Sunday, October 19th, 2008 星期天， 08年10月19日
Turn Them Into Public Utilities 使他們成為公用事業
By Mike Whitney網易惠特尼
“If you made it past the credit crisis, you are not making it past the economic carnage.” Meredith A. Whitney, market analyst at Oppenheimer & Company “如果你使過去的信用危機，你不會使過去的經濟大屠殺。 ”梅雷迪思惠特尼字母a.市場分析師奧本海默公司
Information Clearinghouse信息中心 “ | It worked. “ |這工作。 So far.到目前為止。 The credit markets have begun to thaw.信貸市場已開始解凍。 Overnight Libor (London Interbank Offered Rate) dropped 27 basis points to 1.67 percent, the lowest level since September 2004.隔夜倫敦銀行同業拆借利率（倫敦同業拆放利率）下跌了27個基點，至1.67百分之以來的最低水平2004年9月。 Three month Libor shed 40 basis points this week to 4.42 percent. 3個月倫敦銀行同業拆借利率下跌40個基點本週百分之4.42 。 The Libor-OIS spread and TED spread are edging downward, too.在倫敦銀行同業拆借利率，隔夜指數掉期合約傳播和蔓延的TED是小幅下降了。 The VIX, the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index—also known as the “fear index”–has skyrocketed to 80, a new record.波動率指數，芝加哥期權交易所波動率指數，也稱為“恐懼指數”已飆升至80 ，一個新的記錄。 But that is to be expected; after all, Wall Street is in a panic.但是，這是預料之中，畢竟，華爾街的恐慌。 The truth is, interbank lending is beginning to ease and the financial system has begun to function a bit more like it should.事實是，銀行間借貸已開始緩和，金融系統已經開始運作有點像它應該。
That doesn’t mean we’re out of the woods by a long shot.這並不意味著我們正在走出困境的長鏡頭。 The stock market will probably lose another 15 to 20 percent, unemployment will soar, real estate will continue to crash, and consumer spending will dry up. That’s all part of the hard landing ahead.股市可能會失去15至百分之二十，失業率將上升，房地產將繼續崩潰，消費者支出將乾涸。這是所有部分的硬著陸之前。 But at the end of the day, some part of the credit-distribution system will still continue to function.但是在一天結束的時候，一部分信貸分配制度仍將繼續發揮作用。 That wasn’t always a certainty.這並不總是一個確定性。 Before the EU finance ministers announced their plan to recapitalize the banking system, by injecting capital and guaranteeing deposits and interbank lending, the world was on its way to a complete financial meltdown.在歐盟財長宣布計劃重組銀行系統，通過注入資本並保證存款和銀行間借貸，世界上以一個完整的金融崩潰。 The EU, led by British Prime Minister Gordon Brown, pulled the world back from the brink of annihilation.歐盟，由英國首相戈登布朗，退出世界從瀕臨滅絕。 It may be the greatest story of our generation, and very few people even know what really happened.這可能是最偉大的故事，我們這一代人，只有極少數人甚至不知道究竟發生了什麼。 The system was completely frozen in place.該系統是完全凍結到位。 Interbank lending had stopped, major corporations were unable to meet payroll because they couldn’t roll over their short term debt.銀行間的貸款已經停止，主要的公司都無法滿足工資，因為他們不能推出他們的短期債務。 Cargo ships were stuck in ports around the world because buyers couldn’t get Letters of Credit.貨船被滯留在港口世界各地的買家，因為無法獲得信用證。 As analyst John Mauldin said, “Just as the business world is dependent upon commercial paper as its life blood, the world of global trade depends on letters of credit (LOC).正如分析師約翰莫爾丁說， “正如世界各地的業務依賴於商業票據作為其生活的血液，世界上的全球貿易取決於信用證（組委會） 。 If you are a manufacturer of a product and want to sell to someone outside your borders, you typically require a letter of credit from the buyer before you load any cargo at a port.如果你是一個製造商的產品，並希望出售給某人之外的邊界，您通常需要的信用證，買方之前，先加載任何貨物在港口。 A letter of credit from a prime bank is considered to be proof of your ability to pay….There are buyer’s and seller’s agents who make sure these things happen seamlessly, and world commerce had grown because of it….信用證從一個主要銀行被認為是證明了你的支付能力... 。有買方和賣方的代理人誰確保這些事情無縫集成，與世界商業的發展，因為它... 。 If you think the problems stemming from a meltdown with the commercial paper markets are threatening to the world economy, they are small potatoes when compared to a seizure in the letter of credit markets.”如果您認為產生的問題崩潰的商業票據市場是威脅世界經濟，它們都是小土豆相比，扣押在信用證的市場。 “
The European initiative forced Secretary of the Treasury Henry Paulson to do the right thing. It is 100 percent certain now that his plan to use the $700 billion bailout to buy-back the non-performing loans and bad mortgage-backed securities from the banks would have failed and led to disaster.歐洲倡議強迫財政部長亨利保爾森做正確的事。這是百分之百的某些現在，他的計劃使用7,000億美元緊急援助，以購回不良貸款和不良抵押貸款支持證券的銀行將失敗，並導致災難。 Paulson stuck by his wacko plan even though more than 200 economists opposed him and the stock market tumbled 8 straight days in a row losing more than 15 percent of its value.保爾森堅持他的怪人計劃，即使超過200個反對他的經濟學家和股市連續下跌8日連續幾天跌幅超過百分之十五的價值。 The EU had to put a gun to his head to force him to do the right thing.歐盟把槍指著他的頭，迫使他做正確的事情。 Paulson’s Wall Street bias is so great that he would have driven the country off the cliff just to reward his dodgy friends with lavish cash giveaways from the US taxpayer.保爾森的華爾街的偏見是如此巨大，他將推動該國從懸崖只是為了獎勵他躲閃的朋友贈送豪華現金從美國納稅人。
In fact, right after the European plan was announced, Paulson convened a meeting of the country’s largest banks so he could hand out $125 billion of freshly-minted, taxpayer-generated loot to shore up their flimsy balance sheets. Citigroup got $25 Billion, as did JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America.事實上，權後，歐盟的計劃宣布後，保爾森召開了一次全國最大的銀行，使他可以手了1250億美元的新鮮鑄造，納稅人產生的掠奪以支撐其站不住腳的資產負債表。花旗集團獲得250億美元一樣，摩根大通和美國銀行。 Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley both netted $10 Billion each.高盛和摩根士丹利都拘捕100億美元每個。 None of these banks had to submit to any type of regulatory investigation to see how much of their asset-base was held in worthless mortgage-backed slop or other structured garbage.這些銀行已經向任何類型的監管調查，以了解他們的大部分資產的基礎是在毫無價值的抵押貸款支持的污水或者其他結構的垃圾。 Paulson never even tried to find out if they are even solvent!保爾森甚至從來沒有試圖找出是否他們甚至溶劑！ On top of that, taxpayer gets no voting rights, no position on the board of directors, and no limits on executive compensation for the $125 billion contribution to Wall Street’s biggest white-collar criminals.最重要的是，納稅人得到沒有投票權，沒有立場的董事，並沒有任何限制對行政賠償的1250億美元的貢獻華爾街最大的白領罪犯。 On Thursday, all of the aforementioned banks reported horrendous quarterly losses, multi-billion dollar write-downs, and more grim warnings on future profits.上週四，上述所有銀行的季度報告可怕的損失，價值數十億美元的減記，更嚴峻的警告對未來的利潤。 It’s clear that Paulson wanted to deliver the bailout money before the public discovered the extent of the carnage.很顯然，保爾森希望提供救助資金在公眾面前的範圍內發現的大屠殺。
There are no assurances that the newly-capitalized banks will use their windfall to increase lending to consumers and businesses as Paulson hopes.有沒有保證，新資本的銀行將利用其橫財，增加貸款的消費者和企業作為保爾森的希望。 The banks know that they’ll be facing some stiff headwinds in the near-future as the the economy contracts and as deleveraging continues.銀行知道，他們將面臨一些激烈的逆風在不久的將來作為經濟合同和作為deleveraging仍在繼續。 It is just as likely that they will hoard their reserves or buy distressed hard-assets rather than expand their dreary loan portfolio.這只是可能，他們將囤積儲備或購買痛心硬資產，而不是擴大其沉悶的貸款組合。 That means credit will continue to tighten and the widely anticipated slowdown will only get worse.這意味著，信貸將繼續加強與普遍預期放緩只會變得更糟。
Currently, the nation is in the grips of a deflationary downturn.目前，國家在對付通貨緊縮的衰退。 Oil and gold have fallen precipitously as have the other commodities which are being dumped on the market in one massive firesale.石油和黃金急劇下降的有其他商品的傾銷市場上的一個巨大的firesale 。 The hedge funds are liquidating at an unprecedented pace which is causing steady price erosion while strengthening the dollar.對沖基金正在清理以前所未有的速度是穩定的價格造成的侵蝕，同時加強美元。 This giant institutional margin call is what is at the heart of the recent wild gyrations in the stock market.這巨大的體制保證金要求就是在心臟最近的野生波動的股票市場。 Investors are withdrawing their money which is forcing the hedgies to sell their liquid assets to reinforce their balance sheets. It’s all about “demand destruction”.投資者撤回他們的錢是迫使hedgies出售其流動資產，以加強其資產負債表。這是關於“需求毀滅” 。
Adding to the turmoil, is the fact that many of the hedge fund managers are “moving to cash” to avoid the equities crash ahead.此外，動盪的是，許多對沖基金經理是“移動的現金” ，以避免股市崩潰前。 In Susan Pullim’s article in the Wall Street Journal, “Smart Money stays on the Sides”, she says:在蘇珊Pullim的文章華爾街日報“物有所值保持雙方” ，她說：
“Some hedge-fund titans have yanked most of their money out of the stock market, a bearish sign amid Monday’s euphoria and an indication of how the hedge-fund business is changing amid chaos. “一些對沖基金巨頭已經淘汰其大部分資金撤出股市，一個看跌的跡象在週一的興奮，並說明如何對沖基金業務正在改變因混亂。
In recent days, Steven Cohen, the hedge-fund manager who runs the $14 billion SAC Capital Advisors, moved about half his funds, or about $7 billion, into money-market and other short-term securities, eliminating much of his fund’s exposure to the stock market, says a person close to the fund.在最近幾天裡，史蒂芬科恩的對沖基金經理誰運行140億美元的SAC資本顧問，移動約一半的資金，或約70億美元，到貨幣市場和其他短期證券，消除他的大部分基金的暴露於股票市場，說一個人接近基金。 Mr. Cohen plans on sitting on the sidelines for the rest of the year — trading a small portfolio himself but keeping shuttered most of the stock portfolios of his other managers.科恩先生計劃的坐在場外，在餘下的一年-貿易的一小組合自己保持關閉，但大部分的股票投資組合的其他管理人員。
Meanwhile, John Paulson, manager of $35 billion Paulson & Co. — who made a spectacularly successful bet against the housing market last year — has much of his fund in cash equivalents.與此同時，約翰保爾森，經理350億美元的保爾森公司-誰作出了引人注目的成功賭對住房市場去年-有許多他的基金在現金等價物。
The retrenchment by Wall Street’s “smart money” crowd is part of a larger effort by hedge funds that have put a total of as much as $400 billion into cash equivalents recently, according to David Kostin, an analyst at Goldman Sachs Group Inc.” (Wall Street Journal)緊縮的華爾街的“聰明錢”人群是一個更大的努力，對沖基金已總共多達4000億美元到現金等價物最近，根據大衛柯斯汀的分析師高盛集團“ （華爾街日報）
The vultures are collecting on the telephone wires waiting for the first bloodied antelope to plop to the ground.在禿鷹正在收集的電話線等待第一次以血淋淋羚羊撲落音到地面。 As the stock market rout continues, they shouldn’t have to wait too long.由於股市繼續潰敗，他們不應該等待太久。 Many pundits are predicting the greatest slump since the 1930s.許多專家預測，最大的蕭條以來， 1930年。 Already, manufacturing has slowed faster than anytime in the last 20 years, jobless claims jumped 461,000 to 3.7 million, housing starts are at a 17 year low, and consumer confidence fell through the floor.目前，製造業已經放慢速度比任何時候都過去20年來，首次申請失業救濟人數增加46.1萬至3.7萬美元，住房開工正處於17年低點，消費者信心指數的發言。 Even worse, Paulson’s bailout does nothing to stop the hemorrhaging of foreclosures which is the source of the disequilibrium in the financial markets.更糟的是，保爾森的救助無助於制止出血的贖回這是來源的不平衡的金融市場。 Congress needs to pass emergency legislation to write down the face-value of distressed mortgages (and provide low interest “fixed rate” loans for the first 25 percent of the revised value) to create an incentive for homeowners to stay put.國會需要通過緊急立法寫下面對價值不安抵押貸款（並提供低利率“固定利率”貸款的百分之二十五第一的訂正價值）創造一個鼓勵房主原地不動。 This massive relief effort will have the added benefit of stabilizing the financial markets by putting a floor under housing prices. Struggling homeowners should be given a helping-hand before the banks.這種大規模的救災工作將有額外的好處是穩定金融市場把地板下的房價。掙扎業主應當給予幫助，另一方面在銀行。
As the former chairman of Goldman Sachs, Henry Paulson’s motives have been suspect from the very beginning of this fiasco. He made sure that the US taxpayer got a shellacking on the purchase of preferred shares in the banks.正如前高盛董事長時，亨利保爾森的動機已嫌疑人從一開始就這一慘敗。他相信，美國納稅人shellacking了關於購買優先股的銀行。 And, he even faked like he was forcing the banks to take the capital they needed to stay afloat.而且，他甚至想偽造，他迫使銀行採取的資本，他們需要維持下去。 (”Please, don’t make me take that $25 billion Mr. Secretary”. What a complete farce!) These are his best buddies and he treats them well. （ “請不要讓我考慮這250億美元，秘書長先生” 。什麼一個完整的鬧劇！ ）這是他最好的朋友，他對待他們。 He hasn’t demanded that they bring their off-book operations back onto their balance sheets, or limit their derivatives exposure, or reduce their leverage to 12 to 1, or come clean with the amount they are holding in Level 3 assets (illiquid, complex mortgage-backed securities) Wall Street veteran Pam Marten summed it up like this:他沒有要求他們將其關閉書行動上回到他們的資產負債表，或限制其衍生物的接觸，或減少其槓桿作用，以12比1 ，或者是乾淨的數額與他們舉行的第3級資產（流動性，複雜的住房抵押貸款證券）華爾街資深帕姆貂總結這樣的：
“What most Americans do not understand, because mainstream media rarely explains it, is the incestuous relationship between the US Treasury and this small band of financial marauders who busted the entire financial system with insane levels of leveraged derivative bets.” Amen. “什麼，大多數美國人並不了解，因為很少主流媒體解釋說這是亂倫的關係，美國財政部和這個小樂隊的金融亂兵誰破獲整個金融系統的瘋狂程度的槓桿衍生賭注。 ”阿門。
Author F. William Engdahl sees a more nefarious motive behind Paulson’s maneuvering and he lays it out in his article, “Behind the Panic: Financial Warfare and the Future of Global Bank Power”:作者威廉恩達爾樓看到一個更加邪惡的動機保爾森的機動和他奠定了它在他的文章， “背後的恐慌：金融戰和未來的全球銀行國” ：
“It now would appear that the Paulson strategy was to use a crisis… to panic the more conservative European Union governments into rushing to the rescue of US toxic waste assets. “現在看來，在保爾森的策略是利用危機...恐慌的較為保守的歐洲聯盟政府將急於拯救美國有毒廢料的資產。
Were that to have happened, it would in the process destroy what was left of sound EU banking and financial institutions, bringing the world one step closer to a global money market controlled by Paulson’s cronies—US-style Crony Capitalism.被認為有發生，這將在這一進程中摧毀剩下歐盟健全的銀行和金融機構，使世界一大步全球金融市場控制的保爾森的密友，美國式的裙帶資本主義。 Crony Capitalism is certainly appropriate here.裙帶資本主義無疑是適當的位置。 Paulson’s predecessor at both Goldman Sachs and at Treasury, Robert Rubin, liked to accuse the Asian bankers of Thailand, Indonesia and other lands hit with the speculative attacks of US-financed hedge funds in 1997 of ‘crony capitalism,’ leaving the impression the crisis was home grown in Asia and not the result of a deliberate executed attack by US-financed financial institutions to eliminate the Asia Tiger model among other goals, and turn Asia into the funder of US debt.保爾森的前任在高盛公司和財政部，魯賓，喜歡指責亞洲銀行家的泰國，印度尼西亞和其他土地遭受投機性攻擊的美資對沖基金在1997年的'裙帶資本主義， '留下的印象危機是土生土長在亞洲，而不是由於故意執行攻擊的美資金融機構，以消除亞洲老虎模型等目標，並把亞洲納入資助美國的債務。
Interesting to note is that Rubin is now a Director of Citigroup, obviously one of Paulson’s crony bank ‘survivors,’ and the bank which to date has had to write off the largest sum in toxic waste securitized assets.值得注意的是，魯賓現在是一個總的花旗集團，顯然是保爾森的裙帶銀行'的倖存者，和銀行迄今已註銷的最大一筆有毒廢物的證券資產。
The Paulson plan is now clearly part of a project to create three colossal global financial giants—Citigroup, JP Morgan Chase and, of course, Paulson’s own Goldman Sachs, now conveniently enough a bank.保爾森計劃在目前顯然是一個項目，建立3個巨大的全球金融巨頭，花旗集團， JP摩根大通，當然，保爾森自己的高盛，現在方便足夠的一家銀行。 Having successfully used fear and panic to wrestle a $700 billion bailout from the US taxpayers, now the big three will try to use their unprecedented muscle to ravage European banks in the years ahead.在成功地用恐懼和驚慌，以摔跤1 7,000億美元緊急援助來自美國的納稅人，即現在的三巨頭將設法利用其前所未有的肌肉肆虐歐洲的銀行在未來的歲月。 So long as the world’s largest financial credit rating agencies—Moody’s and Standard & Poors—are untouched by the scandals and Congressional hearings, the reorganized US financial power of Goldman Sachs, Citigroup and JP Morgan Chase could potentially regroup and advance their global agenda over the coming several years, walking over the ashes of a bankrupt American economy made bankrupt by their follies….只要世界上最大的金融信貸評級機構，穆迪和標準普爾，是不變的醜聞和國會聽證會，重組美國的金融力量高盛，花旗和摩根大通有可能重新集結，並推動其全球議程在今後的幾年裡，行走在灰燼中美國經濟的破產倒閉了他們的愚蠢... 。 This is a fight for the survival of the American Century which has been built since 1939 on the twin pillars of American financial dominance and American military dominance—Full Spectrum, Dominance.” (F. William Engdahl, “Behind the Panic: Financial Warfare and the Future of Global Bank Power” Global Research)這是一個爭取生存的美國世紀已建成自1939年以來的兩大支柱的美國金融優勢和美國的軍事優勢，全光譜，優勢。 “ （威廉恩達爾樓”背後的恐慌：金融戰和未來的全球銀行國“全球研究中心）
Engdahl may be on to something here.恩達爾可能是對的東西在這裡。 Not only will the present crisis lead to further consolidation in the US by crushing local and regional banks which do not have an umbilical chord connecting them directly to the vault at the US Treasury; it could also throw the European financial system into an “every man for himself” frenzy ultimately leading to the breakup of the EU (a prospect that is now widely considered) which would allow the US banking cartel to extend its tentacles to the continent as it has with its equities markets.不僅將目前的危機導致進一步鞏固在美國的沉重的地方和區域的銀行沒有臍和弦連接直接向騰越在美國財政部，它也可以扔歐洲的金融體系轉變為“每個人為自己“的狂熱最終導致分裂，歐盟（一前景，現在人們普遍認為）這將使美國銀行卡特爾其觸角延伸到大陸，因為它已與證券市場。
The damage that the investment banks and their non-bank counterparts (Hedge funds, broker dealers, SIVs etc) have done to the broader economy and the lives of hundreds of millions of people around the world is incalculable.的損害，投資銀行和非銀行對口（對沖基金，經紀交易商， SIVs等） ，這樣做更廣泛的經濟和生活的數以億計的世界各地的人們是無法估量的。 Still, the remedy is simple and straightforward.不過，補救辦法是簡單明了。 The banks in question should be forced to establish their solvency according to “mark to market” evaluations (Triple A MBS=$.22 on the dollar) and if they cannot meet minimal capital standards; they should be taken into receivership, their equity shareholders wiped out, their leading executives removed, and they should be transformed into public utilities under the supervision of the Congress of the United States.該銀行在問題應該被迫建立自己的償付能力根據“商標向市場”評價（三A的MBS = 0.22美元美元） ，如果他們不能滿足最低限度的資本標準，他們應該考慮到接管，其股東消滅，他們的高層領導中，他們應轉變為公用事業的監督下美國國會。 Once the banks are entrusted to our elected officials, we can move on to the Federal Reserve.一旦銀行都委託給我們的民選官員，我們可以轉向美國聯邦儲備委員會。 The “price fixing” and manipulation of interest rates by privately-owned banks is a failed experiment.的“價格操縱”和操縱，利息由私人擁有的銀行是一個失敗的實驗。 It’s time to move on.現在是時候繼續前進。 Abolish the Fed.廢除美聯儲。
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