SchNEWS DRILLS FOR THE TRUTH IN PEAK OIL THEORY schnews演習，為真理，在繁忙的石油理論
SchNEWS schnews | From Transition Town workshops to the city slickers at the Financial Times (to over-excited pieces in ill-researched journals like SchNEWS), there’s been more and more interest in ‘Peak Oil’. |由過渡城市講習班，以城市slickers在金融時報（過度興奮件在虐待研究期刊一樣， schnews ） ，有越來越多的興趣， '山頂的石油' 。 Perhaps it’s got something to do with the price of a barrel reaching $140+ (down to a mere $115ish at the mo), and more noticeably for most, petrol at the pumps is at record highs.或許是得到了一些事都與價格每桶達到140元+ （下降至一個僅僅美元115ish在MO ）的，更明顯的為最，汽油在泵是在紀錄高位。 Not to mention UK power companies pushing the burden on to punters with up to 35% price increases.更遑論英國電力公司推動的負擔，以投注者高達35 ％ ，價格上漲。
So, is the reality of scarce energy really beginning to hit home?因此，是現實稀少的能源真的開始打回家呢？ Is the oil now running out?是石油，現在失控？
The basic premise is what’s known as Hubbert’s Peak.基本前提是什麼的被稱為胡伯特的高峰期。 Oil, a finite commodity with an ever expanding demand, will reach its halfway point somewhere in the early 2000s (now) and from then on will irreversibly decline.石油，有限的商品與不斷擴大的需求，將達到它的中途點某處，在2000年早期， （現在） ，從那時起，將不可逆轉地下降。 Hubbert developed his theory in the 1950s when he predicted that America’s domestic oil would peak by the mid 70s.胡伯特發展他的理論在20世紀50年代時，他預測說，美國的國內石油會高峰期70年代中期。 In the mid-80s they realised he was right.在八十年代中期，他們意識到他是正確的。 Since then others have taken his predictions and expanded them to fit the whole globe, where the consensus has been for a peak in the first decade of the 21st century.自那時以來已採取別人，他的預言和擴大他們，以適應整個地球，那裡的共識，已為高峰期，在第一個十年的二十一世紀。
Scary stuff, and not just for gas guzzling SUV drivers but for all of us; it’s oil that fuels the equipment that sows and reaps our crops (and makes the pesticides to slowly kill us with blemish-free uniform produce) and oil that fuels the trucks that drive the food to our shops.可怕的東西，而不是只為氣體guzzling SUV的司機，但對我們所有人來說，它的石油燃料的設備母豬和得到我們的作物（使農藥，慢慢殺死我們，與污點-免費統一製作）和石油燃料卡車驅動食物對我們的商店。 Add to this plastics, fertilisers, and all the other by products it becomes easy to predict apocalypse if the pumps ever run dry (see加入此塑料，化肥，和所有其他產品，它很容易預測的啟示，如果水泵運行以往任何時候都幹（見 SchNEWS 499 schnews 499 ). ） 。
Something like this actually happened not so long ago, back in the ‘90s, in that wacky dictatorship called North Korea.像這樣的實際情況並非如此，前不久，早在九十年代，在這古怪專政，所謂的北韓。 The industrialised and oil dependent nation found itself without petroleum after its sole provider - the Soviet Union - collapsed.工業化和石油依賴的國家本身沒有發現石油後，其唯一供應商-蘇聯-崩潰。 The result was that, far from western eyes, over a million people died as the infrastructure collapsed.結果是，到目前為止，從西方人眼裡，超過100萬人死亡，作為基礎設施的崩潰。 And, so warns the Peak Oil doomsayers, this could happen on a global scale.和，因此，警告的高峰期油doomsayers ，這可能發生在全球範圍內。
WELL WELL WELL 以及，以及，以及
All of this has some anarcho-primitivists jumping with glee at the prospect of the imminent collapse of earth-raping industrial capitalist society.這一切，有一些anarcho - primitivists跳躍與吉利在展望即將崩潰的地球強姦工業資本主義社會。 But, before you stock up on tinned goods, shotgun cartridges and bottled water, here’sa few things to consider:但之前，你的股票了對罐頭商品，獵槍子彈和瓶裝水，以下幾件事要考慮：
Firstly, there’s no oil shortage.首先，有沒有什麼石油短缺。 This may come as a bit of a surprise to all those who’ve been watching the prices rise and rise.這可能是因為有點感到意外，所有這些誰已經看價格興起和增多。 As the Saudis recently pointed out to outgoing President Bush - pumping more oil won’t lower the price.作為沙特最近指出，即將離任的美國總統布什-抽水更多的石油將不會降低價格。 Actually, there’sa glut of oil in the supply markets.其實，有過剩的石油供應市場。 The Iranians (one of the oil nations pumping under their maximum capacity) have tankers full of the stuff that they just can’t shift because no one wants it.伊朗人（其中一個石油泵站聯合國根據其最高容量）油輪充分的東西，他們只是不能移，因為沒有人要它。 What’s lacking is refining capacity.有什麼缺乏的是煉油能力。
While oil use in the US has increased 35% in the last 30 years, no new refineries have been built to keep up with demand.而石油的使用，在美國增加了35 ％ ，在過去30年來，沒有新的煉油廠已建成，以配合需求。 The ability to turn oil into petrol, diesel, aviation fuel etc is massively underdeveloped by the oil corporations, who generally like to keep refining to ‘safe’ (ie Western and friendly) countries.的能力，把油到汽油，柴油，航空燃油等，是大量欠發達由石油企業，誰普遍想保留的精煉，以'安全' （即西方和友好國家） 。 By artificially creating a bottleneck in the amount of usable oil, the price just goes up and up, leading to massive profits for the oil business as this nice little scam can keep functioning.由人為地創造一個瓶頸，在數額的可用油，價格只是雲和，導致大量的利潤為石油生意，因為這尼斯小騙案可以繼續運作。 Exxon Mobil made profits of $11.8 bn in the last quarter alone, and the other big five oil companies are making similarly obscene dosh.埃克森美孚利潤11.8元英國國民在最後一個季度，僅及其他大5間油公司正在作出同樣的色情dosh 。 The scam has worked pretty well so far.騙案的工作相當不錯，至今。
The predictions of world oil reserves are based on proven, reachable oil.預測世界石油儲量的基礎上證明，可達石油。 This is a tricky concept because, as it turns out, there’sa whole lot of ‘unproven’ marginal oil that’s already making its way on to world markets.這是一個棘手的概念，因為，正如原來，有很多'未經證實'邊際石油的已經作出自己的方式對世界市場。 The most known about of these are the tar sands of Alberta, Canada.最知道這些都是瀝青砂的Alberta ，加拿大。 Until very recently (when the technology became economical on a large scale) these were considered ‘unproven,’ yet a lot of these are now making their way to the US (and world) oil markets.直到最近， （當技術成為經濟上一個大型） ，這些被認為是'未經證實，但有很多，這些都是現在他們的方式向美國（和世界）石油市場。
The tars sands, also known as bitumen, are a very dirty form of oil, one that’s very expensive, polluting and energy hungry to exploit and process.該焦油砂，也稱為瀝青，是一個非常骯髒的形式，油，一，這是非常昂貴，污染和能源飢餓，剝削和進程。 It takes the equivalent of one barrel of oil to extract six barrels of oil from the tar sands.它相當於1每桶石油中提取6桶石油，從瀝青砂。 They also happen to be located in an area of unspoilt natural wilderness, but hey, what profitable minerals aren’t these days?他們也有可能發生將設在面積未受破壞的自然原野，但嘿，什麼有利可圖的礦物質，這些天？ Canada’s tar sands contain an amount of oil in excess of that under Saudi Arabia’s sands.加拿大的焦油砂含有的金額，在石油過剩，根據沙特阿拉伯的金沙。 And exploiting them is fast becoming its most profitable activity.並利用他們正迅速成為其最有利可圖的活動。
Venezuela has similar deposits of bitumen in Orinoco, and significantly larger than Canada’s.委內瑞拉也有類似的存款在奧里諾科瀝青，並顯著大於加拿大的。 They’re estimated at around 260 million barrels (ie another Saudi Arabia) on top of the 80 million or so of ordinary oil.他們估計約260萬桶（即另一個沙特阿拉伯）對上方的80000000或使普通石油。 They’re easier to exploit than Canada’s and are barely touched.他們很容易利用比加拿大的和幾乎感動。 It’s no wonder that the US has got such a keen interest in the actions of Venezuelan President, Hugo the Chavmeister.這是不奇怪的說，美國已得到這樣一個濃厚的興趣，行動的委內瑞拉總統查韋斯，雨果該chavmeister 。 Industry experts had been saying that these areas will become among the world’s future energy heartlands, but that until oil was worth over $40 per barrel it was too expensive to develop.業內專家一直在說，這些地區將成為躋身世界未來能源的市鎮，但直到石油，價值超過40 ％的每桶這是太昂貴，發展下去。 Oil’s now worth over $100 and will be so for some time to come, so go figure.石油的現在價值超過100元，並會因此在今後一段時間內，所以到的數字。
CRUDE THOUGHTS 原油的思考
A real danger of Peak Oil, or rather, the fear of peak oil, is that it risks handing states and corporations even more planet-wrecking power.一個真正的危險山頂油，或者更確切地說，恐懼的高峰石油，是因為它的風險移交國家和企業更行星的破壞力量。 If people believe the oil is running out, then pressure from consumers and businesses alike is to find more at any cost.如果人們相信，石油是失控的話，壓力來自消費者和企業是要找到更多不惜任何代價。 This is already being written into the US election strategy of the republicans, where John McCain is promoting drilling in the Arctic Circle as a way out of the energy ‘crisis’.這是已經被寫進了美國大選的策略，共和黨，如果麥凱恩是促進鑽井在北極圈作為一個出路的能源'危機' 。
This could lead to a seriously deadly irony: The warnings of Peak Oil by environmentalists could lead to the erosion of the public’s psychological barriers protecting the few remaining areas of wilderness left.這可能導致嚴重的致命的諷刺：警告，山頂石油環保可能導致的侵蝕公眾的心理障礙，保護少數，其餘地區的荒野離開。 There’s oil in unknown (but quite possibly huge) quantities in Greenland, as well as plenty in Alaska, where the Bush junta has already green-lighted the destructive process of exploring and exploiting.還有的石油在未知的（但很可能是巨大的）的數量在格陵蘭，以及很多在阿拉斯加，而布什軍政府已經綠明亮的破壞性的探索過程和剝削。 The Russians have laid their claim to their chunk of the Arctic Circle too, with an eye to expansion for more oil.俄羅斯奠定了他們聲稱他們的大塊北極圈太多，著眼於擴大為更多的石油。
And, in a genuinely insane piece of economic logic, as global warming melts the Arctic’s frozen seas, the previously unreachable oil reserves that lay under the ice become more exploitable, and, as they are burned, yet more undersea oil becomes available. ，並在一個真正瘋狂的一塊經濟的邏輯，隨著全球變暖融化，北極的凍結公海，以前無法石油儲備，奠定下的冰變得更加利用，而且，正如他們被燒毀，但更多的海底石油成為可用。 Or if that runs out there’s always the Antarctic…或如果違背了總有南極…
And if these reserves still don’t prove to be quite enough to satisfy demand, there’s always ole king coal.如果這些儲備，仍然沒有被證明是相當不夠的，以滿足需求，總會有機會的OLE國王煤。 China, main producers of the world’s plastic consumer tat, is rich in coal but virtually empty of large oil deposits.中國，主要生產的世界塑料消費達，有豐富的煤，但幾乎空白的大型石油儲藏。
To keep their economy expanding at its current pace they are building two coal fired power stations a week.以保持其經濟，擴大在其目前的速度，他們正在建設兩個燃煤發電廠一個星期。 However, they need oil as well for their cars and trucks (and tanks).不過，他們需要的石油，以及為他們的小汽車和卡車中（和坦克） 。 As oil’s expensive and foreign suppliers can be notoriously unreliable (they haven’t as yet turned to Amercian-style invasion of oil producers) what they really crave is a domestic source of oil, which they don’t have.作為石油的昂貴和外國供應商可以眾所周知的是不可靠的（他們還沒有轉向amercian式入侵石油生產國）什麼他們真的渴望的是國內的石油來源，而他們沒有。
Or at least didn’t, until they turned to the combined wisdom of the Nazis and the apartheid-era South Africans.或者至少是沒有，直到他們轉向結合的智慧，納粹和種族隔離時期的南非。 Both the Nazis during the war and the South Africans during sanctions found it hard to import oil.無論是納粹在戰爭期間和南非的制裁期間，發現難以進口石油。 Luckily for them a German scientist found a way to turn coal into synthetic oil, known as the Fischer-Tropsch Synthesis.幸好他們來說是一項德國科學家找到了一種方法，把煤轉化合成油，眾所周知，由於費托合成。 It’sa very energy hungry process (of course) and needless to say massively polluting (obviously) but it does mean that, even if oil is tricky to get hold of, you can just magic some out of coal - kind of like a very dirty alchemy that’s bad for the planet.這是非常能源飢餓的過程（當然）和不用說，大量污染（顯然） ，但它意味著，即使石油是棘手的掌握，您也可以只魔術一些煤-種一樣，一個很骯髒的煉丹術認為，不好的為地球。
China has already constructed its first huge synthetic oil refinery in Chinese Mongolia.中國已經建造了第一次龐大的綜合煉油廠在中國蒙古。
PRICE OF SUCCESS? 成功的代價呢？
The current cost of oil, often mistaken as a indicator of its scarcity, is actually driven by far more complex forces.目前的成本，油，往往誤以為作為一個指標，其稀少，實際上是驅動複雜得多的力量。
As a commodity like any other, it’s traded on the international markets via brokers.作為一種商品像任何其他，它的交易在國際市場通過經紀人。 In recent years the power of the cartel that set the price of oil, OPEC, has been significantly reduced, and now it’s the speculators that call the shots on its price (more or less - OPEC still caries a lot of weight, but it’sa player now rather than the whole game).在近年的權力，卡特爾所訂的石油價格，歐佩克，已大大減少，而現在的炒家的呼籲，槍聲就其價格（更多或更少-歐佩克仍然齲了不少重量，但這是Player現在，而不是整場比賽） 。 That means that, as long as the price of oil is rising, speculators will push the price even higher.這意味著，只要石油價格上升，炒家將推動價格甚至更高。
It’s estimated that as much as 60% of the price of today’s oil is pure speculation.據估計，高達60 ％的價格，今天的油價是純屬揣測。 To give an example of the logic of nonsense capitalism: Today oil is worth, say $125 a barrel.舉一個例子的邏輯荒謬的資本主義：今天，石油是值得說， 125元一桶。 As the price is going up, you, a speculator, figure that if you buy some at that price today, you can sell it in a week or two for $135.由於價格持續上升，你，投機者，這一數字如果您購買一些價格在今天，你可以賣掉它在一周或兩週為135元。 Because you’re buying oil, other speculators have more confidence the price will continue upwards, so they’re happy to pay $130 after you.因為您購買石油，其他炒家有更多的信心，價格會繼續向上，所以他們很樂意支付130元後你。
This continues until no one who actually needs to use oil for their cars, homes or businesses etc. can even afford to refill their zippo lighters, at which point the entire economy crashes, taking the price of oil with it.這種情況持續下去，直到沒有人究竟是誰需要使用石油為他們的汽車，在家中或企業等，甚至可以負擔充值他們的賊婆打火機，此時整個經濟體系的崩潰，同時石油價格與它。
In fact, herein lies one of the central flaws in the theory of peak oil - supply and demand: that fundamental essential of capitalism.在事實上，這是一個把中央的缺陷，在理論高峰石油-供應和需求：基本的必要的資本主義。 If the price of oil goes up as its demand goes up (and its availability goes down) then at some point it will be too expensive for oil based industrial capitalism to afford.如果石油價格上升，作為其需求上升（及其有效性下降） ，然後在某個點，這將過於昂貴，石油為基礎的工業資本主義的負擔。 At that point we enter a new depression/recession.在這一點上，我們進入了一個新的抑鬱症/衰退。 Businesses collapse, people can’t afford to run their cars, factories grind to a halt and so on.企業的崩潰，人們不能運行他們的汽車，工廠，磨碎，以制止等。 The effect of a depression means that, with the entire economy in free fall, the demand for oil drops.影響一抑鬱症的手段，與整個經濟的免費下降，對石油的需求下降。 As the demand drops so does its price, until at some point people can afford to buy it again, and, hurrah, capitalism reasserts itself (albeit in a leaner, less carbon-heavy form).由於需求下降，那麼它的價格，直到在某個點的人可以買得起它再次，並hurrah ，資本主義重申本身（儘管在一個精簡，減少碳-沉重的形式） 。
DRILLER KILLER 鑽機殺手
The truth is that the oil has already peaked for Western multinationals.事實是，石油已經達到高峰，為西方跨國公司。 In the 70s, major Western oil giants controlled over half the world’s oil, they now only own 13%.在70年代，西方主要石油巨頭控制超過半數的世界石油，他們現在只有自己的13 ％ 。 As Arjun Murti, an energy analyst at Goldman Sachs puts it: “ What we have now is geopolitical peak oil. ”作為印度的阿帕馬爾蒂，能源高盛分析師所說： “ 我們現在是地緣政治的高峰石油 ” 。
There’s plenty of oil left, but it’s all in either politically unstable / US-unfriendly states (Iraq, Iran, Russia) or difficult and expensive to get at (the Arctic, Canadian tar sands).有各種各樣的石油離開，但它的一切，無論在政治上的不穩定/美不友好的國家（伊拉克，伊朗，俄羅斯）或困難和昂貴，以獲得在（北極，加拿大焦油沙） 。 These alternative sources of fossil fuels could keep us going well into the future, past our lifetimes and maybe even that of our grandchildren.這些替代來源的化石燃料，可以讓我們去到未來，過去我們的有生之年，甚至認為我們的子孫。 The problem is: exactly that.問題是：正是這一點。 The effect of burning a trillion tons of coal and perhaps a trillion barrels of oil is that the planet will burn up faster than a petrol-soaked moth near a candle.影響焚燒萬億噸標準煤，也許1萬億桶石油的是，這個星球將燒傷快，比汽油浸泡蛾附近的蠟燭。 The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (the world’s leading authority) predict a global temperature rise of at least 3°C by 2050, with further predictions that CO² and climate temperatures will rise and rise.政府間氣候變化專門委員會（世界領先的權力機構）預測，全球溫度上升至少3 ° C時，到2050年，與進一步預測，合作²和氣候，氣溫將興起和增多。
Mother nature has been steadily locking away excess carbon under the ground for the last three billion years in order to maintain a steady, liveable temperature for all of us life-forms.大自然一直在穩步鎖定遠離過剩的碳下，地面為去年30.0億年，以維持一個穩定，適於居住的溫度對我們所有生命形式。 Suddenly, us wayward children have begun reversing the process, sticking it back in the air.突然，我們任性的孩子已開始扭轉過程中，堅持這回在空氣中。 In the process we’re experimenting with the atmosphere on an unprecedented scale, causing massive changes to the climate and biosphere, driving many species to extinction on a par with the extinction of the dinosaurs.在這個過程中我們正在試點，與氣氛中就以前所未有的規模，造成巨大的改變，氣候和生物圈保護區，駕駛許多物種的滅絕就等同於滅絕的恐龍。
The real problem isn’t that we’re going to run out of fossil fuels.真正的問題是，不是我們要去一發不可收拾的化石燃料。 The problem is what happens when we don’t…問題是，會發生什麼事我們不…
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Related News 相關新聞
- We Must Imagine a Life Without Oil我們必須想像一個生活無油
- Leave it in the ground!將它留在地面上！
- Iraq War May Have Increased Energy Costs by $6 Trillion伊拉克戰爭可能會有所增加的能源成本由六○○○○○○○○○○○○美元
- The First Signs of “Peak Gas”?第一跡象“高峰期氣體”呢？
- Oil: A global crisis石油：一場全球性危機
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Latest Headlines 最新的新聞標題
- Ron Paul Kicks Off Campaign for Liberty羅恩保羅展開運動，為自由
- Chomsky: Britain Failed To Stop US Shameful Acts喬姆斯基：英國未能阻止美國的可恥行為
- Labour proposes huge increase in state surveillance勞工建議大幅增加，國家監察
- SchNEWS DRILLS FOR THE TRUTH IN PEAK OIL THEORY schnews演習，為真理，在繁忙的石油理論
- Bush Seeks to Affirm a Continuing War on Terror布什的目的，肯定持續反恐戰爭
- Protesters denied access to attorneys, forced to march in leg shackles, ACLU charges示威者拒絕進入律師，被迫在三月腿的桎梏中解放出來，美國公民自由聯盟收費
- POLITICS DRIVEN BY FICTION: MADE FOR TV政治驅動的小說：為電視
- Diebold Finally Admits its Voting Machines Drop Votes diebold終於承認其投票機的下拉票
- Blair has no right to lecture on the rule of law布萊爾無權講座，法治
- 3,000 Vets, War Protesters Hand-Deliver Their Message 3000獸醫，戰爭的示威者手提供他們的信息
More更多 Breaking News突發新聞
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