Sunday, October 19th, 2008 星期天， 08年10月19日
Turn Them Into Public Utilities 使他们成为公用事业
By Mike Whitney网易惠特尼
“If you made it past the credit crisis, you are not making it past the economic carnage.” Meredith A. Whitney, market analyst at Oppenheimer & Company “如果你使过去的信用危机，你不会使过去的经济大屠杀。 ”梅雷迪思惠特尼字母a.市场分析师奥本海默公司
Information Clearinghouse信息中心 “ | It worked. “ |这工作。 So far.到目前为止。 The credit markets have begun to thaw.信贷市场已开始解冻。 Overnight Libor (London Interbank Offered Rate) dropped 27 basis points to 1.67 percent, the lowest level since September 2004.隔夜伦敦银行同业拆借利率（伦敦同业拆放利率）下跌了27个基点，至1.67百分之以来的最低水平2004年9月。 Three month Libor shed 40 basis points this week to 4.42 percent. 3个月伦敦银行同业拆借利率下跌40个基点本周百分之4.42 。 The Libor-OIS spread and TED spread are edging downward, too.在伦敦银行同业拆借利率，隔夜指数掉期合约传播和蔓延的TED是小幅下降了。 The VIX, the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index—also known as the “fear index”–has skyrocketed to 80, a new record.波动率指数，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数，也称为“恐惧指数”已飙升至80 ，一个新的记录。 But that is to be expected; after all, Wall Street is in a panic.但是，这是预料之中，毕竟，华尔街的恐慌。 The truth is, interbank lending is beginning to ease and the financial system has begun to function a bit more like it should.事实是，银行间借贷已开始缓和，金融系统已经开始运作有点像它应该。
That doesn’t mean we’re out of the woods by a long shot.这并不意味着我们正在走出困境的长镜头。 The stock market will probably lose another 15 to 20 percent, unemployment will soar, real estate will continue to crash, and consumer spending will dry up. That’s all part of the hard landing ahead.股市可能会失去15至百分之二十，失业率将上升，房地产将继续崩溃，消费者支出将干涸。这是所有部分的硬着陆之前。 But at the end of the day, some part of the credit-distribution system will still continue to function.但是在一天结束的时候，一部分信贷分配制度仍将继续发挥作用。 That wasn’t always a certainty.这并不总是一个确定性。 Before the EU finance ministers announced their plan to recapitalize the banking system, by injecting capital and guaranteeing deposits and interbank lending, the world was on its way to a complete financial meltdown.在欧盟财长宣布计划重组银行系统，通过注入资本并保证存款和银行间借贷，世界上以一个完整的金融崩溃。 The EU, led by British Prime Minister Gordon Brown, pulled the world back from the brink of annihilation.欧盟，由英国首相戈登布朗，退出世界从濒临灭绝。 It may be the greatest story of our generation, and very few people even know what really happened.这可能是最伟大的故事，我们这一代人，只有极少数人甚至不知道究竟发生了什么。 The system was completely frozen in place.该系统是完全冻结到位。 Interbank lending had stopped, major corporations were unable to meet payroll because they couldn’t roll over their short term debt.银行间的贷款已经停止，主要的公司都无法满足工资，因为他们不能推出他们的短期债务。 Cargo ships were stuck in ports around the world because buyers couldn’t get Letters of Credit.货船被滞留在港口世界各地的买家，因为无法获得信用证。 As analyst John Mauldin said, “Just as the business world is dependent upon commercial paper as its life blood, the world of global trade depends on letters of credit (LOC).正如分析师约翰莫尔丁说， “正如世界各地的业务依赖于商业票据作为其生活的血液，世界上的全球贸易取决于信用证（组委会） 。 If you are a manufacturer of a product and want to sell to someone outside your borders, you typically require a letter of credit from the buyer before you load any cargo at a port.如果你是一个制造商的产品，并希望出售给某人之外的边界，您通常需要的信用证，买方之前，先加载任何货物在港口。 A letter of credit from a prime bank is considered to be proof of your ability to pay….There are buyer’s and seller’s agents who make sure these things happen seamlessly, and world commerce had grown because of it….信用证从一个主要银行被认为是证明了你的支付能力... 。有买方和卖方的代理人谁确保这些事情无缝集成，与世界商业的发展，因为它... 。 If you think the problems stemming from a meltdown with the commercial paper markets are threatening to the world economy, they are small potatoes when compared to a seizure in the letter of credit markets.”如果您认为产生的问题崩溃的商业票据市场是威胁世界经济，它们都是小土豆相比，扣押在信用证的市场。 “
The European initiative forced Secretary of the Treasury Henry Paulson to do the right thing. It is 100 percent certain now that his plan to use the $700 billion bailout to buy-back the non-performing loans and bad mortgage-backed securities from the banks would have failed and led to disaster.欧洲倡议强迫财政部长亨利保尔森做正确的事。这是百分之百的某些现在，他的计划使用7,000亿美元紧急援助，以购回不良贷款和不良抵押贷款支持证券的银行将失败，并导致灾难。 Paulson stuck by his wacko plan even though more than 200 economists opposed him and the stock market tumbled 8 straight days in a row losing more than 15 percent of its value.保尔森坚持他的怪人计划，即使超过200个反对他的经济学家和股市连续下跌8日连续几天跌幅超过百分之十五的价值。 The EU had to put a gun to his head to force him to do the right thing.欧盟把枪指着他的头，迫使他做正确的事情。 Paulson’s Wall Street bias is so great that he would have driven the country off the cliff just to reward his dodgy friends with lavish cash giveaways from the US taxpayer.保尔森的华尔街的偏见是如此巨大，他将推动该国从悬崖只是为了奖励他躲闪的朋友赠送豪华现金从美国纳税人。
In fact, right after the European plan was announced, Paulson convened a meeting of the country’s largest banks so he could hand out $125 billion of freshly-minted, taxpayer-generated loot to shore up their flimsy balance sheets. Citigroup got $25 Billion, as did JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America.事实上，权后，欧盟的计划宣布后，保尔森召开了一次全国最大的银行，使他可以手了1250亿美元的新鲜铸造，纳税人产生的掠夺以支撑其站不住脚的资产负债表。花旗集团获得250亿美元一样，摩根大通和美国银行。 Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley both netted $10 Billion each.高盛和摩根士丹利都拘捕100亿美元每个。 None of these banks had to submit to any type of regulatory investigation to see how much of their asset-base was held in worthless mortgage-backed slop or other structured garbage.这些银行已经向任何类型的监管调查，以了解他们的大部分资产的基础是在毫无价值的抵押贷款支持的污水或者其他结构的垃圾。 Paulson never even tried to find out if they are even solvent!保尔森甚至从来没有试图找出是否他们甚至溶剂！ On top of that, taxpayer gets no voting rights, no position on the board of directors, and no limits on executive compensation for the $125 billion contribution to Wall Street’s biggest white-collar criminals.最重要的是，纳税人得到没有投票权，没有立场的董事，并没有任何限制对行政赔偿的1250亿美元的贡献华尔街最大的白领罪犯。 On Thursday, all of the aforementioned banks reported horrendous quarterly losses, multi-billion dollar write-downs, and more grim warnings on future profits.上周四，上述所有银行的季度报告可怕的损失，价值数十亿美元的减记，更严峻的警告对未来的利润。 It’s clear that Paulson wanted to deliver the bailout money before the public discovered the extent of the carnage.很显然，保尔森希望提供救助资金在公众面前的范围内发现的大屠杀。
There are no assurances that the newly-capitalized banks will use their windfall to increase lending to consumers and businesses as Paulson hopes.有没有保证，新资本的银行将利用其横财，增加贷款的消费者和企业作为保尔森的希望。 The banks know that they’ll be facing some stiff headwinds in the near-future as the the economy contracts and as deleveraging continues.银行知道，他们将面临一些激烈的逆风在不久的将来作为经济合同和作为deleveraging仍在继续。 It is just as likely that they will hoard their reserves or buy distressed hard-assets rather than expand their dreary loan portfolio.这只是可能，他们将囤积储备或购买痛心硬资产，而不是扩大其沉闷的贷款组合。 That means credit will continue to tighten and the widely anticipated slowdown will only get worse.这意味着，信贷将继续加强与普遍预期放缓只会变得更糟。
Currently, the nation is in the grips of a deflationary downturn.目前，国家在对付通货紧缩的衰退。 Oil and gold have fallen precipitously as have the other commodities which are being dumped on the market in one massive firesale.石油和黄金急剧下降的有其他商品的倾销市场上的一个巨大的firesale 。 The hedge funds are liquidating at an unprecedented pace which is causing steady price erosion while strengthening the dollar.对冲基金正在清理以前所未有的速度是稳定的价格造成的侵蚀，同时加强美元。 This giant institutional margin call is what is at the heart of the recent wild gyrations in the stock market.这巨大的体制保证金要求就是在心脏最近的野生波动的股票市场。 Investors are withdrawing their money which is forcing the hedgies to sell their liquid assets to reinforce their balance sheets. It’s all about “demand destruction”.投资者撤回他们的钱是迫使hedgies出售其流动资产，以加强其资产负债表。这是关于“需求毁灭” 。
Adding to the turmoil, is the fact that many of the hedge fund managers are “moving to cash” to avoid the equities crash ahead.此外，动荡的是，许多对冲基金经理是“移动的现金” ，以避免股市崩溃前。 In Susan Pullim’s article in the Wall Street Journal, “Smart Money stays on the Sides”, she says:在苏珊Pullim的文章华尔街日报“物有所值保持双方” ，她说：
“Some hedge-fund titans have yanked most of their money out of the stock market, a bearish sign amid Monday’s euphoria and an indication of how the hedge-fund business is changing amid chaos. “一些对冲基金巨头已经淘汰其大部分资金撤出股市，一个看跌的迹象在周一的兴奋，并说明如何对冲基金业务正在改变因混乱。
In recent days, Steven Cohen, the hedge-fund manager who runs the $14 billion SAC Capital Advisors, moved about half his funds, or about $7 billion, into money-market and other short-term securities, eliminating much of his fund’s exposure to the stock market, says a person close to the fund.在最近几天里，史蒂芬科恩的对冲基金经理谁运行140亿美元的SAC资本顾问，移动约一半的资金，或约70亿美元，到货币市场和其他短期证券，消除他的大部分基金的暴露于股票市场，说一个人接近基金。 Mr. Cohen plans on sitting on the sidelines for the rest of the year — trading a small portfolio himself but keeping shuttered most of the stock portfolios of his other managers.科恩先生计划的坐在场外，在余下的一年-贸易的一小组合自己保持关闭，但大部分的股票投资组合的其他管理人员。
Meanwhile, John Paulson, manager of $35 billion Paulson & Co. — who made a spectacularly successful bet against the housing market last year — has much of his fund in cash equivalents.与此同时，约翰保尔森，经理350亿美元的保尔森公司-谁作出了引人注目的成功赌对住房市场去年-有许多他的基金在现金等价物。
The retrenchment by Wall Street’s “smart money” crowd is part of a larger effort by hedge funds that have put a total of as much as $400 billion into cash equivalents recently, according to David Kostin, an analyst at Goldman Sachs Group Inc.” (Wall Street Journal)紧缩的华尔街的“聪明钱”人群是一个更大的努力，对冲基金已总共多达4000亿美元到现金等价物最近，根据大卫柯斯汀的分析师高盛集团“ （华尔街日报）
The vultures are collecting on the telephone wires waiting for the first bloodied antelope to plop to the ground.在秃鹰正在收集的电话线等待第一次以血淋淋羚羊扑落音到地面。 As the stock market rout continues, they shouldn’t have to wait too long.由于股市继续溃败，他们不应该等待太久。 Many pundits are predicting the greatest slump since the 1930s.许多专家预测，最大的萧条以来， 1930年。 Already, manufacturing has slowed faster than anytime in the last 20 years, jobless claims jumped 461,000 to 3.7 million, housing starts are at a 17 year low, and consumer confidence fell through the floor.目前，制造业已经放慢速度比任何时候都过去20年来，首次申请失业救济人数增加46.1万至3.7万美元，住房开工正处于17年低点，消费者信心指数的发言。 Even worse, Paulson’s bailout does nothing to stop the hemorrhaging of foreclosures which is the source of the disequilibrium in the financial markets.更糟的是，保尔森的救助无助于制止出血的赎回这是来源的不平衡的金融市场。 Congress needs to pass emergency legislation to write down the face-value of distressed mortgages (and provide low interest “fixed rate” loans for the first 25 percent of the revised value) to create an incentive for homeowners to stay put.国会需要通过紧急立法写下面对价值不安抵押贷款（并提供低利率“固定利率”贷款的百分之二十五第一的订正价值）创造一个鼓励房主原地不动。 This massive relief effort will have the added benefit of stabilizing the financial markets by putting a floor under housing prices. Struggling homeowners should be given a helping-hand before the banks.这种大规模的救灾工作将有额外的好处是稳定金融市场把地板下的房价。挣扎业主应当给予帮助，另一方面在银行。
As the former chairman of Goldman Sachs, Henry Paulson’s motives have been suspect from the very beginning of this fiasco. He made sure that the US taxpayer got a shellacking on the purchase of preferred shares in the banks.正如前高盛董事长时，亨利保尔森的动机已嫌疑人从一开始就这一惨败。他相信，美国纳税人shellacking了关于购买优先股的银行。 And, he even faked like he was forcing the banks to take the capital they needed to stay afloat.而且，他甚至想伪造，他迫使银行采取的资本，他们需要维持下去。 (”Please, don’t make me take that $25 billion Mr. Secretary”. What a complete farce!) These are his best buddies and he treats them well. （ “请不要让我考虑这250亿美元，秘书长先生” 。什么一个完整的闹剧！ ）这是他最好的朋友，他对待他们。 He hasn’t demanded that they bring their off-book operations back onto their balance sheets, or limit their derivatives exposure, or reduce their leverage to 12 to 1, or come clean with the amount they are holding in Level 3 assets (illiquid, complex mortgage-backed securities) Wall Street veteran Pam Marten summed it up like this:他没有要求他们将其关闭书行动上回到他们的资产负债表，或限制其衍生物的接触，或减少其杠杆作用，以12比1 ，或者是干净的数额与他们举行的第3级资产（流动性，复杂的住房抵押贷款证券）华尔街资深帕姆貂总结这样的：
“What most Americans do not understand, because mainstream media rarely explains it, is the incestuous relationship between the US Treasury and this small band of financial marauders who busted the entire financial system with insane levels of leveraged derivative bets.” Amen. “什么，大多数美国人并不了解，因为很少主流媒体解释说这是乱伦的关系，美国财政部和这个小乐队的金融乱兵谁破获整个金融系统的疯狂程度的杠杆衍生赌注。 ”阿门。
Author F. William Engdahl sees a more nefarious motive behind Paulson’s maneuvering and he lays it out in his article, “Behind the Panic: Financial Warfare and the Future of Global Bank Power”:作者威廉恩达尔楼看到一个更加邪恶的动机保尔森的机动和他奠定了它在他的文章， “背后的恐慌：金融战和未来的全球银行国” ：
“It now would appear that the Paulson strategy was to use a crisis… to panic the more conservative European Union governments into rushing to the rescue of US toxic waste assets. “现在看来，在保尔森的策略是利用危机...恐慌的较为保守的欧洲联盟政府将急于拯救美国有毒废料的资产。
Were that to have happened, it would in the process destroy what was left of sound EU banking and financial institutions, bringing the world one step closer to a global money market controlled by Paulson’s cronies—US-style Crony Capitalism.被认为有发生，这将在这一进程中摧毁剩下欧盟健全的银行和金融机构，使世界一大步全球金融市场控制的保尔森的密友，美国式的裙带资本主义。 Crony Capitalism is certainly appropriate here.裙带资本主义无疑是适当的位置。 Paulson’s predecessor at both Goldman Sachs and at Treasury, Robert Rubin, liked to accuse the Asian bankers of Thailand, Indonesia and other lands hit with the speculative attacks of US-financed hedge funds in 1997 of ‘crony capitalism,’ leaving the impression the crisis was home grown in Asia and not the result of a deliberate executed attack by US-financed financial institutions to eliminate the Asia Tiger model among other goals, and turn Asia into the funder of US debt.保尔森的前任在高盛公司和财政部，鲁宾，喜欢指责亚洲银行家的泰国，印度尼西亚和其他土地遭受投机性攻击的美资对冲基金在1997年的'裙带资本主义， '留下的印象危机是土生土长在亚洲，而不是由于故意执行攻击的美资金融机构，以消除亚洲老虎模型等目标，并把亚洲纳入资助美国的债务。
Interesting to note is that Rubin is now a Director of Citigroup, obviously one of Paulson’s crony bank ‘survivors,’ and the bank which to date has had to write off the largest sum in toxic waste securitized assets.值得注意的是，鲁宾现在是一个总的花旗集团，显然是保尔森的裙带银行'的幸存者，和银行迄今已注销的最大一笔有毒废物的证券资产。
The Paulson plan is now clearly part of a project to create three colossal global financial giants—Citigroup, JP Morgan Chase and, of course, Paulson’s own Goldman Sachs, now conveniently enough a bank.保尔森计划在目前显然是一个项目，建立3个巨大的全球金融巨头，花旗集团， JP摩根大通，当然，保尔森自己的高盛，现在方便足够的一家银行。 Having successfully used fear and panic to wrestle a $700 billion bailout from the US taxpayers, now the big three will try to use their unprecedented muscle to ravage European banks in the years ahead.在成功地用恐惧和惊慌，以摔跤1 7,000亿美元紧急援助来自美国的纳税人，即现在的三巨头将设法利用其前所未有的肌肉肆虐欧洲的银行在未来的岁月。 So long as the world’s largest financial credit rating agencies—Moody’s and Standard & Poors—are untouched by the scandals and Congressional hearings, the reorganized US financial power of Goldman Sachs, Citigroup and JP Morgan Chase could potentially regroup and advance their global agenda over the coming several years, walking over the ashes of a bankrupt American economy made bankrupt by their follies….只要世界上最大的金融信贷评级机构，穆迪和标准普尔，是不变的丑闻和国会听证会，重组美国的金融力量高盛，花旗和摩根大通有可能重新集结，并推动其全球议程在今后的几年里，行走在灰烬中美国经济的破产倒闭了他们的愚蠢... 。 This is a fight for the survival of the American Century which has been built since 1939 on the twin pillars of American financial dominance and American military dominance—Full Spectrum, Dominance.” (F. William Engdahl, “Behind the Panic: Financial Warfare and the Future of Global Bank Power” Global Research)这是一个争取生存的美国世纪已建成自1939年以来的两大支柱的美国金融优势和美国的军事优势，全光谱，优势。 “ （威廉恩达尔楼”背后的恐慌：金融战和未来的全球银行国“全球研究中心）
Engdahl may be on to something here.恩达尔可能是对的东西在这里。 Not only will the present crisis lead to further consolidation in the US by crushing local and regional banks which do not have an umbilical chord connecting them directly to the vault at the US Treasury; it could also throw the European financial system into an “every man for himself” frenzy ultimately leading to the breakup of the EU (a prospect that is now widely considered) which would allow the US banking cartel to extend its tentacles to the continent as it has with its equities markets.不仅将目前的危机导致进一步巩固在美国的沉重的地方和区域的银行没有脐和弦连接直接向腾越在美国财政部，它也可以扔欧洲的金融体系转变为“每个人为自己“的狂热最终导致分裂，欧盟（一前景，现在人们普遍认为）这将使美国银行卡特尔其触角延伸到大陆，因为它已与证券市场。
The damage that the investment banks and their non-bank counterparts (Hedge funds, broker dealers, SIVs etc) have done to the broader economy and the lives of hundreds of millions of people around the world is incalculable.的损害，投资银行和非银行对口（对冲基金，经纪交易商， SIVs等） ，这样做更广泛的经济和生活的数以亿计的世界各地的人们是无法估量的。 Still, the remedy is simple and straightforward.不过，补救办法是简单明了。 The banks in question should be forced to establish their solvency according to “mark to market” evaluations (Triple A MBS=$.22 on the dollar) and if they cannot meet minimal capital standards; they should be taken into receivership, their equity shareholders wiped out, their leading executives removed, and they should be transformed into public utilities under the supervision of the Congress of the United States.该银行在问题应该被迫建立自己的偿付能力根据“商标向市场”评价（三A的MBS = 0.22美元美元） ，如果他们不能满足最低限度的资本标准，他们应该考虑到接管，其股东消灭，他们的高层领导中，他们应转变为公用事业的监督下美国国会。 Once the banks are entrusted to our elected officials, we can move on to the Federal Reserve.一旦银行都委托给我们的民选官员，我们可以转向美国联邦储备委员会。 The “price fixing” and manipulation of interest rates by privately-owned banks is a failed experiment.的“价格操纵”和操纵，利息由私人拥有的银行是一个失败的实验。 It’s time to move on.现在是时候继续前进。 Abolish the Fed.废除美联储。
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