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Saturday, November 8th, 2008 星期六， 2008年11月八日

By Stephen Lendman - RINF | “由斯蒂芬Lendman -R INF| “ Reaping the whirlwind收穫旋風 ” for money manager and market strategist Jeremy Grantham in his latest no-nonsense commentary. “錢經理和市場策略傑里洪在他的最新實事求是的評論。 Worlds different from most in the mainstream.世界最不同的主流。 Cheerleaders in upturns.啦啦隊在好轉。 Downplaying risks.淡化風險。 Soft-pedaling reversals and still many in denial about the severity of today’s crisis.軟逆轉和腳踏仍有許多否認的嚴重性今天的危機。 The virtual certainty of a deep and protracted recession.虛擬確定性深刻和持久的經濟衰退。 The likely emergence of a changed world order at its end - for better or worse.可能出現的世界秩序的改變在其結束-是好還是壞。 The result of what Grantham calls “the poisonous wind we all sowed,” and went on to explain it with his customary thoughtful analysis.結果什麼洪所謂的“有毒風我們都播下” ，並接著解釋他的習慣進行透徹的分析。 Calling it like he sees it as one of the earliest to spot the current storm.像呼喚他認為作為一個最早發現當前的風暴。 Even though it arrived sooner and with more severity than he imagined.即使抵達越早和更嚴重程度比他想像的。 In that respect, it fooled some of the best and brightest but no longer the ones most credible.在這方面，愚弄一些最好的和最聰明的，但不再是最可信的。

Grantham enumerated 10 “poisonous” elements:洪列舉的10個“毒”內容：

(1) an extended period of excess in: “money supply, loan growth, leverage, and below normal interest rates;” （ 1 ）延長過剩的： “貨幣供應量，貸款增長，利用，而且比正常利率; ”

(2) at a time of a “remarkably lucky global economic” climate he called “near perfect;” in January 2007, he observed that “Against all odds, Goldilocks tiptoed through the perils of the first (2005) and second (2006) year of the Presidential Cycle (and) 2006 was the rarest of rare birds - a perfect year;” it was “the best year in the entire history of finance for the selling of high credit risks at low premiums” and sowed many seeds for the current debacle; it produced what Grantham called “the first truly global bubble in all asset classes everywhere with only a few modest exceptions;” （ 2 ）在時間的“幸運顯著的全球經濟”氣候他稱之為“近乎完美”於2007年1月，他指出， “儘管困難重重，但金發tiptoed通過危險的第一次（ 2005年）和第二屆（ 2006 ）今年的總統循環（和） 2006年是罕見的珍稀鳥類-一個完美的一年“這是”最好的一年在整個歷史上的資金暢銷的高信貸風險低保費“和許多種子播下的目前的崩潰，它產生什麼洪所謂的“第一個真正的全球泡沫在所有資產類別都只有少數不多的例外情況; ”

(3) as asset bubbles inflated, the Fed, SEC, Treasury, and (both parties in) Congress dismantled regulations instead of tightening them; they sanctified leverage and rejected efforts to curtail risks; worse still, they “encouraged (extreme) excesses by admiring the ingenuity of new financial instruments and repeated their belief that no bubbles existed and that housing at the peak ‘merely reflected a strong US economy;’ ” when conditions headed south, a “strong economy” was still the near-universal mantra; （ 3 ）資產泡沫膨脹，美聯儲，美國證券交易委員會，財政部，以及（雙方）國會解散條例緊縮不是他們，他們神聖槓桿和拒絕努力減少風險;更糟的是，他們“鼓勵（極端）的過度欣賞獨創性的新的金融工具和反复，他們認為沒有泡沫的存在，住房的高峰期，僅僅反映了強勁的美國經濟; “在條件成熟時向南，一個”強大的經濟“仍然是幾乎普遍的咒語;

(4) the combination of a favorable climate and cheerleading by authorities “produced an even more poisonous bubble that in risk-taking itself;” the idea was that in the event of trouble, moral hazard would ride to the rescue, so go as far out on limbs as you like; （ 4 ）相結合的一個良好的氣候和啦啦隊當局“產生了更加有毒的泡沫，在承擔風險的本身; ”的想法是，在發生麻煩，道德風險將乘車前往救援，所以走得那樣遠對四肢您想要的;

(5) the “concept of rational expectations, or market efficiency,” laid deadly groundwork; the idea that we’re “far too sensible” to let major bubbles appear let alone get out of control; the notion is nonsensical on its face; in the “real world of greed and fear, it dangerously encourages the belief that if you take more risk you will automatically receive more reward;” true enough in calm markets, but in turbulent ones it’s disastrous; astonishingly, investors were lulled to think that until mid-2007, market conditions “were actually paying to take risks for the first time in history;” （ 5 ） “概念的理性預期，或市場的效率， ”致命奠定基礎;的想法，我們“過於敏感” ，讓大氣泡出現更不用說失去控制;的概念是荒謬的表面上;在“現實世界的貪婪和恐懼，但危險的鼓勵相信，如果您需要更多的風險你會自動獲得更多的報酬; ”真正的足夠的平靜市場，但在動盪的是災難性的;驚人，投資者迷惑，以認為，直到2007年中期，市場條件“實際上是支付承擔風險的，在歷史上第一次” ;

(6) these bubbles burst like all previous ones; unsurprisingly, they were “absolutely not outlier events;” （ 6 ）這些泡沫破滅像所有以前的;勿庸置疑，他們是“絕對沒有異常活動; ”

(7) built up stresses were so extreme that unwinding them was certain to be painful; in early 2007, Grantham noted that “it is increasingly impressive and surprising how much we have done wrong this time;” （ 7 ）建立起來講是如此極端的解除他們肯定是痛苦的;在2007年初，洪指出， “這是令人印象深刻的，越來越多令人驚奇多少我們所做的這一次錯誤的; ”

(8) “by far, the biggest failing of our system has been its unwillingness to deal with important asset bubbles as they form;” as the dot.com one grew, Grantham explained it in 1998, 1999 and in a 2002 “Feet of Clay” commentary that “aimed at (his) arch villain, Alan Greenspan;” because of a more dangerous housing bubble, “Bernanke joined (his) rogues’ gallery;” （ 8 ） “迄今為止，最大的缺點，我們的系統已不願處理重要的資產泡沫，因為它們的形式; ”作為一個成長dot.com ，洪解釋說， 1998年， 1999年和2002年的“大腳的粘土“的評論說， ”目的是（他）拱惡棍，格林斯潘; “ ，因為一個更加危險的房地產泡沫， ”貝南克加入（他）流氓畫廊“ ;

– added icing on the cake came from Warren Buffett on derivatives; “financial weapons of mass destruction” he called them; so complex few understand them, and many of them are for gambling, not protection or investing; a sure recipe for trouble; the destruction of the very keys to our financial structure; as a result, trust and confidence have been hugely impaired; “a potentially lethal blow to the system and must be addressed at any cost as fast as possible;” and a final observation: -增加除冰的蛋糕來自巴菲特的衍生物; “金融大規模殺傷性武器” ，他呼籲他們如此複雜一些了解，其中許多人是為了賭博，而不是保護或投資;肯定會遇到問題;的破壞非常關鍵的財務結構，因此，信任和信心都受到了巨大損害; “一個潛在的致命打擊系統和必須解決不惜一切代價，盡快” ;最後意見：

(10) foresight, imagination and competence are essential to avoid crises; when they occur, these elements in abundance are needed to deal with it; “the bitterest disappointment” this time is how authorities “rationalized and ignored” asset bubble buildups and risk-taking; especially their cheerleader in-chief, “the formerly esteemed chairman of the Fed.” （ 10 ）遠見，想像力和能力是必不可少的，以避免危機發生時，這些內容豐富，需要處理它; “的痛苦失望”這個時候是如何當局“合理化和忽視”資產泡沫隆和風險考慮;特別是他們的啦啦隊中表示， “以前尊敬的美聯儲主席。 ”

Grantham then asked: “Why did our leaders encourage the deregulation, encourage the leveraging and risk-taking, and completely miss or dismiss the growing signs of trouble and what we described as the ‘near certainties’ of bubbles breaking?” He suggested two “theories.” The first based on “career risk” or what he calls “the Goldman Sachs Effect: Goldman increased its leverage and its profit margins shot into the stratosphere.” Eager and needing to keep up, other less talented banks copied them “with ultimately disastrous consequences.” They had to because “woe betide the CEO who missed the game….The Board would simply kick him out” and replace him with a “gunslinger.”洪然後問： “為什麼我們的領導人鼓勵放鬆管制，鼓勵利用和冒險，完全錯過或駁回越來越多的跡象的麻煩，就是我們所說的'不久的確定性'泡沫破？ ”他提出了兩個“理論。 “首先基於”職業風險“或他所謂的”高盛效應：高盛增加其槓桿作用和其利潤率將球送入平流層。 “渴望並需要跟上，其他銀行少人才複製他們”與最終災難性的後果。 “他們不得不因為”呼吸，共命運發生於首席執行官誰錯過了比賽... 。理事會只想踢他“ ，並取代他的”槍手“ 。

Theory two is harder to prove: “that CEOs are picked for their left-brain skills — focus, hard work, decisiveness, persuasiveness, political skills (and with luck) analytical (ones) and charisma.二是理論難以證明： “這是挑選首席執行官的左側大腦技能-重點，勤奮工作，果斷，說服力，政治技巧（和運氣）分析（國家）和感召力。 The Great American Executives are not picked for their patience.” For wasting time “thinking about history and the long-term future.偉大的美國高管們沒有選擇的耐心。 “浪費時間”思考歷史和長遠的未來。 They are paid to be decisive and to act now.” Today’s CEOs, “to the man, missed everything that was new and different,” and these elements “happened to be vital.”他們付給是決定性的，現在就採取行動。 “今天的CEO們， ”對的人，錯過了一切，新的和不同的， “和這些要素”正好是至關重要的。 “

In mid-2007, Grantham noted three “near certainties:”在2007年年中，洪指出的三個“近確定性： ”

– that US and UK house prices would decline; -即美國和英國的房地產價格將下降;

– profit margins globally would fall; and -全球利潤率將下降;和

– risk premiums everywhere would rise with the result that “markets and the financial and economic systems” would experience “severe consequences.” -風險溢價都將上升，結果， “市場和金融和經濟制度”將經歷“嚴重後果” 。

The US housing market is down but “probably has quite a way to go” to reach bottom.美國房地產市場正在下降，但“可能有相當一段路要走” ，以達到底部。 The UK slump has just begun.英國不景氣才剛剛開始。 It will hit with a thud and cause “another wave of write-downs and stress.” Global profits are falling “rapidly, but have a long way to go.” Most dramatically has been the rise of risk premiums.這將觸及了轟的一聲，並造成“另一波減記和壓力。 ”全球利潤正在下降“迅速，但有一個很長的路要走。 ”大部分已急劇上升的風險溢價。 From record narrow spreads 18 months ago in developed country fixed income markets to far above normal.從狹隘的利差記錄18個月前在發達國家固定收益市場，以遠遠高於正常。 In emerging countries, the worst is likely ahead and in places may be “very severe.” As for equities, global markets “moved in three weeks from quite expensive to moderately cheap for the first time in at least 20 years.”在新興國家中，最有可能在今後的地方可能是“非常嚴重的。 ”至於股市，全球市場“的動議在三個星期內從相當昂貴，以便宜的適度首次在至少20年。 ”

But hold the cheers.但持有的歡呼聲。 We’re not out of the woods.我們沒有走出困境。 Not even close perhaps given the history of bubbles that are punctuated by strong bear market rallies like the one in the run-up to November’s election.甚至沒有給予密切也許是歷史上的泡沫是間斷的強勁熊市集會就是這樣在運行到11月的大選。 Grantham’s research shows that all markets revert to their mean values from their highs and lows.洪的研究表明，所有市場恢復到其均值從他們的高點和低點。 No exceptions, and getting there is very bumpy.沒有例外，而且越來越有非常顛簸。 Nearly always by way overshooting.幾乎總是過度的方式。 Further, the larger the bubble, the greater the overshoot.此外，更大的泡沫，越是過度。

In addition, US markets haven’t been cheap since 1982-1983 and have been “permanently overpriced since 1994.” Hence a “terrible caveat.” Until the greatest ever 2000 equity bubble, the three most important 20th century ones were in 1929, 1965 and Japan at end of 1989.此外，美國市場沒有得到便宜，因為1982-1983年，並已“永久自1994年以來過高。 ”因此， “可怕的誤解。 ”直到2000年有史以來最大的股市泡沫，這三個最重要的20世紀的人於1929年， 1965年，日本在1989年底。 All three overcorrected by more than 50%.所有這三個overcorrected了50 ％以上。 Today, we have “a more global, interlocking, and complicated system, including non-bank players like hedge funds.” We’ve also got destabilizing derivatives in a totally unregulated market.今天，我們有“更具全球性的，相互關聯的，複雜的系統，包括非銀行像對沖基金。 ”我們也有不穩定的衍生物在一個完全不受管制的市場。 Is a 50% overrun likely?是一個50 ％的超支可能？ Grantham thinks governments will do anything to prevent it and with luck they will, but not entirely.格蘭瑟姆認為，政府將做任何事情，以防止它與運氣，他們將，但並不完全。

He estimates S & P 500 fair value at around 975 and believes that it will likely “overrun on the downside by 20-40%, giving a range of 585 to 780 as a probable low.” Its closing October 9, 2007 high was 1565.他估計S ＆ P 500指數公允價值約為975並認為它可能會“超支下跌了20-40 ％ ，提供了一系列的585至780的可能很低。 ”閉幕07年十月9日高點1565 。 The lower figure, if reached, will be 63% below the high.較低的數字，如果達成協議，將在63 ％以下的高點。 In the event of a 50% overshoot, the low will be 487, or a 69% drop.在發生超50 ％ ，低將由487人，或下降69 ％ 。 In sum, “the world faces unavoidable declines in economic activity and profit margins, so this overrun is unlikely to be much less painful than average” and may be worse.總之， “世界面臨著不可避免的下降，經濟活動和利潤率，因此這個溢出是不可能少得多痛苦高於平均水平” ，並可能會更糟。

Another disturbing sign was in the November 3 closely-watched Institute for Supply Management (ISM) report.另一個令人不安的跡象是在11月3日密切關注供應管理協會（ ISM ）報告。 The index fell to 38.9% in October from 43.5% in September.該指數下降至38.9 ％ 10月43.5 ％在9月。 Its lowest level since September 1982.以來的最低水平1982年9月。 Readings below 50 signal contraction.該指數低於50的信號收縮。 This one is big and maybe worsening.這是一個大國和可能進一步惡化。 Both new orders and production were their lowest since the early 1980s.這兩個新訂單和生產的最低點，因為20世紀80年代初。 A clear sign of a deepening recession with the worst still yet to come.一個明顯的跡象，加深經濟衰退的最嚴重的仍尚未到來。

More evidence as well from an October 30 Bloomberg report headlined: “The Shipping News Suggests World Economy is Toast.” Writer Mark Gilbert cites the Baltic Dry Index that tracks the cost of shipping goods and commodities.更多的證據，以及從10月30日彭博報告的標題： “航運新聞建議世界經濟的Toast 。 ”作家馬克吉爾伯特引用波羅的海乾貨指數追踪的運輸費用貨物和商品。 It fell below 1000 for the first time in six years with a thud.它低於1000年的6年來首次與轟的一聲。 It’s now nearly 90% cheaper to ship goods over water than early in the year.現在，近90 ％便宜貨物船舶水比今年年初。 Air freight is also affected and dropped 7.7% in September, according to the International Air Transport Association, or the steepest decline since the trade group began compiling the data in January 2003.空運也受影響，下降7.7 ％ ， 9月，根據國際航空運輸協會，或陡峭的下降，因為貿易集團開始編纂的數據於2003年1月。

Given the current economic crisis and some of the worst economic conditions in years, Societe Generale’s Guy Stear and Claudia Panseri said “Earnings expectations still look optimistic, with analysts projecting 2009 earnings for the S & P 500 rising by 19 per cent.” It’s astonishing that some people buy it or that analysts are allowed to get away with such deception.鑑於目前的經濟危機和一些最惡劣的經濟條件來，興業銀行的蓋伊Stear和克勞迪婭Panseri說： “盈利預期仍然樂觀期待，分析師預測2009年收益為S ＆ P 500指數上升百分之十九。 ”這是驚人的，有些人購買或分析家們允許擺脫這種欺騙。 Slowly and grudgingly, they’ll lower their figures as unfolding evidence forces them.慢慢地和勉強，他們會降低他們的數字出現的證據迫使他們。

More from Martin Weiss on “ 更多來自馬丁魏斯的“ The Great American Housing Nightmare: Next Phase 偉大的美國住房惡夢：下一階段 “ “

His latest analysis as of November 3, and it’s pretty grim.他的最新分析，在11月3日，它非常嚴峻。 He explains that it’s foolish to assume home prices “are so low that they (can’t) go any lower.他解釋說，這是愚蠢的假設房價“是如此之低，他們（不能）去任何降低。 They don’t stop declining because they appear cheap or match a historical low.他們不停止下降，因為他們似乎廉價或符合歷史最低點。 They keep dropping until “no new economic forces drive them down.他們不斷下降，直到“沒有新的經濟力量驅動他們失望。 Despite sharp declines already recorded, a steeper plunge is dead ahead.” Because “most of the (housing market) troubles (so far) have been caused by bad mortgages going sour.儘管已經急劇下降的記錄，一個陡峭暴跌前已經死了。 “ ，因為”大部分（住房市場）的麻煩（迄今）已造成的不良貸款會酸。 Meanwhile, the more common causes of housing slumps — high interest rates, rising unemployment, and recession — are just starting to kick in, and the most powerful causes — depression and deflation — are still on the horizon.”與此同時，較常見的原因，住房低谷-高利率，失業率上升，和經濟衰退-剛開始踢的，和最強大的起因-抑鬱症和通貨緊縮-仍然在地平線上。“

In addition, massive over-indebtedness will pressure greater numbers of homeowners to abandon or sell properties for whatever amounts they’ll bring.此外，大規模的過度負債的壓力將越來越多的業主放棄或出售的任何財產的數額他們會帶來什麼。 Already in 2008, 10% of them are in foreclosure.早在2008年， 10 ％的人在贖回。 Nearly 40% owe more than their homes are worth, and all this kicked in before recession deepens and the “next phase of the Great American Housing Nightmare” begins.將近40 ％以上的欠他們的家園都值得，所有在此之前踢衰退的深化和“下一階段的美國大房屋噩夢”開始了。

Weiss calls it “one of the biggest speculative manias of all time.” With no precedent, so no historical roadmap is available for guidance.韋斯將其稱為“一個最大的投機manias的所有時間。 ”由於沒有先例，所以沒有任何歷史路線可供指導。 “No one can (say) with precision how far US home prices will decline, when they will hit bottom, how many homeowners will lose their homes, or how soon a real recovery will begin.” It may take many years, and the most comparable precedents for today’s crisis had nothing to do with homes. “沒有人可以（說）與高精度多遠美國的住宅價格將下降，當他們將觸底，有多少房主將失去他們的家園，或如何盡快真正的復甦將開始。 ”這可能需要許多年，最類似的先例，今天的危機沒有任何關係的家園。

“They are the Dutch speculative mania of the 1630s, the South Sea Bubble of the 1700s, and the stock market panics of the early 1900s.” The 1929 one as well. “他們是荷蘭的投機熱潮的1630s ，南海泡沫的1700年，股市恐慌的1900年代初期。 ”之一的1929年以及。 Their critical boom-bust elements were quite similar:其關鍵繁榮與蕭條的內容非常相似：

(1) Debt: the fuel of speculation; with enough, prices can be wildly inflated; “in many respects, the borrowing mania makes all previous debt manias pale by comparison;” by mid-2008, the Fed reported $14.8 trillion in outstanding US mortgages or 40% more than the official national debt and triple the total of all mortgages a dozen years earlier. （ 1 ）債務：燃料的投機;有足夠的，價格可瘋狂膨脹; “在許多方面，借款狂潮使得以前的所有債務manias比較蒼白; ”由2008年年中，美聯儲報告一十四萬八億美元在美國懸而未決抵押或40 ％以上的國家的官方債務和三總的所有抵押貸款十幾年前。 Even worse, was the quality of debt.更糟的是，是質量的債務。 Dangerous and substandard because all types of speculative lending proliferated.危險和不合，因為所有類型的投機性貸款激增。 Requiring no proof of an ability to repay.無需證明有能力償還。 No down payment so even low income households could buy unaffordable properties or even more than one.任何首期付款，即使低收入家庭可以購買物業或買不起甚至不止一個。 And even pay interest only or less than the full amount.甚至只支付利息或少於全部金額。

It’s no surprise that a majority made the smallest required payments and accrued unpaid amounts to their loan balances.這是毫不奇怪的是，大多數取得所需的最小付款和應計未付款項的貸款餘額。 The more payments they made, the deeper in debt they fell.更付款，他們提出，更深的債務下降。

It gets worse.它日益惡化。 Unlike past speculative periods, non-lenders this time hold most of the mortgages — “institutions and investors far removed from borrowers.” And the $14.8 trillion in residential and commercial mortgages is compounded by another $20.4 trillion in consumer and corporate debt.與過去的投機時期，非銀行這個時候舉行的大部分抵押貸款-“機構和投資者遠離借款人。 ”而十四萬八點零零億美元在住宅和商業抵押貸款是另一個複雜的二十零萬四億美元在消費者和企業的債務。 As a result, Americans are pressured on multiple fronts — unaffordable mortgages, credit card and other loan balances, combined with mounting layoffs and unemployment.因此，美國人正在施加壓力，在多個領域-買不起抵押貸款，信用卡及其他貸款餘額，加上越來越多的裁員和失業。 A potentially lethal combination.一個潛在致命的組合。

(2) Investor Frenzy: history shows that the wilder it gets on the upside, the greater the selling panic heading down; at the housing bubble’s peak, the average existing home price was nearly five times the yearly incomes of owners - the highest ever ratio in history; at the same time, home affordability plunged to its lowest ever level; in addition, speculation was rampant as the market peaked; “an astounding 40% of houses and condos were bought as second homes or investments.” （ 2 ）投資者瘋狂：歷史表明，它得到瘋狂的上漲，更大的恐慌拋售下跌;在房地產泡沫的高峰期，平均現房價格是近5倍，每年收入的業主-最高比以往任何時候都在歷史上;在同一時間，自置居所的能力下降到有史以來的最低水平，此外，投機猖獗，市場達到頂峰; “了驚人的40 ％的房屋和公寓的購買第二套住房或投資。 ”

Further, the annual appreciation rate for existing homes jumped from 3.6% in January 2001 to 16.6% in November 2005.此外，每年升值率為現房增長3.6 ％ ，從2001年1月至16.6 ％ ， 2005年11月。 For new homes, it surged from 4.8% to 18.1% over the same period.對於新的家園，它由1994年的4.8 ％ ， 18.1 ％ ，較上年同期。 Securitized mortgages (sold globally) added more bubble fuel to the mix — $4.8 trillion worth or 60% more than the total value of all Dow Jones Industrial Average stocks.證券抵押貸款（全球售出）增加了更多的泡沫燃料混合-4 800000000000美元價值或6 0％以上的總價值的所有道瓊斯工業平均指數股票。

(3) Government-Created Monopolies, Corruption, Fraud and Cover-Ups: some of the greatest bubbles in history were created, fueled and extended this way. （ 3 ）政府建立的壟斷，腐敗，欺詐和隱瞞：一些最偉大的泡沫創造了歷史，推動和擴大這種方式。

For example, failing to create a massive railroad monopoly caused the Panic of 1901.例如，未能建立一個大規模的鐵路壟斷造成了恐慌的1901年。 The Panic of 1907 followed the inability to corner the copper market, and the 1929 crash, in large measure, resulted from collusion among brokers, bankers and tycoons.恐慌的1907年之後無法角落裡的銅市場， 1929年崩潰，在很大程度上是由於相互串通經紀人，銀行家和富豪。 Nearly always, the government fostered a deregulatory climate.幾乎總是，政府放寬監管形成了一種氣候。 Gave selected companies and individuals special privileges.給選定的公司和個人的特權。 Encouraged concentrated power, and desperately tried to reconstitute the boom after the bust occurred.鼓勵集中力量，拼命試圖重新繁榮破滅後發生。 It proved fruitless, collapse followed, and it portends what may happen today with a potentially similar or even worse outcome than in the past.事實證明，果，崩潰之後，它預示著可能會發生什麼今天可能類似或更壞的結果比過去。

Take the two government-created housing monopolies for example, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.以兩個政府設立的住房壟斷例如， Fannie Mae和Freddie Mac 。 They got dominant control over the nation’s largest debt market — mortgages, and were encouraged to compete aggressively with private subprime lenders.他們有優勢控制了全國最大的債務市場-抵押貸款，並鼓勵競爭，積極與私營抵押貸款。 It proved disastrous, showed up early, but was ignored.它證明是災難性的，出現早，但被忽略。

In September 2004, Fannie and Freddie’s primary regulator, the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise (OFHE), revealed massive accounting irregularities on both companies’ books. 2004年9月， Fannie和Freddie的主要監管機構，美國聯邦住房企業（ OFHE ） ，顯示大規模的會計違規行為的兩家公司的書籍。 Four years later, they were still unaddressed.四年後，他們仍然沒有得到解決。 As a result, the SEC began investigating their accounting practices.因此，美國證券交易委員會開始調查其會計慣例。 In addition, their official filings and public pronouncements “consistently and wildly overstated their capital, while understating their risk.此外，它們的官方文件，並公開聲明“瘋狂一貫和誇大其資本，而低估其風險。 Fannie and Freddie were actually houses of cards in disguise,” but their executives repeatedly lied about their companies’ health in testimony before Congress. Fannie和Freddie實際上是房屋的卡在偽裝“ ，但是他們的高管一再說謊他們公司的健康在向國會作證時。 That both were undercapitalized and, in fact, insolvent.這都是不足的，事實上，破產。

It’s no surprise given their speculative practices.這是毫不奇怪鑑於其投機性的做法。 Between 2005 and 2008, Fannie alone purchased or guaranteed at least $270 billion in subprime mortgages, more than three times the amount it bought in all previous years combined. 2005年至2008年，聯邦單獨購買或至少保證二七零零零零零零零零零零美元次優抵押貸款中，超過3倍的數額在所有買前幾年的總和。 It went unnoticed, and Wall Street and Washington encouraged even greater risk-taking.去注意它，和華爾街和華盛頓鼓勵更大的冒險。 In September 2008, it ended with a crash.在2008年9月，它最終崩潰。 Both companies were bankrupt, and it no longer could be hidden.這兩家公司的破產，它不再可能是隱藏的。 They needed “an unprecedented $100 billion” each from the government to keep them operating.他們需要“一個前所未有的1000億美元”分別來自政府，使其維持運作。

But that amount way understates the problem.但這一數額的方式低估了問題。 It “assumes an end to the credit crunch, no more debt collapses, no recession, and certainly no depression.” It thus completely ignores reality.據“假設結束了信貸緊縮，沒有更多的債務崩潰，沒有衰退，當然也沒有抑鬱症。 ”因此，它完全無視現實。 What may be needed for what’s “fast becoming history’s largest (ever) cesspool of sinking debts and commitments — $5.2 trillion in mortgages guaranteed or owned by the two companies, their $1.5 trillion in debts, and their $2 trillion in derivatives.”怎麼可能需要什麼“迅速成為歷史上最大的（都）糞坑沉債務和承諾-五萬二點零零零億美元在抵押貸款擔保或所擁有的兩家公司，其1 .5萬億美元的債務，他們的2萬億美元的衍生產品。 “

(4) Collapse: How far home prices will decline can’t be predicted with certainty. （ 4 ）崩潰：多遠住宅價格將下降無法預測的確定性。 However, history once again is a guide:然而，歷史再次是指南：

– in the Dutch Tulip Mania, investors lost nearly everything if they paid cash; even more if they bought on a slim 2.5% margin. -荷蘭鬱金香狂熱，投資者損失了將近一切如果他們支付現金;甚至更多，如果他們買了在一條細長的2 .5％的利潤率。

– in the South Sea Bubble, share prices declined about 90%; -在南海泡沫，股票價格下降9 0％左右;

– in the 1929 crash, they dropped 89%; -1 929年在碰撞，他們下跌8 9％ ;

– In the 2000 - 2002 tech bubble, they sunk 78%; -在2 000至2 002年科技泡沫，他們擊沉的7 8％ ;

– in the 1990 to the present Japanese bear market, they lost 82% in the leading Nikkei average; and -在1 990年至目前日本的熊市，他們失去了8 2％ ，領先日本股市日經指數和

– in today’s financial crisis, losses of up to 99% have occurred in some of America’s most noted companies. -在今天的金融危機，損失達9 9％發生在一些美國最引人注目的公司。

Right or wrong, Weiss believes that today’s US housing bubble “is as extreme as (the above-listed) examples.” He sees it progressing in three phases:正確或錯誤，韋斯認為，今天的美國房市泡沫“是極端的（上述所列）的例子。 ”他認為進展，分三個階段：

– the subprime mortgage bust already experienced; -次級抵押貸款已經經歷蕭條;

– a severe US recession “just beginning;” and -嚴重的美國經濟衰退“剛剛開始” ;和

– “depression and deflation” to come. -“抑鬱症和通貨緊縮”的到來。

Home prices will continue falling precipitously with the most over-valued areas and blightest regions with high unemployment hardest hit.房屋價格將繼續急劇下降的最超額價值的領域和blightest地區的高失業率的打擊最重。 “Never before in history have we witnessed home price declines of this magnitude.” The result of unprecedented levels of debt, speculation, government manipulation, fraud, corruption and consumer abuse. “以前從未在歷史上，我們看到房價下跌的這種規模。 ”結果空前的債務水平，投機，政府操縱，欺詐，腐敗和消費者濫用。 If history teaches anything, “it’s that unprecedented causes (produce) unprecedented consequences.” It’s now playing out in America and globally with the worst of it to come.如果歷史教什麼， “這是前所未有的原因（生產）前所未有的後果。 ”現在玩了在美國和全球範圍內最慘的時候來。

Another Potential Shoe to Drop 另一個潛在的擦鞋下降

According to Nouriel Roubini in his November 4 commentary titled: “據努魯比尼在他11月4日的評論標題為： “ The Rising Risk of a Hard Landing in China: The Two Engines of Global Growth - the US and China - are Now Stalling崛起的風險硬著陸中國：兩個發動機的全球經濟增長-美國和中國-現在失速 “: “ ：

In recent years, “the global economy has been running on two engines, the US on the consumption side and China on the production side, both lifting the global economy.” As the world’s “consumer of first and last resort,” the latest macro data show this engine has effectively shut down.近年來， “全球經濟已經運行的兩個引擎，美國的消費方面和中國的生產方面，既解除全球經濟。 ”作為世界上“消費者的第一和最後的手段， ”在最新的宏觀數據顯示，這個引擎已經有效地關閉。 “More worrisome,” increasing signs show China is also stalling. “更令人擔憂， ”越來越多的跡象表明中國也停滯不前。

Their latest macro data are mixed but all point to “a sharp deceleration of economic growth.” Now at 9% compared to past 12% years.他們最新的宏觀數據有好有壞，但都指向“急劇減速的經濟增長。 ”現在的9 ％相比，過去幾年12 ％ 。 At risk is a potential “hard landing” that for China would mean around 5-6% growth and not the 9-10% it needs to absorb its 24 million new workers annually.風險是一種潛在的“硬著陸” ，對中國將意味著約5-6 ％的增長，而不是9-10 ％ ，它需要吸收了2400萬，每年新工人。 Various “macro indicators suggest that China is indeed headed towards a hard landing.” It’s not good news for America, and in combination, aren’t good news for world economies.各種“宏觀指標顯示，中國確實是走向硬著陸。 ”這不是好消息，北美，並結合，不是好消息，世界經濟。

One year ago, Chinese exports to the US grew at an annualized 20% rate.一年前，中國對美國的出口增長年均20 ％的水平。 The most recent trade data show zero growth, but “the worst is still to come in the next few quarters” as US consumption is falling and is expected to continue declining.最近的貿易數據顯示，零增長，但“最嚴重的仍是在未來幾個季度”作為美國的消費下降，預計將繼續下降。 In addition, nearly all advanced economies face severe recession that will slow China’s growth further.此外，幾乎所有發達經濟體面臨嚴重的衰退，將減緩中國的經濟增長進一步。

Monetary policy may prove ineffective, and analysts disagree about fiscal measures.貨幣政策可能證明無效，分析師意見分歧的財政措施。 As export demand falls, the country is committed to more infrastructure and other spending and has a huge (nearly $2 trillion) foreign currency war chest to do it.由於出口需求下降，該國致力於更多的基礎設施和其他支出，有巨大的（近2萬億美元）的外幣戰爭胸部做到這一點。 But Roubini believes fiscal stimulus will be limited at best.但是，魯比尼認為，財政刺激將是有限的，充其量。 Because of the combined effects of Olympics spending, natural disasters, and social strife in the West, a large budget hole was created.由於綜合影響奧運會的開支，自然災害和社會動亂在西方，一個大洞預算已創建。 Other factors are in play as well such as a turnover decline in local property markets.其他因素在起作用，以及如營業額下降，當地房地產市場。 Lower fees and taxes have resulted that, in turn, have delayed some industrial development plans.降低稅費導致反過來，推遲一些工業發展計劃。

A “hard landing” may also increase the amount of non-performing loans from “the still mostly public state banks…. “硬著陸”也可能增加的不良貸款從“仍是國有銀行的公開... 。 Once net exports go bust and real investment sharply falls we will see a massive surge in non-performing loans that financed low return and marginal investment projects.一旦淨出口進入蕭條和房地產投資急劇下降，我們將看到一個大規模的激增，不良貸款資助低收益和邊際的投資項目。 The ensuing fiscal costs of cleaning up the banking system could be really high.”隨後的財政費用，清理銀行系統可真的很高。 “

An additional factor comes from Michael Pettis — a leading Chinese economy expert.另外一個因素來自於邁克爾佩蒂斯-領先的中國經濟專家。 That a tax revenue surge “in the last 4 years has been more than matched by (a) surge in spending so that if revenue growth diminishes (or reverses) it might not be easy to slow spending growth proportionately.這稅收激增“在過去4年已超過相應的（一）支出激增，因此，如果收入增長的減少（或逆轉）這可能不是一件容易的事緩慢的支出增長比例。 Contingent liabilities from non-performing loans could also reduce resources available for a fiscal stimulus.”或有負債從不良貸款還可以降低現有資源的財政刺激。 “

Nonetheless, fiscal measures are being implemented but so far just modestly, and the “big question is (can China) increase (the amount enough) if a quick order hard landing were to occur.” Roubini believes likely not because “moving a massive amount of economic resources from the tradeable (to the non-tradeable infrastructure) sector will take time…” He sees China decelerating to a 2009 7% growth rate — “just a notch above a 6% hard landing (and) an even worse outcome cannot be ruled out…”然而，財政措施正在實施，但迄今只有謙虛，和“最大的問題是（可中國）增加（數量足夠）如果為了快速硬著陸的發生。 ”魯比尼認為可能不會，因為“移動了大量經濟資源的交易（非流通基礎設施）部門需要一定的時間... “他認為，中國減速到2009年的7 ％的增長速度-”只是一個缺口超過6 ％ ，硬著陸（和）一個更壞的結果不能排除... “

In addition, “a hard landing in China will have severe effects on growth in emerging market economies in Asia, Africa and Latin America as Chinese demand for raw materials and intermediate inputs has been a major source of economic growth for emerging markets and commodity exporters….此外， “硬著陸中國將嚴重影響經濟增長的新興市場經濟體在亞洲，非洲和拉丁美洲的需求作為中國的原材料和中間投入一直是主要來源，經濟增長的新興市場和商品出口商... 。 Thus, global growth — at market prices — will be close to zero in Q3 of 2008, likely negative in Q4 and well into negative territory in 2009.因此，全球經濟增長-市場價格-將接近於零，在第三季度的2 0 08年，可能在第四季度負以及到2 1 69.62在2 0 09年。 So brace yourself for an ugly and protracted global economic contraction” next year.因此，支撐自己的一個醜陋的和持久的全球性經濟收縮“明年。

On November 4, the US Commerce Department added fuel to that argument as factory orders slumped sharply as US and foreign businesses curtailed their capital equipment demand for the second straight month. 11月4日，美國商務部補充燃料的這一論點的工廠訂單大幅下降，美國和外國企業削減其資本設備的需求連續第二個月。 It fell 2.5% in September, much weaker than the 0.2% expected.它下跌2.5 ％ ， 9月，遠低於0.2 ％的預期。 In August, it declined 4.3%, the biggest drop in almost two years, and more erosion is expected in the coming months as the US recession deepens.今年8月，下降了4.3 ％ ，最大降幅近兩年來，更侵蝕，預計在未來幾個月內美國經濟衰退加深。

Exacerbated by plunging US auto sales according to the latest reported figures.下跌加劇了美國汽車銷售根據最新報導的數字。 They dropped 31% in October to around 850,000 vehicles with GM reporting its worst month since 1945 — down 45% along with Chrysler’s 35% and Ford’s 30%.他們下跌31 ％ ，在10月份左右與85.00萬輛通用汽車公司報告其最嚴重的一個月自1945年以來-下降了4 5％ ，與克萊斯勒的3 5％和福特的3 0％ 。 According to one analyst, adjusted for population increases, it was the worst monthly performance “in the post-WW II era.據一位分析師，調整人口的增加，這是最壞的月度表現“後二戰時代。 This is clearly a severe, severe recession,” and auto executives warned that the worst still may lie ahead.這顯然是一個嚴重的，嚴重的經濟衰退“和汽車高層警告說，最壞的可能仍然擺在面前。

Very likely according to the Fed’s Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices.極有可能按照美聯儲的民意調查對銀行貸款的做法。 It shows tighter standards along with weaker loan demand.這顯示更嚴格的標準以及較弱的貸款需求。 It stated: “In the current survey, large net fractions of domestic institutions reported having continued to tighten their lending standards and terms on all major loan categories over the previous three months.” Both to businesses and households.它指出： “在目前的調查顯示，大量的淨部位的國內機構報告說，繼續收緊貸款標準和條件，所有主要的貸款種類比前3個月。 ”都向企業和家庭。 In addition, “Demand for loans from both businesses and households at domestic institutions continued to weaken, on net, over the past three months.”此外， “貸款需求來自企業和家庭在國內機構繼續減弱，淨，在過去3個月。 ”

At the same time, there are huge federal funding demands that will cause an even greater debt crisis.與此同時，有巨大的聯邦資金要求，將會造成更大的債務危機。 The Treasury just announced a need to borrow $550 billion in the current quarter.美國財政部剛剛宣布需要借用五千五萬點零零零萬美元在當前季度。 Near-term needs may add $2-$3 trillion more to that total — to finance the federal deficit, buy $500 billion in toxic assets, roll over $561 billion in maturing Treasuries, and add the unknown factor of what other needs may arise.短期內需求可能會增加2 -3萬億美元以上，以總-資助聯邦赤字，購買50 00億美元的有毒資產，滾動五六一〇 〇 〇 〇 〇 〇 〇 〇 〇美元在成熟的國債，並添加未知的因素還有什麼其他的需求可能會出現。

On November 5, another worrisome one came from the latest ISM non-manufacturing (or service) sector. 11月5日，另一個令人擔憂的是來自最新的ISM非製造業（或服務）部門。 It dropped from a neutral 50.2 September reading to 44.4 in October.它從一個中立的50.2 9月讀在10月的44.4 。 Another clear sign of contraction.另一個明確跡象收縮。 In addition, the non-manufacturing business activity index fell 7.9 points to 44.2, and the new orders one declined 6.8 points to 44.此外，非製造業活動指數下跌7.9點，至44.2 ，新訂單下降6.8 1點，至44 。 The employment index stands at 41.5, and the price index dropped 16.6 points to 53.4.就業指數為41.5 ，價格指數下跌16.6點至53.4 。 Any number below 50 signals contraction.任何數量低於50的信號收縮。

On November 6, two more weak reports came out: 11月6日，兩名更弱的報告出來：

– One from retailers showing their sales plummeted to their lowest level in about 40 years. -一個由零售商以顯示其銷售額大幅下滑來的最低水平約4 0年。 AP retail reporter Anne D’Innocenzio called it “stunning and rare” and said it augurs a bleak outlook for holiday shopping.美聯社記者零售業權威稱為“驚人罕見的” ，並表示，它預示的是一個黯淡的前景購物。 Michael Niemira, the International Council of Shopping Centers’ chief economist, described October sales as “awful.邁克爾涅米拉，國際購物中心委員會首席經濟學家，描述10月份的銷售是“可怕的。 This reflects the severity of the current financial crisis.” The ICSC-Goldman Sachs Index registered a 1% decline to its lowest level since at least 1969 when the index was established.這反映了嚴重的目前的金融危機。 “公務員制度，高盛證券登記指數減少了1 ％以來的最低水平，至少1969年時，該指數成立。

– The Labor Department reported that longer-term jobless benefits hit a 25-year high with the number of people drawing unemployment benefits jumping by 122,000 to 3.84 million in late October. -美國勞工部報告說，長期失業救濟人數創2 5年新高的一些人領取失業救濟跳躍的1 2.200萬至3 84.00萬在1 0月下旬。 It was the highest reading since 1983 at a time of deepening recession.這是最高水平自1983年以來的時間深化經濟衰退。 In addition, another report showed productivity declined to 1.1% in Q3 compared to 3.6% in Q2.此外，另一份報告顯示，生產力下降到1.1 ％ ，第三季度為3.6 ％ ，在第二季度。 Unit labor costs increased at a 3.6% rate compared to .1% in the earlier period.單位勞工成本增加了3.6 ％的增幅相比， 0.1 ％ ，而同期。

The View According to Krassimir Petrov 認為根據克拉斯穆爾彼得羅夫

He’s an economist and assistant professor at the American University in Bulgaria teaching macroeconomics, money and banking, and international finance, and his world view signals trouble of the most serious kind.他是一名經濟學家和助理教授，美國大學在保加利亞教學宏觀經濟，貨幣和銀行，以及國際金融，和他的世界觀信號故障最嚴重的一種。 “Worse than the Great Depression” he explains in a recent article. “不如大蕭條” ，他解釋在最近的一篇文章。 Gives reasons he feels are compelling, and lists the “very same mistakes that led to the” earlier one only this time they’re even worse:讓他覺得原因是令人信服的，並列舉了“非常犯同樣的錯誤，導致”以前只有一個這個時候他們更糟糕：

– asset bubbles in stocks, real estate and more; -資產泡沫的股票，地產及以上;

– securitization and the immense amount of toxic debt it created; -證券和大量的有毒造成的債務;

– excessive leverage compounded by a world of hedge funds; -過度利用複雜的世界的對沖基金;

– corrupt gatekeepers that allowed an Enron and Worldcom scandal and today’s far worse problems; -腐敗的看門人，讓一個安然公司和W orldCom醜聞和今天的嚴重得多的問題;

– lagging regulations or a complete lack of them where they’re most needed; -落後的規章或完全沒有他們在他們最需要的;

– market ideology; laissez unfair fundamentalism; and -市場意識;通行證不公平的原教旨主義;和

– non-transparency to the degree that financial executives even fool themselves. -非透明程度，財務主管甚至愚弄自己。

Combined he sees the current debacle much “worse than the Great Depression” because of six “baked in the cake” fundamental factors:結合他認為目前的崩潰很大“不如大蕭條” ，因為六個“烤的蛋糕”的基本因素：

– overvalued real estate to a far greater degree than in the 1920s when most people paid cash for their homes; -過高的房地產以更大程度遠遠高於1 920年當大多數人用現金購買了他們的家園;

– total US highly-levered credit; again more extreme than in the earlier era; to unprecedented levels; -美國總高度槓桿信貸;再次更極端的比以前的時代;到了前所未有的水平;

– the explosion of derivatives; a thousand trillion dollar “sword of Damocles over the financial system;” an estimated $180 trillion held by banks alone; -爆炸的衍生物; 1 000萬億美元的“達摩克利斯劍的金融體系; ”估計一百八十零萬億美元舉行單獨的銀行;

– the Dow-gold ratio; the “most important ratio between the relative prices of financial” and real assets; leverage creates an imbalance and implies gross overvaluation; it reached its highest ever level in 2000 and needs painfully more downside to unwind; -道金率;的“最重要的比率之間的相對價格的金融”和真正的資產;利用創造了不平衡和嚴重高估意味著它達到歷史最高水平2 000年的痛苦和需要更多的負面放鬆;

– global bubbles not easily comparable to the less globalized 1920s; today, however, US stock market and real estate excesses exceed what occurred back then; and -全球氣泡不會輕易可比的1 920年不到全球化的今天，但是，美國股市和房地產過度超過當年發生;和

– the collapsing Bretton Woods II as distinguished from Bretton Woods I tied to gold and its ability to restrain credit and financial excesses. -折疊布雷頓森林二不同於布雷頓森林我掛鉤黃金和能力，抑制信貸和金融過激行為。

Today’s cumulative imbalances far exceed those of the earlier era and suggest a very grim outlook - if Petrov is right.今天的累積性失衡遠遠超過先前的時代，並提出了非常嚴峻的前景-如果彼得羅夫是正確的。 His advice, and he’s not alone - think gold.他的意見，他並不孤單-想金牌。

A Morning-After Reality Check 上午，檢查後的現實

November 4 election night. 11月4日大選之夜。 It was a happening at Chicago’s Grant Park.這是一個發生在芝加哥的格蘭特公園。 Like New Year’s eve in Times Square.如同除夕在紐約時代廣場。 Expectant many tens of thousands assembled for a huge victory rally.期待許多數以萬計的組裝為一個巨大的勝利集會。 Office buildings were emptied to let them come.辦事處大樓空，讓他們來。 They arrived early.年初，他們抵達。 Awaiting official word that their man won.等待正式一詞，他們的男子韓元。 Eager to greet him.渴望迎接。 The new president-elect.新當選總統。 A change of the guard.變化的警惕。 A new day.一種新的一天。 At around 10PM, the crowd erupted when on giant TV screens CNN called it for Obama.大約晚上10時，人群爆發時的巨型電視屏幕呼籲美國為奧巴馬。 “Yes we can” people chanted. “是的，我們可以”以人高喊。

It was mass euphoria.這是群眾興高采烈。 At a time of deepening financial duress.在時間的深化金融脅迫。 The worst in many decades.最嚴重的幾十年的時間。 Hitting Chicagaons hard like many others. Chicagaons很難觸及許多其他國家一樣。 The nation at war on two fronts as well.在民族戰爭在兩條戰線上的。 A possible new one with Iran, and a new Cold War with Russia in the wings.一種可能的新的與伊朗，和一個新的冷戰時期與俄羅斯的翅膀。 Out of sight and mind as Chicago threw a party and brought the whole city to a halt.視線範圍之外，並考慮到芝加哥投擲黨和使整個城市陷入停頓。 Until after midnight when crowds began dispersing.直到午夜過後開始時，人群驅散。

All night electricity filled the air.所有的電力填補夜晚的空氣。 “Finally we have someone who will change the world,” said a woman. “最後，我們誰也有人將改變世界，說： ”一個女人。 “He’ll put the right people in the right jobs,” said another. “他會把合適的人在正確的就業機會， ”另一個說。 “He wants to make a difference in our country,” one more. “他想有所作為在我國， ”一個更多。 Not a hint of negativity in sight.不是一個消極暗示的跡象。 Not tonight at least.今晚沒有至少。 Tomorrow will be soon enough.明天將是很快。 Mark January 20 as the day it arrives.馬克1月20日的一天到達。 Inauguration day.一天宣誓就職。 In the meantime, party on.與此同時，黨。

In less than three months, the age of George Bush will end and a new Obama one will begin.在不到三個月的時間內，年齡布什政府將結束和一個新的奧巴馬一個開始。 Will it be different or more of the same?會是不同的或更多的相同？ Will the new president be less hawkish?將新總統，升幅為1.31 ？ Less supportive of massive Wall Street bailouts?那麼支持大規模華爾街金援？ Socialism for the rich and the hindmost for the rest?社會主義的豐富和滅的休息？ Less controlled by monied interests?不到控制monied的利益？ More committed to public need?更加致力於公共需要？ Main Street over Wall Street?主街超過華爾街？ More eager to end foreign wars?更熱衷於戰爭結束外國？ More dedicated to a new course?更多專用到一個新的課程？ Reversing his predecessor’s toxic legacy?扭轉其前任的有毒遺產？ Governing responsibly for the first time in decades?負責任的政府幾十年來第一次？ Maybe ever, but at least since the New Deal?也許永遠，但至少自新政？ Is anything close to that possible?任何接近可能嗎？ Think so?這樣想的嗎？ Think again.再想一想。

Comparing Obama to FDR and expecting another New Deal is ludicrous.比較奧巴馬以羅斯福和期待另一新政是荒唐可笑的。 Yet with every new president hope springs eternal.然而，隨著每一個新總統希望泉水永恆的。 Candidates promise change (or at least suggest it) and people buy it.考生許諾改變（或至少表明它）和人買。 A new course.一種新的課程。 Racial harmony.種族和諧。 Peace and prosperity.和平與繁榮。 Populist reform and a radical shift away from the Bush administration’s toxic extremism.民粹主義的改革和徹底偏離了布什政府的有毒極端主義。 A deep breath please for a reality check.深呼吸，請為一個現實檢查。 A wake-up call.敲響了警鐘。 A cold shower.冷淋浴。

Obama is a creation of Wall Street and America’s boardroom rulers.奧巴馬是一個創造了華爾街和美國的董事會的統治者。 Its dominant corporate power.其主導企業權力。 His administration:他的管理：

– will continue an imperial agenda; -將繼續帝國主義的議程;

– won’t end foreign wars; -不會結束外國戰爭;

– won’t repeal repressive police state laws; -將不會廢除鎮壓的警察國家的法律;

– will let corruption go unpunished; -將讓腐敗逍遙法外;

– will continue to serve monied interests; -將繼續擔任m onied利益;

– send hundreds of billions more to bankers; -發送數千億更多的銀行家;

– loot the federal treasury to do it; -搶劫聯邦國庫這樣做;

– let taxpayers fund it; -讓納稅人提供資金;

– let Wall Street run the Treasury with either Goldman Sachs executives or others just like them; -讓華爾街運行或者財政部與高盛公司高管或其他人一樣;

– increase the size of the military; -增加規模的軍隊;

– send more troops to Afghanistan; -派遣更多部隊到阿富汗;

– continue occupying Iraq; -繼續佔領伊拉克;

– begin a new Cold War with Russia; -開始了一個新的冷戰時期與俄羅斯;

– continue attacking Pakistan; -繼續攻擊巴基斯坦;

– possibly Iran as well;

– will keep waging the “war on terrorism;”

– will continue one-sided support for Israel’s repressive occupation of Palestine and proved it by choosing pro-Israeli hardliner and neoliberal Rahm Emanuel as his White House chief of staff; it’s considered the most powerful executive branch position after the president and a Dick Cheney type vice-presidency; Emanuel rammed through NAFTA for Clinton and is a Democratic Leadership Council (DLC) insider;

– will send Israel billions of dollars, the latest weapons and technology, and much more annually;

– will maintain the Cuban embargo;

– hostility toward Hugo Chavez and all other independent leaders, democrats or despots;

– will support neoliberal “free trade;”

– keep undermining labor;

– do nothing to foster racial harmony;

– or defend the rights of immigrant workers;

– or reform the US gulag prison system; the largest in the world by far; affecting mostly poor people of color; his own people;

– won’t end the barbaric death penalty;

– won’t release political prisoners or end the war on Islam;

– will support privatizing public education;

– will ignore the plight of tens of millions with no health insurance and many millions more with too little;

– will back a business as usual agenda because “the business of America is business,” and Obama won’t ever forget it. Or the foreign wars he’ll support in its behalf, and

– will protect the two-party duopoly and do nothing to make an anti-democratic America more democratic.

Think a new progressive age is dawning? Think again. An Obama presidency will go Lincoln one better. It’ll prove that the electorate can be fooled “all of the time” or enough of them long enough before eventually they’ll know they were had — fooled again. One commentator put it up this way: “Forget the honeymoon - I want a divorce,” and Ralph Nader asked: Will Barak Obama be an “Uncle Sam for the people of this country, or Uncle Tom for the giant corporations?”

That said, consider two positive things. Thankfully, Obama isn’t John McCain, and given the dire state of things, he and Congress may have to help people in need. It will be woefully inadequate, packaged to look otherwise, but may be enough to contain public anger. Unless things get so dire, nothing less than massive stimulus will help, and then political exigencies may force a more progressive agenda than party leaders now have in mind. It’s how the New Deal came about. Enlightened politicians and some business leaders were scared enough to give a little to save capitalism. In the months ahead, that choice may again arise.

A View from the UK

It comes from Ambrose Evans-Pritchard in his November 4 commentary headlined: “Revenge of the Left across the world.” He suggests the possibility that America’s election will produce a hostile laissez-faire climate given that “capitalism has run amok” and caused damage so great that Obama “may have to pursue unthinkable policies.” Just as Franklin Roosevelt did once in office.

True or not, some observers believe it or at least are hopeful. Ninety-one year old Eric Hobsbawm for one. The famed British Marxist historian and author in a BBC interview. He calls today’s events “the dramatic equivalent of the collapse of the Soviet Union: we now know that an era has ended. It is certainly the greatest crisis of capitalism since the 1930s. As Marx and Schumpeter foresaw, globalization not only destroys heritage, but is incredibly unstable. It operates through a series of crises.”

This one will result in “a much greater role for the state, one way or another. We’ve already got the state as lender of last resort. We might well return to the idea of the state as employer of last resort” the way it was under FDR.

Evans-Pritchard is sympathetic and disagrees with those who think business can go on as usual given that governments have stepped in with massive rescue packages. He quotes Germany’s foreign minister, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, saying: “The rule of the radical market ideology that began with Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan has ended with a loud bang. We need a comprehensive new start, so we can reestablish our society on fresh foundations. People create value, not locusts.” Thatcher’s TINA (there is no alternative) has come full circle. It was fraudulent on its face and is now turned on it head.

So says Nicolas Sarkozy in his “ Laissez-faire, c’est fini ” comment that needs no translation. “We will intervene massively whenever a strategic enterprise needs our money,” he said. It’s pouring out of Washington, the UK, and most Western European capitals in a frantic effort to staunch the bleeding that keeps gushing no matter what they do. Because of what Evans-Pritchard calls the “awful truth.” Gross excesses producing awesome credit bubbles now imploding and landing with a thud. Their “shock will move by degrees from revulsion to political rage.” It produced Hitler in 1930s Germany. Hobsbawm hopes America will be wiser and choose socialism over “the Hegelian broth nearing the boil in Europe.”

Given current conditions near certain to worsen and a new US administration in power, it’s anyone’s guess how a crisis this grave will be resolved or how things will look when it ends. One thing, however, is sure. The age of George Bush is over, and not a moment too soon. But undoing his damage may be too great a task for any head of state — even for all of them combined. The wages of sin are now due.

Have Your Say: Lendman: The Wages of Sin
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