not be renowned for torture techniques or an offshore secret prison system of injustice, and nothing will contravene then-Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers Ben Bernanke’s 2005布什政府决不会驳船融入世界“单方面行动。 ”美国不会被著名的酷刑技术或海外秘密监狱系统的不公正，而不是会违反当时的理事会主席经济顾问贝南克2005年 assessment估价 that soaring housing prices were due to “strong economic fundamentals.”认为房价飙升的原因是“稳固的经济基础。 ”

In neither 2010 nor 2015 will anyone have heard of the collapse of Lehman Brothers or the giant insurance company AIG In neither year will newspapers have headlines like在2010年也没有到2015年将任何人听说过崩溃的雷曼兄弟公司或大的保险公司AIG在今年都将报纸的标题一样 “Worst Crisis Since ’30s, With No End Yet in Sight.” “最严重的危机以来'30s ，没有完然而，在视线。 ” In neither will anyone know that the US invaded Afghanistan and Iraq, conducting two bankrupting wars that refused to end.在没有将任何人都知道，美国入侵阿富汗和伊拉克，举办了两次破产战争，拒绝结束。

Think of it as the blandest, tidiest, least-likely-to-occur future around.把它作为blandest ，整洁，最有可能对周围发生的未来。 And it was even paid for with your tax dollars.而且即使支付的与您的税务美元。

Planting the Stars and Stripes in Future Soil 种植星条旗在未来的土壤

In a world where shock has repeatedly been the name of the game, where tall towers fall in clouds of toxic ash, investment houses disappear in the blink of an eye, and a black man is the Democratic Party’s candidate for president of the United States, the American intelligence community has been straining to imagine a future without surprises or discontinuities.在这样一个世界上休克一再名称的游戏，其中塔身高下降的云彩有毒粉煤灰，投资房屋消失在一眨眼的工夫，以及黑人是民主党的总统候选人联合国国，美国情报界一直紧张想象未来没有惊喜或间断。 As its experts summed the matter up in 1997, “Genuine discontinuities — sharp nonevolutionary breaks with the past — are rare, and our focus is on evolutionary change.”正如专家总结了这个问题在1997年， “真正的不连续性-急剧n onevolutionary打破了过去-是罕见的，我们的重点是进化改变。”

Lucky is the country that didn’t bet its foreign policy on that bit of intelligence wisdom.幸运的是该国没有赌其外交政策上的一些情报的智慧。 Of course, in the long decade of hubris, from the Soviet Union’s collapse in 1991 (something American intelligence neither predicted nor expected) to the moment American troops entered Baghdad in April 2003, it seemed obvious enough in Washington that a generational Pax Americana was settling over the world.当然，在长期的傲慢十年，从苏联解体的1991年（一些美国情报机构也都预测预计） ，以目前美国军队进入巴格达在2003年4月，似乎不够明显在华盛顿说， 美国治下的和平世代为解决世界各地。

As a result, the futures the IC’s analysts produced back then were remarkable mainly for their inability to imagine what was stirring under the surface of the obvious.因此，期货的集成电路生产分析师当时是了不起的主要是他们无法想象什么是下搅拌表面的明显。 As a result, when you visit those futures, you’re not likely to have the urge to throw away your Arthur Clark or Isaac Asimov or Philip Dick or William Gibson classics.因此，当你访问这些期货，你可能不会有敦促扔掉你的阿瑟克拉克或艾萨克阿西莫夫或菲利浦迪克或威廉吉布森经典之作。 But maybe you’ll still be curious, as I was, to know what that “community’s” top minds missed when they peered ahead.但是，也许您仍然好奇，因为我，知道什么是“社会的”高级头脑错过当他们盯着前面。 Think of it as a window into the limits of our intelligence services when they tried to grasp the real nature of US power by forecasting the future.把它作为一个窗口，限制我们的情报部门当他们试图掌握真实性质的美国权力的预测未来。

What’s strange is that the distant future was once the province of utopian or dystopian thinkers, pulp fiction writers, oddballs, visionaries, even outright nuts, but not government intelligence services.有什么奇怪的是，遥远的未来曾经是省或dystopian乌托邦式的思想家，纸浆小说作家， oddballs ，幻想，甚至直接坚果，但不是政府的情报服务。 Peering into it was, at its best, a movingly strange individual adventure of the imagination, whether you were reading Edward Bellamy or Charlotte Perkins Gilman, Yevgeny Zamyatin or HG Wells, George Orwell or Aldous Huxley.直到这是在其最好的，一个奇怪的感人个人冒险的想像力，无论你是读爱德华贝拉米或夏洛特帕金斯吉尔曼，普里马科夫扎米亚京或韦尔斯，乔治奥威尔或赫胥黎。 That was, of course, before the Pentagon and allied outfits began这是，当然，在五角大楼和盟军装备开始 planning规划 for the weaponry of 2020, 2035, and 2050; before war turned nuclear and so, with the exception of two cities in 1945, could only be “fought” in think tanks via futuristic scenario writing; before在武器装备到2020年， 2035年，和2050年;面前变成核战争，因此，除这两个城市在1945年，只能是“打”的智囊团未来的设想通过书面形式;之前 names like名称，如 Complex 2030, Vision 2020, UAV [Unmanned Aerial Vehicle] Roadmap 2030 were regularly affixed to government programs.复杂的2030年， 2020年远景规划，无人机[无人机] 2030年路线图，定期向政府追究程序。 In fact, the US government has been planting the Stars and Stripes deep in territory previous left to sci-fi dreamers for quite a while.事实上，美国政府一直种植星条旗深领土以往留给科幻梦想家的相当长的一段时间。

In the process, regularly analyzing the distant future has become almost as much the duty of the 18 agencies of the US Intelligence Community as doing National Intelligence Estimates on Iran.在这个过程中，定期分析遥远的未来已成为几乎同样多的责任机构18日美国情报界因为这样国家情报评估伊朗。 Ever since the 1990s, they have been hard at work preparing committee-made futures that simply won’t happen.自20世纪90年代，他们一直在努力工作委员会编写了期货，只是不会发生。 To judge by their work, they are a community of seers without sizzle, and yet the next of their fantasy futures, for the distant year 2025, is about to be made public.要判断他们的工作，他们是一个社会的预言家不啸，但未来的幻想期货，对于遥远的2025年，即将公开。

Predicting America’s Diminishing Power 预测美国的力量削弱

Every few years the每隔几年的 National Intelligence Council国家情报委员会 (NIC) is mandated to provide “‘over the horizon’ estimates of broader trends at work in the world.” Just in case you’ve never heard of the NIC, it describes itself as “a center of strategic thinking within the US Government, reporting to the Director of National Intelligence (DNI) and providing the President and senior policymakers with analyses of foreign policy issues that have been reviewed and coordinated throughout the Intelligence Community.” （网卡）的任务是提供“超视距预期的更广泛的趋势在工作中的世界。 ”就在你从未听过的网卡，它自称为“一个中心，战略思维的美国政府，向国家情报局局长（情报局局长） ，并提供总统和高级决策者与分析的外交政策问题，进行了审查和协调整个情报共同体“ 。

Sometime in the 1990s, its analysts embarked on a project, released in 1997, called Global Trends 2010, a best-guesstimate about the nature of our world 13 years hence.有时在上世纪90年代，其分析师展开了一个项目，于1997年获释，所谓的全球趋势2010年，最好的猜测的性质，我们的世界因此， 13年。 In 2000, Global Trends (GT) 2015 came out, followed in 2004 by GT 2020.在2000年，全球趋势（燃气轮机） 2015年出来，随后在2004年燃气轮机2020年。

As the 2020 project proudly described the process, the IC “consulted experts from around the world in a series of regional conferences to offer a truly global perspective.作为2020年项目自豪地描述这个过程中，机构或社区“征求来自世界各地的专家在一系列区域会议，以提供一个真正的全球性的观点。 We organized conferences on five continents to solicit the views of foreign experts…” In other words, no prospective stone was left prospectively unturned to keep top US policymakers up to speed.我们举办的会议上5大洲征求外国专家... “换句话说，没有未来的石头离开前瞻性竭尽全力使美国的决策者加速。

Recently, this最近，这个 Washington Post华盛顿邮报 headline caught my eye: “Reduced Dominance Is Predicted for US” As the Post’s Joby Warrick and Walter Pincus noted, the latest of the NIC’s reports, Global Trends 2025 , due out this December, was previewed in a speech by Thomas Fingar, “the US intelligence community’s top analyst.” Officially, he’s the Deputy Director of National Intelligence for Analysis as well as the Chairman of the National Intelligence Council.标题引起了我的眼睛： “减少的优势，预计美国”作为邮政的 Joby瓦里克和沃尔特平卡斯指出，最新的网络信息中心的报告， 2025年全球趋势 ，预计今年12月，是预先在一次讲话中托马斯芬格， “美国情报界顶级的分析师。 ”据官方统计，他的副主任的国家情报的分析，以及主席的国家情报委员会。 The report is already supposedly being briefed to presidential candidates McCain and Obama.该报告已经是理应被介绍到总统候选人麦凯恩和奥巴马。

Indeed, talking to the 2008 Intelligence and National Security Alliance Analytic Transformation Conference, Fingar praised the IC for its job restoring “confidence in the product” (a not-so-subtle reference to what the Bush administration did to its reputation back in 2002-2003) and hyped the IC’s “17 years of forecasting and scenario building.” He then previewed the upcoming “product” on the futuristic intelligence block, “intended to shape the thinking of [the] new administration,” and here was his prediction of America’s fate as 2025 approaches:事实上，谈论2008年情报和国家安全联盟会议分析转化，芬格称赞该集成电路的工作恢复信心“产品” （一不那么微妙的提法是布什政府并未对自己的声誉早在2002年- 2003年）和宣传该集成电路的“ 17岁的预报和建设的情况。 ”然后，他预览了即将到来的“产品”的未来智能块“ ，旨在形成的思维[的]新政府， ”这里是他的预测美国2025年的命运办法：

“[T]he US will remain the preeminent power, but that American dominance will be much diminished over this period of time… the overwhelming dominance that the United States has enjoyed in the international system in military, political, economic, and arguably, cultural arenas is eroding and will erode at an accelerating pace with the partial exception of military. “ [ Ť ]美国，他将仍然是杰出的权力，但美国的主导地位将大大削弱了这段时间...压倒性优势，美国已享有国际制度中的军事，政治，经济，可以说，文化舞台上正在削弱，并会削弱在加速与部分例外的军事。 But part of the argument here is that by 15 years from now, the military dimension [that] will remain the most preeminent will be the least significant…”但是，一部分的论点是， 15年从现在开始，军事层面[这]将仍然是最杰出的将是最重要的... “

I’d have to guess that NIC members are, at this very moment, doing a little rewriting on this issue as the known world descends around our projected ears.我不得不猜测，网卡成员，在这个非常时刻，做了一点修改关于这个问题的已知的世界降临在我们预计的耳朵。 Anyway, just how useful was Fingar’s “news,” even before our financial system plunged into the maw?总之，只要有用的是如何芬格的“新闻” ，甚至在我们的金融体系陷入肚？

Let’s face it, if the Post headline had said: “America [or China, or a clique of petro-states] Predicted to Rule World in 2025″ that might have been news.让我们面对现实吧，如果邮报说： “美国[或中国，或小集团的石油国家]预测规则在2025年世界” 可能已经消息。 But if you’ve been paying the slightest attention to your daily paper, Fingar’s speech offered a hint of a future hardly more illuminating than a headline saying, “Water predicted to remain in Indian Ocean in 2025.”但是，如果你已经付出丝毫注意您的每日文件，芬格的讲话提供了一个暗示，未来更多的启发几乎比一个标题说， “水预计将继续留在印度洋到2025年。 ”

Birthed by the T. Rex of global intelligence combines, his revelation represents, at best, a hen’s egg of knowledge. Birthed的霸王龙的全球情报结合，他的启示是，最好的，一个鸡蛋的知识。 Admittedly, such a prediction might have taken real insight back in 1997 when the US was riding high, and only a handful of declinist scholars like诚然，这种预测可能采取真正了解早在1997年，当时美国正骑着高，只有少数学者一样declinist Immanuel Wallerstein伊曼纽尔沃勒斯坦 were是 considering the possibility考虑是否有可能 that American power was not on a path to new heights.美国没有权力道路上达到新的高度。 But in 2008, did anyone really need costly conferences on five continents to imagine a future in which that power would be in decline, a forecast that is now a commonplace of bestselling book titles and could have been read at但是，在2008年，没有人真的需要昂贵的会议上五大洲的想像未来，这一权力将下降的预测，现在是一个平常的畅销书冠军，本来可以读取 websites like this one像这样的网站之一 years ago?几年前？

The Future Behind Us 今后我们背后

Still, I couldn’t resist zipping back to 1997 and then 2000 just to get a sense of what — when Washington was riding high — the IC thought lay ahead in 2010 and 2015.不过，我无法抗拒压缩到1997年，然后2000年刚刚获得一种什么-当华盛顿骑高-集成电路思想摆在面前的2 0 10年和2 0 15年。

Three years after it made its 1997 findings public, the NIC’s analysts saw nothing but signs of the increasing dominance of American power in the global future.三年后，其1997年所作的调查结果公开，网络信息中心的分析师认为只不过迹象日益主宰美国的力量在全球的未来。 Like the new administration of that moment, they were bullish on America, so much so that they even critiqued the NIC’s seers of 1997 as weak-kneed on the US: “The effect of the United States as the preponderant power is introduced in GT 2015.像新政府的这一时刻，他们被看好的美国，以至于他们甚至critiqued的NIC的预言家1997年为荏美国： “的影响，美国作为优势力量介绍燃气轮机2015年。 The US role as a global driver has emerged more clearly over the past four years, particularly as many countries debate the impact of ‘US hegemony’ on their domestic and foreign policies.”美国作为一个全球驱动器出现了更加明确地在过去四年里，尤其是许多国家的辩论所产生的影响，美国的霸权，其国内和外交政策。 “

While, in 2000, there seemed no serious obstacles to the growth of American power 15 years in the future, poor Russia remained a declinist state which, fortunately, would “continue to lack the resources to impose its will,” and China faced “an array of political, social, and economic pressures that will increasingly challenge the regime’s legitimacy, and perhaps its survival.” And here was yet more splendid news from the NIC’s point of view: “The global economy, overall, will return to the high levels of growth reached in the 1960s and early 1970s.” Even better, “[i]nternational cooperation will continue to increase through 2015.” (Evidently, they forgot to brief top Bush administration officials on that particular prediction!)虽然，在2000年，人们似乎没有任何严重障碍的增长美国的力量在15年的未来，可怜的俄罗斯仍然是一个declinist状态，幸运的是，将“继续缺乏资源来将其意志强加”和中国面临的“一个一系列的政治，社会和经济的压力将越来越多的挑战政权的合法性，也许它的生存。 “这里又是更加辉煌的消息网卡的观点： ”全球经济从总体上来说，将返回高的增长水平达到20世纪60年代和70年代初。 “甚至更好” ， [一] nternational合作将继续增加至2015年。 “ （显然，他们忘了简短的顶端布什政府官员对这一特定的预测！ ）

Despite some discussion of non-state actors, loose nukes, and a potential “trend toward greater lethality in terrorist attacks” — after all, two American embassies in Africa and the USS Cole had by then been devastated — the IC saw no global wars on terror ahead.尽管取得了一些讨论，非国家行为者，宽松的核武器，以及潜在的“趋势更加致命的恐怖袭击” -毕竟，两名美国使馆在非洲和美国科尔号了当时被破坏-集成电路没有看到全球的战争恐怖未来。 Terrorism was an outlier in a heady world of “globalization” that, in 2015, was remarkably sunny-side up when it came to us.恐怖主义是一种异常的振奋人心的世界“全球化” ，在2015年，显着阳光，一边当它给我们。

As with any document by committee, many of the report’s reigning predictions were carefully qualified elsewhere in the document, a familiar kind of cover-your-butt-ism in which you bravely predict the obvious — and (just in case) its opposite.正如任何文件的委员会，许多报告的卫冕预测仔细合格的其他文件中，一个熟悉的一种支付你的屁股主义在您勇敢地预测明显-和（以防万一）其对面。 The exuberant US economy, to take a typical example, was also described as “vulnerable to a loss of international confidence in its growth prospects that could lead to a sharp downturn, which, if long lasting, would have deleterious economic and policy consequences for the rest of the world.” There was even an appendix (”Four Alternative Global Futures”) that offered modest scenarios in which US power might “wane” somewhat, but here was the IC’s money paragraph for 2015:在旺盛的美国经济，采取一个典型的例子，也称为“脆弱的损失国际社会的信任在其增长前景可能导致急剧下降，如果持续很长时间，会产生有害的经济和政策的后果世界其他地区。 “甚至还有一个附录（ ”四种可供选择的全球期货“ ）提供微薄的情景，其中美国力量可能”衰退“有点，但这里是集成电路的钱为2015年段：

“Experts agree that the United States, with its decisive edge in both information and weapons technology, will remain the dominant military power during the next 15 years. “专家认为，美国，其决定性的优势，这两方面的信息和武器技术，将继续占主导地位的军事实力在未来的15年。 Further bolstering the strong position of the United States are its unparalleled economic power, its university system, and its investment in research and development — half of the total spent annually by the advanced industrial world.为进一步提升的坚定立场，美国是其无与伦比的经济实力，其大学系统，其投资于研究与发展-上半年的总花费每年由世界上先进的工业。 Many potential adversaries, as reflected in doctrinal writings and statements, see US military concepts, together with technology, as giving the United States the ability to expand its lead in conventional warfighting capabilities.”许多潜在的敌人，这反映在理论的著作和报表，看到美国的军事概念，连同技术，使美国的能力，扩大其领先的常规作战能力。 “

Sigh… In the future that’s now behind us, we know just where that sort of thinking led.唉...在未来的日子已成过去，我们知道只是在这样的思想主导。

By 2004, of course, things were beginning to go sour in Bushworld, and so the 2020 study had a somewhat到2004年，当然，事情也开始去酸在Bushworld ，所以2020年研究了某种 more dystopian更多dystopian edge to it.边给它。 (It could pose the question, “US Unipolarity – How Long Can It Last?” even if the answer was: a long time.) And finally, this December, it seems, the “waning” of US power will make it, just a tad late, out of the appendices and into the bloodstream of the future. （这可能会造成问题， “美国单极-多久它最后？ ”即使答案是：很长一段时间。 ）最后，今年1 2月，似乎在“减弱” ，美国权力将使得，公正稍晚些时候，在附录和进入血液的未来。

Handmaidens of Delusion Handmaidens的妄想

What’s undeniably fascinating about these futuristic exercises is the degree to which they reflect the limits of the world of the present as seen from Washington; they reflect, that is, just what Washington has been (and largely still remains) incapable of grasping about the nature of power — and danger — on this planet.什么是不可否认的迷人对这些未来的演习是在何种程度上反映了他们的极限的世界本是从华盛顿，他们反映，也就是说，正是华盛顿一直（基本上仍）无法把握的性质的权力-和危险-这个星球上。 In this way, the IC’s analysts remained handmaidens to delusion, not just when it came to foreign powers, but when it came to our own country.通过这种方式，在IC的分析师仍handmaidens以妄想，不仅时候，外国列强，但是当它来到我们自己的国家。 The Global Trends reports will remain significant documents for future historians who want to chart just how glacially slow was Washington’s realization that the collapse of Soviet power didn’t actually mean American power was destined to be transcendent on Earth.全球发展趋势的报告将继续重要文件为未来的历史学家谁想要图表如何glacially缓慢是华盛顿认识到崩溃的苏维埃政权实际上并不意味着美国的力量注定是至高无上的地球上。

In its predictions, it’s clear that the IC had little better luck getting its agents embedded in the future than it did getting them inside al-Qaeda or into Iran.在其预测，这清楚地表明，集成电路几乎没有得到更好的运气嵌入式其代理人在未来比让他们在基地组织或进入伊朗。 Not surprisingly, given what we know about the bureaucratic morass that is American intelligence, the GT reports have all the faults of intelligence by committee and negotiation — which is why HG Wells, Arthur Clark, Isaac Asimov, George Orwell, and others, who caught something of the strangeness of possible futures, would never have had a chance in hell of succeeding in careers in the IC.这并不奇怪，因为我们所知道的官僚泥沼这是美国情报机构的报告燃气轮机的所有故障的情报委员会和谈判-这就是为什么韦尔斯，阿瑟克拉克，艾萨克阿西莫夫，乔治奥威尔，和其他人，谁捕获一些陌生的期货的可能，永远不会有机会在地狱中获得成功的职业生涯中的集成电路。 Wells’s Martians with their poison gas and flying machines, Orwell’s Big Brother with his “memory hole,” and Huxley’s “feelies” would have been left on the negotiating room floor.威尔斯的火星与毒气和飞行机器，奥威尔的大哥与他的“记忆洞”和赫胥黎的“ feelies ”将一直留在房间地板谈判。 Far too quirky.太多的离奇。 Far too many “discontinuities” involved for the IC.太多的“不连续性”涉及的集成电路。

Better to forecast what the people you brief already believe, raised to the highest predictive power and squared, and skip the oddballs with their strange hunches, the sorts who might actually have a knack for recognizing the shock of the future lurking in the present.更好地预测哪些人介绍一下已经认为，提高到最高的预测能力和平方，并跳过oddballs他们奇怪的预感，谁的种类实际上可能有一个诀窍承认休克未来的潜伏在本。 Don’t pay any mind不要支付任何铭记 , for that matter, to FBI agents reporting the truly strange in the present — like, say, “a 33-year-old French citizen of Moroccan descent” at a flight school who wants to learn how to fly a commercial jet, but就此而言，向联邦调查局报告的真正奇怪的本-想，说， “一名3 3岁的法国公民的摩洛哥后裔”在飞行学校谁想要学习如何飞行的商业飞机，但 not how不是如何 it takes off or lands.它起飞或土地。

What the Global Trends documents represent, then, is not a deep dive into the mysteries of the future, but a series of belly flops by an unbearably obese IC into a barely grasped present.何谓全球发展趋势的文件代表，那么，是不是深潜到神秘的未来，但一系列的肚子拖鞋了令人不能忍受肥胖集成电路到目前几乎没有抓住。 Let 18 intelligence outfits proliferate and one thing is guaranteed: in some future, maybe even tomorrow, no matter how powerful you are, you won’t know what hit you.让18个情报装备增殖和有一件事是保证：在今后的一些，甚至明天，无论多么强大你，你将不知道怎么打你。

If I were the next president, I might prefer to skip the IC, spend a few nights with a little science fiction, peer into the darkness, muster some commonsense, and take a wild guess or two.如果我是下届总统，我可能更愿意跳过集成电路，花了几个晚上的小科幻小说，同行的黑暗，拿出一些常识，并采取野生猜测或两个。

Tom Engelhardt, co-founder of 汤姆恩格尔哈特，共同创办人 the American Empire Project 美利坚帝国项目 , runs the Nation Institute’s TomDispatch.com. 运行民族研究所的TomDispatch.com 。 He is the author of 他是作者 The End of Victory Culture 最终的胜利文化 , a history of the American Age of Denial. 一个历史时代的美国拒绝。 The World According to TomDispatch: America in the New Age of Empire 世界据TomDispatch ：美国新帝国时代 (Verso, 2008), a collection of some of the best pieces from his site, has recently been published. （科罗维， 2008年） ，收集一些最优秀的作品从他的网站，最近已出版。 Focusing on what the mainstream media hasn’t covered, it is an alternative history of the mad Bush years. 侧重于主流媒体还没有涉及，这是另一种历史的疯狂布什岁。

[ Note on Readings : The Global Trends reports are all on line. [注上读 ：全球发展趋势报告都行。 You can read them by clicking here: Global Trends您可以阅读他们的点击这里：全球趋势 2010 2010年 , Global Trends全球发展趋势 2015 2015年 , Global Trends全球发展趋势 2020 2020年 . 。 You can read both of Thomas Fingar's recent speeches by clicking您可以阅读这两个托马斯芬格最近的讲话点击 here这里 (pdf file -- and fair warning, despite his billing as the "top analyst" in the US Intelligence Community, they are almost unbearably banal, soporific, and remarkably incoherent). （ pdf档案-和公平的警告，尽管他的帐单为“顶端分析师”在美国情报界，他们几乎是不可忍受平庸，催眠，并显着不一致） 。 Finally, I wrote about Global Trends 2020 when it came out in 2004.最后，我写的关于到2020年全球发展趋势时，它在2004年。 For any of you who might find that of interest, click对于任何你可能会发现谁的利益，请点击 here这里 .] 。 ]

Copyright 2008 Tom Engelhardt版权所有2008年汤姆恩格尔哈特

Have Your Say: Spying on the Future: The US Intelligence Community as Seers Without Sizzle 你说：间谍的未来：美国情报界的预言家不啸
Please read our请仔细阅读我们的 posting guidelines before posting张贴在发布前的指导方针 . 。
Alternatively或者 you can discuss this report here你可以讨论这份报告在这里 . 。

RSS 的RSS TrackBack URL引用网址

Name (required) 名称（必需）

Mail (will not be published) (required) 邮件（将不会被发表） （必填）

Website 网站

Related News 相关新闻

• Out of the ashes: A New World Order走出废墟：一个新的世界秩序
• Russian president calls for a New World Order俄罗斯总统呼吁建立世界新秩序
• VIDEO: The Corporation视频：公司
• Chinese officials predicted 9/11 attacks中国官员预计9 / 11恐怖袭击
• Is the dollar leading us into a depression?美元是领导我们带入了一个抑郁症？

This entry was posted on Monday, October 6th, 2008 at 7:01 pm and is filed under本条目被张贴在星期一， 08年10月6日在下午7点01 ，并提出下 Contributions & Guests捐款＆客人 . 。 You can follow any responses to this entry through the您可以按照任何反应，这个项目通过 RSS 2.0 2.0 feed. You can饲料。您可以 leave a response留下一个反应 , or或 trackback引用 from your own site.从您自己的网站。

Loading ...载入中...

TOP NEWS DISCUSSIONS 头条新闻讨论

LATEST NEWS DISCUSSIONS 最新消息讨论

Activism & Protest News 积极与抗议新闻 | | Business News 商业新闻 | | Civil & Human Rights News 公民与人权新闻 | | Environmental News 环境新闻 | | Media News 媒体新闻 | | Globalisation News 全球化新闻 | | Web Development News Web开发新闻

ADVERTISEMENTS广告

SITE MAPS网站地图

7/7 7 / 7 Afghanistan阿富汗 Alternative-Energy替代能源 Art艺术 Barack Obama奥巴马 BBC英国广播公司 Big-Brother大兄弟 Bilderberg彼尔德伯格 Biometrics生物识别技术 Bush布什 CCTV中央电视台 Censorship检查 CIA美国中央情报局 Climate-Change气候变化 Cover-Up掩盖 Cults邪教 Culture文化 Database-State数据库的国家 David-Hicks大卫希克斯 David-Ray-Griffin大卫射线格里芬 Debt债务 Democrats民主党 Demos演示 Drugs药品 Education教育 Entertainment娱乐 Environmental News环境新闻 EU欧盟 False-Flag假旗 FBI美国联邦调查局 Fraud诈骗 Free-Speech自由言论 Freemasons济 G8八国集团 Globalization全球化 Guantanamo关塔那摩 Health-News健康新闻 History历史 ID-Cards编号卡 Internet互联网 Iran伊朗 Iraq伊拉克 Israel以色列 John McCain约翰麦凯恩 Law法 Marches游行 Media News媒体新闻 MI5军情五处 MI6军情六处 Microsoft微软 Military军事 MoD国防部 Money金钱 Music音乐 NASA美国宇航局 Neocons新保守主义 New World Order新的世界秩序 NSA国安局 Oil油 Pakistan巴基斯坦 Podcast播客 Police-State警察国家 Propaganda中宣部 Reviews评语 RFID RFID技术 RINF Rumsfeld拉姆斯菲尔德 Science科学 Science & Technology News科技新闻 Secrecy保密 Security安全 Slavery奴隶制 Space空间 Sports体育 Spy间谍 Spying从事间谍活动 Stephen-Lendman斯蒂芬- Lendman Technology技术 Terrorism恐怖主义 Tony-Blair英国首相布莱尔 Torture酷刑 TV电视 UK-News英国新闻 UN联合国 USA-美国， USA-News美国新闻 Video视频 Voting投票 war战争 War & Terrorism News战争与恐怖主义的新闻 Warfare战 White-House白家 Wolfowitz沃尔福威茨 World-News世界新闻 Yahoo雅虎
2003 - 2005 Archives 2003至2005年档案 | 2005 - 2007 Archives 2005年-2 007年档案 | 2007 - 2008 Archives 2007 -2 008档案 | Current Archives目前档案馆 | Past Version |以往版本

About 大约 | | DVD Store DVD商店 | | Opinion 意见 | | Reviews 评语 | | Special Guests 特别来宾 | | Webmasters 网站管理员