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Saturday, November 8th, 2008 星期六， 2008年11月八日

By Stephen Lendman - RINF | “由斯蒂芬Lendman -R INF| “ Reaping the whirlwind收获旋风 ” for money manager and market strategist Jeremy Grantham in his latest no-nonsense commentary. “钱经理和市场策略杰里洪在他的最新实事求是的评论。 Worlds different from most in the mainstream.世界最不同的主流。 Cheerleaders in upturns.啦啦队在好转。 Downplaying risks.淡化风险。 Soft-pedaling reversals and still many in denial about the severity of today’s crisis.软逆转和脚踏仍有许多否认的严重性今天的危机。 The virtual certainty of a deep and protracted recession.虚拟确定性深刻和持久的经济衰退。 The likely emergence of a changed world order at its end - for better or worse.可能出现的世界秩序的改变在其结束-是好还是坏。 The result of what Grantham calls “the poisonous wind we all sowed,” and went on to explain it with his customary thoughtful analysis.结果什么洪所谓的“有毒风我们都播下” ，并接着解释他的习惯进行透彻的分析。 Calling it like he sees it as one of the earliest to spot the current storm.像呼唤他认为作为一个最早发现当前的风暴。 Even though it arrived sooner and with more severity than he imagined.即使抵达越早和更严重程度比他想象的。 In that respect, it fooled some of the best and brightest but no longer the ones most credible.在这方面，愚弄一些最好的和最聪明的，但不再是最可信的。

Grantham enumerated 10 “poisonous” elements:洪列举的10个“毒”内容：

(1) an extended period of excess in: “money supply, loan growth, leverage, and below normal interest rates;” （ 1 ）延长过剩的： “货币供应量，贷款增长，利用，而且比正常利率; ”

(2) at a time of a “remarkably lucky global economic” climate he called “near perfect;” in January 2007, he observed that “Against all odds, Goldilocks tiptoed through the perils of the first (2005) and second (2006) year of the Presidential Cycle (and) 2006 was the rarest of rare birds - a perfect year;” it was “the best year in the entire history of finance for the selling of high credit risks at low premiums” and sowed many seeds for the current debacle; it produced what Grantham called “the first truly global bubble in all asset classes everywhere with only a few modest exceptions;” （ 2 ）在时间的“幸运显着的全球经济”气候他称之为“近乎完美”于2007年1月，他指出， “尽管困难重重，但金发tiptoed通过危险的第一次（ 2005年）和第二届（ 2006 ）今年的总统循环（和） 2006年是罕见的珍稀鸟类-一个完美的一年“这是”最好的一年在整个历史上的资金畅销的高信贷风险低保费“和许多种子播下的目前的崩溃，它产生什么洪所谓的“第一个真正的全球泡沫在所有资产类别都只有少数不多的例外情况; ”

(3) as asset bubbles inflated, the Fed, SEC, Treasury, and (both parties in) Congress dismantled regulations instead of tightening them; they sanctified leverage and rejected efforts to curtail risks; worse still, they “encouraged (extreme) excesses by admiring the ingenuity of new financial instruments and repeated their belief that no bubbles existed and that housing at the peak ‘merely reflected a strong US economy;’ ” when conditions headed south, a “strong economy” was still the near-universal mantra; （ 3 ）资产泡沫膨胀，美联储，美国证券交易委员会，财政部，以及（双方）国会解散条例紧缩不是他们，他们神圣杠杆和拒绝努力减少风险;更糟的是，他们“鼓励（极端）的过度欣赏独创性的新的金融工具和反复，他们认为没有泡沫的存在，住房的高峰期，仅仅反映了强劲的美国经济; “在条件成熟时向南，一个”强大的经济“仍然是几乎普遍的咒语;

(4) the combination of a favorable climate and cheerleading by authorities “produced an even more poisonous bubble that in risk-taking itself;” the idea was that in the event of trouble, moral hazard would ride to the rescue, so go as far out on limbs as you like; （ 4 ）相结合的一个良好的气候和啦啦队当局“产生了更加有毒的泡沫，在承担风险的本身; ”的想法是，在发生麻烦，道德风险将乘车前往救援，所以走得那样远对四肢您想要的;

(5) the “concept of rational expectations, or market efficiency,” laid deadly groundwork; the idea that we’re “far too sensible” to let major bubbles appear let alone get out of control; the notion is nonsensical on its face; in the “real world of greed and fear, it dangerously encourages the belief that if you take more risk you will automatically receive more reward;” true enough in calm markets, but in turbulent ones it’s disastrous; astonishingly, investors were lulled to think that until mid-2007, market conditions “were actually paying to take risks for the first time in history;” （ 5 ） “概念的理性预期，或市场的效率， ”致命奠定基础;的想法，我们“过于敏感” ，让大气泡出现更不用说失去控制;的概念是荒谬的表面上;在“现实世界的贪婪和恐惧，但危险的鼓励相信，如果您需要更多的风险你会自动获得更多的报酬; ”真正的足够的平静市场，但在动荡的是灾难性的;惊人，投资者迷惑，以认为，直到2007年中期，市场条件“实际上是支付承担风险的，在历史上第一次” ;

(6) these bubbles burst like all previous ones; unsurprisingly, they were “absolutely not outlier events;” （ 6 ）这些泡沫破灭像所有以前的;勿庸置疑，他们是“绝对没有异常活动; ”

(7) built up stresses were so extreme that unwinding them was certain to be painful; in early 2007, Grantham noted that “it is increasingly impressive and surprising how much we have done wrong this time;” （ 7 ）建立起来讲是如此极端的解除他们肯定是痛苦的;在2007年初，洪指出， “这是令人印象深刻的，越来越多令人惊奇多少我们所做的这一次错误的; ”

(8) “by far, the biggest failing of our system has been its unwillingness to deal with important asset bubbles as they form;” as the dot.com one grew, Grantham explained it in 1998, 1999 and in a 2002 “Feet of Clay” commentary that “aimed at (his) arch villain, Alan Greenspan;” because of a more dangerous housing bubble, “Bernanke joined (his) rogues’ gallery;” （ 8 ） “迄今为止，最大的缺点，我们的系统已不愿处理重要的资产泡沫，因为它们的形式; ”作为一个成长dot.com ，洪解释说， 1998年， 1999年和2002年的“大脚的粘土“的评论说， ”目的是（他）拱恶棍，格林斯潘; “ ，因为一个更加危险的房地产泡沫， ”贝南克加入（他）流氓画廊“ ;

– added icing on the cake came from Warren Buffett on derivatives; “financial weapons of mass destruction” he called them; so complex few understand them, and many of them are for gambling, not protection or investing; a sure recipe for trouble; the destruction of the very keys to our financial structure; as a result, trust and confidence have been hugely impaired; “a potentially lethal blow to the system and must be addressed at any cost as fast as possible;” and a final observation: -增加除冰的蛋糕来自巴菲特的衍生物; “金融大规模杀伤性武器” ，他呼吁他们如此复杂一些了解，其中许多人是为了赌博，而不是保护或投资;肯定会遇到问题;的破坏非常关键的财务结构，因此，信任和信心都受到了巨大损害; “一个潜在的致命打击系统和必须解决不惜一切代价，尽快” ;最后意见：

(10) foresight, imagination and competence are essential to avoid crises; when they occur, these elements in abundance are needed to deal with it; “the bitterest disappointment” this time is how authorities “rationalized and ignored” asset bubble buildups and risk-taking; especially their cheerleader in-chief, “the formerly esteemed chairman of the Fed.” （ 10 ）远见，想象力和能力是必不可少的，以避免危机发生时，这些内容丰富，需要处理它; “的痛苦失望”这个时候是如何当局“合理化和忽视”资产泡沫隆和风险考虑;特别是他们的啦啦队中表示， “以前尊敬的美联储主席。 ”

Grantham then asked: “Why did our leaders encourage the deregulation, encourage the leveraging and risk-taking, and completely miss or dismiss the growing signs of trouble and what we described as the ‘near certainties’ of bubbles breaking?” He suggested two “theories.” The first based on “career risk” or what he calls “the Goldman Sachs Effect: Goldman increased its leverage and its profit margins shot into the stratosphere.” Eager and needing to keep up, other less talented banks copied them “with ultimately disastrous consequences.” They had to because “woe betide the CEO who missed the game….The Board would simply kick him out” and replace him with a “gunslinger.”洪然后问： “为什么我们的领导人鼓励放松管制，鼓励利用和冒险，完全错过或驳回越来越多的迹象的麻烦，就是我们所说的'不久的确定性'泡沫破？ ”他提出了两个“理论。 “首先基于”职业风险“或他所谓的”高盛效应：高盛增加其杠杆作用和其利润率将球送入平流层。 “渴望并需要跟上，其他银行少人才复制他们”与最终灾难性的后果。 “他们不得不因为”呼吸，共命运发生于首席执行官谁错过了比赛... 。理事会只想踢他“ ，并取代他的”枪手“ 。

Theory two is harder to prove: “that CEOs are picked for their left-brain skills — focus, hard work, decisiveness, persuasiveness, political skills (and with luck) analytical (ones) and charisma.二是理论难以证明： “这是挑选首席执行官的左侧大脑技能-重点，勤奋工作，果断，说服力，政治技巧（和运气）分析（国家）和感召力。 The Great American Executives are not picked for their patience.” For wasting time “thinking about history and the long-term future.伟大的美国高管们没有选择的耐心。 “浪费时间”思考历史和长远的未来。 They are paid to be decisive and to act now.” Today’s CEOs, “to the man, missed everything that was new and different,” and these elements “happened to be vital.”他们付给是决定性的，现在就采取行动。 “今天的CEO们， ”对的人，错过了一切，新的和不同的， “和这些要素”正好是至关重要的。 “

In mid-2007, Grantham noted three “near certainties:”在2007年年中，洪指出的三个“近确定性： ”

– that US and UK house prices would decline; -即美国和英国的房地产价格将下降;

– profit margins globally would fall; and -全球利润率将下降;和

– risk premiums everywhere would rise with the result that “markets and the financial and economic systems” would experience “severe consequences.” -风险溢价都将上升，结果， “市场和金融和经济制度”将经历“严重后果” 。

The US housing market is down but “probably has quite a way to go” to reach bottom.美国房地产市场正在下降，但“可能有相当一段路要走” ，以达到底部。 The UK slump has just begun.英国不景气才刚刚开始。 It will hit with a thud and cause “another wave of write-downs and stress.” Global profits are falling “rapidly, but have a long way to go.” Most dramatically has been the rise of risk premiums.这将触及了轰的一声，并造成“另一波减记和压力。 ”全球利润正在下降“迅速，但有一个很长的路要走。 ”大部分已急剧上升的风险溢价。 From record narrow spreads 18 months ago in developed country fixed income markets to far above normal.从狭隘的利差记录18个月前在发达国家固定收益市场，以远远高于正常。 In emerging countries, the worst is likely ahead and in places may be “very severe.” As for equities, global markets “moved in three weeks from quite expensive to moderately cheap for the first time in at least 20 years.”在新兴国家中，最有可能在今后的地方可能是“非常严重的。 ”至于股市，全球市场“的动议在三个星期内从相当昂贵，以便宜的适度首次在至少20年。 ”

But hold the cheers.但持有的欢呼声。 We’re not out of the woods.我们没有走出困境。 Not even close perhaps given the history of bubbles that are punctuated by strong bear market rallies like the one in the run-up to November’s election.甚至没有给予密切也许是历史上的泡沫是间断的强劲熊市集会就是这样在运行到11月的大选。 Grantham’s research shows that all markets revert to their mean values from their highs and lows.洪的研究表明，所有市场恢复到其均值从他们的高点和低点。 No exceptions, and getting there is very bumpy.没有例外，而且越来越有非常颠簸。 Nearly always by way overshooting.几乎总是过度的方式。 Further, the larger the bubble, the greater the overshoot.此外，更大的泡沫，越是过度。

In addition, US markets haven’t been cheap since 1982-1983 and have been “permanently overpriced since 1994.” Hence a “terrible caveat.” Until the greatest ever 2000 equity bubble, the three most important 20th century ones were in 1929, 1965 and Japan at end of 1989.此外，美国市场没有得到便宜，因为1982-1983年，并已“永久自1994年以来过高。 ”因此， “可怕的误解。 ”直到2000年有史以来最大的股市泡沫，这三个最重要的20世纪的人于1929年， 1965年，日本在1989年底。 All three overcorrected by more than 50%.所有这三个overcorrected了50 ％以上。 Today, we have “a more global, interlocking, and complicated system, including non-bank players like hedge funds.” We’ve also got destabilizing derivatives in a totally unregulated market.今天，我们有“更具全球性的，相互关联的，复杂的系统，包括非银行像对冲基金。 ”我们也有不稳定的衍生物在一个完全不受管制的市场。 Is a 50% overrun likely?是一个50 ％的超支可能？ Grantham thinks governments will do anything to prevent it and with luck they will, but not entirely.格兰瑟姆认为，政府将做任何事情，以防止它与运气，他们将，但并不完全。

He estimates S & P 500 fair value at around 975 and believes that it will likely “overrun on the downside by 20-40%, giving a range of 585 to 780 as a probable low.” Its closing October 9, 2007 high was 1565.他估计S ＆ P 500指数公允价值约为975并认为它可能会“超支下跌了20-40 ％ ，提供了一系列的585至780的可能很低。 ”闭幕07年十月9日高点1565 。 The lower figure, if reached, will be 63% below the high.较低的数字，如果达成协议，将在63 ％以下的高点。 In the event of a 50% overshoot, the low will be 487, or a 69% drop.在发生超50 ％ ，低将由487人，或下降69 ％ 。 In sum, “the world faces unavoidable declines in economic activity and profit margins, so this overrun is unlikely to be much less painful than average” and may be worse.总之， “世界面临着不可避免的下降，经济活动和利润率，因此这个溢出是不可能少得多痛苦高于平均水平” ，并可能会更糟。

Another disturbing sign was in the November 3 closely-watched Institute for Supply Management (ISM) report.另一个令人不安的迹象是在11月3日密切关注供应管理协会（ ISM ）报告。 The index fell to 38.9% in October from 43.5% in September.该指数下降至38.9 ％ 10月43.5 ％在9月。 Its lowest level since September 1982.以来的最低水平1982年9月。 Readings below 50 signal contraction.该指数低于50的信号收缩。 This one is big and maybe worsening.这是一个大国和可能进一步恶化。 Both new orders and production were their lowest since the early 1980s.这两个新订单和生产的最低点，因为20世纪80年代初。 A clear sign of a deepening recession with the worst still yet to come.一个明显的迹象，加深经济衰退的最严重的仍尚未到来。

More evidence as well from an October 30 Bloomberg report headlined: “The Shipping News Suggests World Economy is Toast.” Writer Mark Gilbert cites the Baltic Dry Index that tracks the cost of shipping goods and commodities.更多的证据，以及从10月30日彭博报告的标题： “航运新闻建议世界经济的Toast 。 ”作家马克吉尔伯特引用波罗的海干货指数追踪的运输费用货物和商品。 It fell below 1000 for the first time in six years with a thud.它低于1000年的6年来首次与轰的一声。 It’s now nearly 90% cheaper to ship goods over water than early in the year.现在，近90 ％便宜货物船舶水比今年年初。 Air freight is also affected and dropped 7.7% in September, according to the International Air Transport Association, or the steepest decline since the trade group began compiling the data in January 2003.空运也受影响，下降7.7 ％ ， 9月，根据国际航空运输协会，或陡峭的下降，因为贸易集团开始编纂的数据于2003年1月。

Given the current economic crisis and some of the worst economic conditions in years, Societe Generale’s Guy Stear and Claudia Panseri said “Earnings expectations still look optimistic, with analysts projecting 2009 earnings for the S & P 500 rising by 19 per cent.” It’s astonishing that some people buy it or that analysts are allowed to get away with such deception.鉴于目前的经济危机和一些最恶劣的经济条件来，兴业银行的盖伊Stear和克劳迪娅Panseri说： “盈利预期仍然乐观期待，分析师预测2009年收益为S ＆ P 500指数上升百分之十九。 ”这是惊人的，有些人购买或分析家们允许摆脱这种欺骗。 Slowly and grudgingly, they’ll lower their figures as unfolding evidence forces them.慢慢地和勉强，他们会降低他们的数字出现的证据迫使他们。

More from Martin Weiss on “ 更多来自马丁魏斯的“ The Great American Housing Nightmare: Next Phase 伟大的美国住房恶梦：下一阶段 “ “

His latest analysis as of November 3, and it’s pretty grim.他的最新分析，在11月3日，它非常严峻。 He explains that it’s foolish to assume home prices “are so low that they (can’t) go any lower.他解释说，这是愚蠢的假设房价“是如此之低，他们（不能）去任何降低。 They don’t stop declining because they appear cheap or match a historical low.他们不停止下降，因为他们似乎廉价或符合历史最低点。 They keep dropping until “no new economic forces drive them down.他们不断下降，直到“没有新的经济力量驱动他们失望。 Despite sharp declines already recorded, a steeper plunge is dead ahead.” Because “most of the (housing market) troubles (so far) have been caused by bad mortgages going sour.尽管已经急剧下降的记录，一个陡峭暴跌前已经死了。 “ ，因为”大部分（住房市场）的麻烦（迄今）已造成的不良贷款会酸。 Meanwhile, the more common causes of housing slumps — high interest rates, rising unemployment, and recession — are just starting to kick in, and the most powerful causes — depression and deflation — are still on the horizon.”与此同时，较常见的原因，住房低谷-高利率，失业率上升，和经济衰退-刚开始踢的，和最强大的起因-抑郁症和通货紧缩-仍然在地平线上。“

In addition, massive over-indebtedness will pressure greater numbers of homeowners to abandon or sell properties for whatever amounts they’ll bring.此外，大规模的过度负债的压力将越来越多的业主放弃或出售的任何财产的数额他们会带来什么。 Already in 2008, 10% of them are in foreclosure.早在2008年， 10 ％的人在赎回。 Nearly 40% owe more than their homes are worth, and all this kicked in before recession deepens and the “next phase of the Great American Housing Nightmare” begins.将近40 ％以上的欠他们的家园都值得，所有在此之前踢衰退的深化和“下一阶段的美国大房屋噩梦”开始了。

Weiss calls it “one of the biggest speculative manias of all time.” With no precedent, so no historical roadmap is available for guidance.韦斯将其称为“一个最大的投机manias的所有时间。 ”由于没有先例，所以没有任何历史路线可供指导。 “No one can (say) with precision how far US home prices will decline, when they will hit bottom, how many homeowners will lose their homes, or how soon a real recovery will begin.” It may take many years, and the most comparable precedents for today’s crisis had nothing to do with homes. “没有人可以（说）与高精度多远美国的住宅价格将下降，当他们将触底，有多少房主将失去他们的家园，或如何尽快真正的复苏将开始。 ”这可能需要许多年，最类似的先例，今天的危机没有任何关系的家园。

“They are the Dutch speculative mania of the 1630s, the South Sea Bubble of the 1700s, and the stock market panics of the early 1900s.” The 1929 one as well. “他们是荷兰的投机热潮的1630s ，南海泡沫的1700年，股市恐慌的1900年代初期。 ”之一的1929年以及。 Their critical boom-bust elements were quite similar:其关键繁荣与萧条的内容非常相似：

(1) Debt: the fuel of speculation; with enough, prices can be wildly inflated; “in many respects, the borrowing mania makes all previous debt manias pale by comparison;” by mid-2008, the Fed reported $14.8 trillion in outstanding US mortgages or 40% more than the official national debt and triple the total of all mortgages a dozen years earlier. （ 1 ）债务：燃料的投机;有足够的，价格可疯狂膨胀; “在许多方面，借款狂潮使得以前的所有债务manias比较苍白; ”由2008年年中，美联储报告十四万八千点零零零亿美元在美国悬而未决抵押或40 ％以上的国家的官方债务和三总的所有抵押贷款十几年前。 Even worse, was the quality of debt.更糟的是，是质量的债务。 Dangerous and substandard because all types of speculative lending proliferated.危险和不合，因为所有类型的投机性贷款激增。 Requiring no proof of an ability to repay.无需证明有能力偿还。 No down payment so even low income households could buy unaffordable properties or even more than one.任何首期付款，即使低收入家庭可以购买物业或买不起甚至不止一个。 And even pay interest only or less than the full amount.甚至只支付利息或少于全部金额。

It’s no surprise that a majority made the smallest required payments and accrued unpaid amounts to their loan balances.这是毫不奇怪的是，大多数取得所需的最小付款和应计未付款项的贷款余额。 The more payments they made, the deeper in debt they fell.更付款，他们提出，更深的债务下降。

It gets worse.它日益恶化。 Unlike past speculative periods, non-lenders this time hold most of the mortgages — “institutions and investors far removed from borrowers.” And the $14.8 trillion in residential and commercial mortgages is compounded by another $20.4 trillion in consumer and corporate debt.与过去的投机时期，非银行这个时候举行的大部分抵押贷款-“机构和投资者远离借款人。 ”而十四万八千亿美元在住宅和商业抵押贷款是另一个复杂的二十零万四亿美元在消费者和企业的债务。 As a result, Americans are pressured on multiple fronts — unaffordable mortgages, credit card and other loan balances, combined with mounting layoffs and unemployment.因此，美国人正在施加压力，在多个领域-买不起抵押贷款，信用卡及其他贷款余额，加上越来越多的裁员和失业。 A potentially lethal combination.一个潜在致命的组合。

(2) Investor Frenzy: history shows that the wilder it gets on the upside, the greater the selling panic heading down; at the housing bubble’s peak, the average existing home price was nearly five times the yearly incomes of owners - the highest ever ratio in history; at the same time, home affordability plunged to its lowest ever level; in addition, speculation was rampant as the market peaked; “an astounding 40% of houses and condos were bought as second homes or investments.” （ 2 ）投资者疯狂：历史表明，它得到疯狂的上涨，更大的恐慌抛售下跌;在房地产泡沫的高峰期，平均现房价格是近5倍，每年收入的业主-最高比以往任何时候都在历史上;在同一时间，自置居所的能力下降到有史以来的最低水平，此外，投机猖獗，市场达到顶峰; “了惊人的40 ％的房屋和公寓的购买第二套住房或投资。 ”

Further, the annual appreciation rate for existing homes jumped from 3.6% in January 2001 to 16.6% in November 2005.此外，每年升值率为现房增长3.6 ％ ，从2001年1月至16.6 ％ ， 2005年11月。 For new homes, it surged from 4.8% to 18.1% over the same period.对于新的家园，它由1994年的4.8 ％ ， 18.1 ％ ，较上年同期。 Securitized mortgages (sold globally) added more bubble fuel to the mix — $4.8 trillion worth or 60% more than the total value of all Dow Jones Industrial Average stocks.证券抵押贷款（全球售出）增加了更多的泡沫燃料混合-4 800000000000美元价值或6 0％以上的总价值的所有道琼斯工业平均指数股票。

(3) Government-Created Monopolies, Corruption, Fraud and Cover-Ups: some of the greatest bubbles in history were created, fueled and extended this way. （ 3 ）政府建立的垄断，腐败，欺诈和隐瞒：一些最伟大的泡沫创造了历史，推动和扩大这种方式。

For example, failing to create a massive railroad monopoly caused the Panic of 1901.例如，未能建立一个大规模的铁路垄断造成了恐慌的1901年。 The Panic of 1907 followed the inability to corner the copper market, and the 1929 crash, in large measure, resulted from collusion among brokers, bankers and tycoons.恐慌的1907年之后无法角落里的铜市场， 1929年崩溃，在很大程度上是由于相互串通经纪人，银行家和富豪。 Nearly always, the government fostered a deregulatory climate.几乎总是，政府放宽监管形成了一种气候。 Gave selected companies and individuals special privileges.给选定的公司和个人的特权。 Encouraged concentrated power, and desperately tried to reconstitute the boom after the bust occurred.鼓励集中力量，拼命试图重新繁荣破灭后发生。 It proved fruitless, collapse followed, and it portends what may happen today with a potentially similar or even worse outcome than in the past.事实证明，果，崩溃之后，它预示着可能会发生什么今天可能类似或更坏的结果比过去。

Take the two government-created housing monopolies for example, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.以两个政府设立的住房垄断例如， Fannie Mae和Freddie Mac 。 They got dominant control over the nation’s largest debt market — mortgages, and were encouraged to compete aggressively with private subprime lenders.他们有优势控制了全国最大的债务市场-抵押贷款，并鼓励竞争，积极与私营抵押贷款。 It proved disastrous, showed up early, but was ignored.它证明是灾难性的，出现早，但被忽略。

In September 2004, Fannie and Freddie’s primary regulator, the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise (OFHE), revealed massive accounting irregularities on both companies’ books. 2004年9月， Fannie和Freddie的主要监管机构，美国联邦住房企业（ OFHE ） ，显示大规模的会计违规行为的两家公司的书籍。 Four years later, they were still unaddressed.四年后，他们仍然没有得到解决。 As a result, the SEC began investigating their accounting practices.因此，美国证券交易委员会开始调查其会计惯例。 In addition, their official filings and public pronouncements “consistently and wildly overstated their capital, while understating their risk.此外，它们的官方文件，并公开声明“疯狂一贯和夸大其资本，而低估其风险。 Fannie and Freddie were actually houses of cards in disguise,” but their executives repeatedly lied about their companies’ health in testimony before Congress. Fannie和Freddie实际上是房屋的卡在伪装“ ，但是他们的高管一再说谎他们公司的健康在向国会作证时。 That both were undercapitalized and, in fact, insolvent.这都是不足的，事实上，破产。

It’s no surprise given their speculative practices.这是毫不奇怪鉴于其投机性的做法。 Between 2005 and 2008, Fannie alone purchased or guaranteed at least $270 billion in subprime mortgages, more than three times the amount it bought in all previous years combined. 2005年至2008年，联邦单独购买或至少保证二千七亿美元次优抵押贷款中，超过3倍的数额在所有买前几年的总和。 It went unnoticed, and Wall Street and Washington encouraged even greater risk-taking.去注意它，和华尔街和华盛顿鼓励更大的冒险。 In September 2008, it ended with a crash.在2008年9月，它最终崩溃。 Both companies were bankrupt, and it no longer could be hidden.这两家公司的破产，它不再可能是隐藏的。 They needed “an unprecedented $100 billion” each from the government to keep them operating.他们需要“一个前所未有的1000亿美元”分别来自政府，使其维持运作。

But that amount way understates the problem.但这一数额的方式低估了问题。 It “assumes an end to the credit crunch, no more debt collapses, no recession, and certainly no depression.” It thus completely ignores reality.据“假设结束了信贷紧缩，没有更多的债务崩溃，没有衰退，当然也没有抑郁症。 ”因此，它完全无视现实。 What may be needed for what’s “fast becoming history’s largest (ever) cesspool of sinking debts and commitments — $5.2 trillion in mortgages guaranteed or owned by the two companies, their $1.5 trillion in debts, and their $2 trillion in derivatives.”怎么可能需要什么“迅速成为历史上最大的（都）粪坑沉债务和承诺-五万二点零零零亿美元在抵押贷款担保或所拥有的两家公司，其1 .5万亿美元的债务，他们的2万亿美元的衍生产品。 “

(4) Collapse: How far home prices will decline can’t be predicted with certainty. （ 4 ）崩溃：多远住宅价格将下降无法预测的确定性。 However, history once again is a guide:然而，历史再次是指南：

– in the Dutch Tulip Mania, investors lost nearly everything if they paid cash; even more if they bought on a slim 2.5% margin. -荷兰郁金香狂热，投资者损失了将近一切如果他们支付现金;甚至更多，如果他们买了在一条细长的2 .5％的利润率。

– in the South Sea Bubble, share prices declined about 90%; -在南海泡沫，股票价格下降9 0％左右;

– in the 1929 crash, they dropped 89%; -1 929年在碰撞，他们下跌8 9％ ;

– In the 2000 - 2002 tech bubble, they sunk 78%; -在2 000至2 002年科技泡沫，他们击沉的7 8％ ;

– in the 1990 to the present Japanese bear market, they lost 82% in the leading Nikkei average; and -在1 990年至目前日本的熊市，他们失去了8 2％ ，领先日本股市日经指数和

– in today’s financial crisis, losses of up to 99% have occurred in some of America’s most noted companies. -在今天的金融危机，损失达9 9％发生在一些美国最引人注目的公司。

Right or wrong, Weiss believes that today’s US housing bubble “is as extreme as (the above-listed) examples.” He sees it progressing in three phases:正确或错误，韦斯认为，今天的美国房市泡沫“是极端的（上述所列）的例子。 ”他认为进展，分三个阶段：

– the subprime mortgage bust already experienced; -次级抵押贷款已经经历萧条;

– a severe US recession “just beginning;” and -严重的美国经济衰退“刚刚开始” ;和

– “depression and deflation” to come. -“抑郁症和通货紧缩”的到来。

Home prices will continue falling precipitously with the most over-valued areas and blightest regions with high unemployment hardest hit.房屋价格将继续急剧下降的最超额价值的领域和blightest地区的高失业率的打击最重。 “Never before in history have we witnessed home price declines of this magnitude.” The result of unprecedented levels of debt, speculation, government manipulation, fraud, corruption and consumer abuse. “以前从未在历史上，我们看到房价下跌的这种规模。 ”结果空前的债务水平，投机，政府操纵，欺诈，腐败和消费者滥用。 If history teaches anything, “it’s that unprecedented causes (produce) unprecedented consequences.” It’s now playing out in America and globally with the worst of it to come.如果历史教什么， “这是前所未有的原因（生产）前所未有的后果。 ”现在玩了在美国和全球范围内最惨的时候来。

Another Potential Shoe to Drop 另一个潜在的擦鞋下降

According to Nouriel Roubini in his November 4 commentary titled: “据努鲁比尼在他11月4日的评论标题为： “ The Rising Risk of a Hard Landing in China: The Two Engines of Global Growth - the US and China - are Now Stalling崛起的风险硬着陆中国：两个发动机的全球经济增长-美国和中国-现在失速 “: “ ：

In recent years, “the global economy has been running on two engines, the US on the consumption side and China on the production side, both lifting the global economy.” As the world’s “consumer of first and last resort,” the latest macro data show this engine has effectively shut down.近年来， “全球经济已经运行的两个引擎，美国的消费方面和中国的生产方面，既解除全球经济。 ”作为世界上“消费者的第一和最后的手段， ”在最新的宏观数据显示，这个引擎已经有效地关闭。 “More worrisome,” increasing signs show China is also stalling. “更令人担忧， ”越来越多的迹象表明中国也停滞不前。

Their latest macro data are mixed but all point to “a sharp deceleration of economic growth.” Now at 9% compared to past 12% years.他们最新的宏观数据有好有坏，但都指向“急剧减速的经济增长。 ”现在的9 ％相比，过去几年12 ％ 。 At risk is a potential “hard landing” that for China would mean around 5-6% growth and not the 9-10% it needs to absorb its 24 million new workers annually.风险是一种潜在的“硬着陆” ，对中国将意味着约5-6 ％的增长，而不是9-10 ％ ，它需要吸收了2400万，每年新工人。 Various “macro indicators suggest that China is indeed headed towards a hard landing.” It’s not good news for America, and in combination, aren’t good news for world economies.各种“宏观指标显示，中国确实是走向硬着陆。 ”这不是好消息，北美，并结合，不是好消息，世界经济。

One year ago, Chinese exports to the US grew at an annualized 20% rate.一年前，中国对美国的出口增长年均20 ％的水平。 The most recent trade data show zero growth, but “the worst is still to come in the next few quarters” as US consumption is falling and is expected to continue declining.最近的贸易数据显示，零增长，但“最严重的仍是在未来几个季度”作为美国的消费下降，预计将继续下降。 In addition, nearly all advanced economies face severe recession that will slow China’s growth further.此外，几乎所有发达经济体面临严重的衰退，将减缓中国的经济增长进一步。

Monetary policy may prove ineffective, and analysts disagree about fiscal measures.货币政策可能证明无效，分析师意见分歧的财政措施。 As export demand falls, the country is committed to more infrastructure and other spending and has a huge (nearly $2 trillion) foreign currency war chest to do it.由于出口需求下降，该国致力于更多的基础设施和其他支出，有巨大的（近2万亿美元）的外币战争胸部做到这一点。 But Roubini believes fiscal stimulus will be limited at best.但是，鲁比尼认为，财政刺激将是有限的，充其量。 Because of the combined effects of Olympics spending, natural disasters, and social strife in the West, a large budget hole was created.由于综合影响奥运会的开支，自然灾害和社会动乱在西方，一个大洞预算已创建。 Other factors are in play as well such as a turnover decline in local property markets.其他因素在起作用，以及如营业额下降，当地房地产市场。 Lower fees and taxes have resulted that, in turn, have delayed some industrial development plans.降低税费导致反过来，推迟一些工业发展计划。

A “hard landing” may also increase the amount of non-performing loans from “the still mostly public state banks…. “硬着陆”也可能增加的不良贷款从“仍是国有银行的公开... 。 Once net exports go bust and real investment sharply falls we will see a massive surge in non-performing loans that financed low return and marginal investment projects.一旦净出口进入萧条和房地产投资急剧下降，我们将看到一个大规模的激增，不良贷款资助低收益和边际的投资项目。 The ensuing fiscal costs of cleaning up the banking system could be really high.”随后的财政费用，清理银行系统可真的很高。 “

An additional factor comes from Michael Pettis — a leading Chinese economy expert.另外一个因素来自于迈克尔佩蒂斯-领先的中国经济专家。 That a tax revenue surge “in the last 4 years has been more than matched by (a) surge in spending so that if revenue growth diminishes (or reverses) it might not be easy to slow spending growth proportionately.这税收激增“在过去4年已超过相应的（一）支出激增，因此，如果收入增长的减少（或逆转）这可能不是一件容易的事缓慢的支出增长比例。 Contingent liabilities from non-performing loans could also reduce resources available for a fiscal stimulus.”或有负债从不良贷款还可以降低现有资源的财政刺激。 “

Nonetheless, fiscal measures are being implemented but so far just modestly, and the “big question is (can China) increase (the amount enough) if a quick order hard landing were to occur.” Roubini believes likely not because “moving a massive amount of economic resources from the tradeable (to the non-tradeable infrastructure) sector will take time…” He sees China decelerating to a 2009 7% growth rate — “just a notch above a 6% hard landing (and) an even worse outcome cannot be ruled out…”然而，财政措施正在实施，但迄今只有谦虚，和“最大的问题是（可中国）增加（数量足够）如果为了快速硬着陆的发生。 ”鲁比尼认为可能不会，因为“移动了大量经济资源的交易（非流通基础设施）部门需要一定的时间... “他认为，中国减速到2009年的7 ％的增长速度-”只是一个缺口超过6 ％ ，硬着陆（和）一个更坏的结果不能排除... “

In addition, “a hard landing in China will have severe effects on growth in emerging market economies in Asia, Africa and Latin America as Chinese demand for raw materials and intermediate inputs has been a major source of economic growth for emerging markets and commodity exporters….此外， “硬着陆中国将严重影响经济增长的新兴市场经济体在亚洲，非洲和拉丁美洲的需求作为中国的原材料和中间投入一直是主要来源，经济增长的新兴市场和商品出口商... 。 Thus, global growth — at market prices — will be close to zero in Q3 of 2008, likely negative in Q4 and well into negative territory in 2009.因此，全球经济增长-市场价格-将接近于零，在第三季度的2 0 08年，可能在第四季度负以及到2 1 69.62在2 0 09年。 So brace yourself for an ugly and protracted global economic contraction” next year.因此，支撑自己的一个丑陋的和持久的全球性经济收缩“明年。

On November 4, the US Commerce Department added fuel to that argument as factory orders slumped sharply as US and foreign businesses curtailed their capital equipment demand for the second straight month. 11月4日，美国商务部补充燃料的这一论点的工厂订单大幅下降，美国和外国企业削减其资本设备的需求连续第二个月。 It fell 2.5% in September, much weaker than the 0.2% expected.它下跌2.5 ％ ， 9月，远低于0.2 ％的预期。 In August, it declined 4.3%, the biggest drop in almost two years, and more erosion is expected in the coming months as the US recession deepens.今年8月，下降了4.3 ％ ，最大降幅近两年来，更侵蚀，预计在未来几个月内美国经济衰退加深。

Exacerbated by plunging US auto sales according to the latest reported figures.下跌加剧了美国汽车销售根据最新报道的数字。 They dropped 31% in October to around 850,000 vehicles with GM reporting its worst month since 1945 — down 45% along with Chrysler’s 35% and Ford’s 30%.他们下跌31 ％ ，在10月份左右与85.00万辆通用汽车公司报告其最严重的一个月自1945年以来-下降了4 5％ ，与克莱斯勒的3 5％和福特的3 0％ 。 According to one analyst, adjusted for population increases, it was the worst monthly performance “in the post-WW II era.据一位分析师，调整人口的增加，这是最坏的月度表现“后二战时代。 This is clearly a severe, severe recession,” and auto executives warned that the worst still may lie ahead.这显然是一个严重的，严重的经济衰退“和汽车高层警告说，最坏的可能仍然摆在面前。

Very likely according to the Fed’s Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices.极有可能按照美联储的民意调查对银行贷款的做法。 It shows tighter standards along with weaker loan demand.这显示更严格的标准以及较弱的贷款需求。 It stated: “In the current survey, large net fractions of domestic institutions reported having continued to tighten their lending standards and terms on all major loan categories over the previous three months.” Both to businesses and households.它指出： “在目前的调查显示，大量的净部位的国内机构报告说，继续收紧贷款标准和条件，所有主要的贷款种类比前3个月。 ”都向企业和家庭。 In addition, “Demand for loans from both businesses and households at domestic institutions continued to weaken, on net, over the past three months.”此外， “贷款需求来自企业和家庭在国内机构继续减弱，净，在过去3个月。 ”

At the same time, there are huge federal funding demands that will cause an even greater debt crisis.与此同时，有巨大的联邦资金要求，将会造成更大的债务危机。 The Treasury just announced a need to borrow $550 billion in the current quarter.美国财政部刚刚宣布需要借用五千五万点零零零万美元在当前季度。 Near-term needs may add $2-$3 trillion more to that total — to finance the federal deficit, buy $500 billion in toxic assets, roll over $561 billion in maturing Treasuries, and add the unknown factor of what other needs may arise.短期内需求可能会增加2 -3万亿美元以上，以总-资助联邦赤字，购买50 00亿美元的有毒资产，滚动五千六百十点零零零亿美元在成熟的国债，并添加未知的因素还有什么其他的需求可能会出现。

On November 5, another worrisome one came from the latest ISM non-manufacturing (or service) sector. 11月5日，另一个令人担忧的是来自最新的ISM非制造业（或服务）部门。 It dropped from a neutral 50.2 September reading to 44.4 in October.它从一个中立的50.2 9月读在10月的44.4 。 Another clear sign of contraction.另一个明确迹象收缩。 In addition, the non-manufacturing business activity index fell 7.9 points to 44.2, and the new orders one declined 6.8 points to 44.此外，非制造业活动指数下跌7.9点，至44.2 ，新订单下降6.8 1点，至44 。 The employment index stands at 41.5, and the price index dropped 16.6 points to 53.4.就业指数为41.5 ，价格指数下跌16.6点至53.4 。 Any number below 50 signals contraction.任何数量低于50的信号收缩。

On November 6, two more weak reports came out: 11月6日，两名更弱的报告出来：

– One from retailers showing their sales plummeted to their lowest level in about 40 years. -一个由零售商以显示其销售额大幅下滑来的最低水平约4 0年。 AP retail reporter Anne D’Innocenzio called it “stunning and rare” and said it augurs a bleak outlook for holiday shopping.美联社记者零售业权威称为“惊人罕见的” ，并表示，它预示的是一个黯淡的前景购物。 Michael Niemira, the International Council of Shopping Centers’ chief economist, described October sales as “awful.迈克尔涅米拉，国际购物中心委员会首席经济学家，描述10月份的销售是“可怕的。 This reflects the severity of the current financial crisis.” The ICSC-Goldman Sachs Index registered a 1% decline to its lowest level since at least 1969 when the index was established.这反映了严重的目前的金融危机。 “公务员制度，高盛证券登记指数减少了1 ％以来的最低水平，至少1969年时，该指数成立。

– The Labor Department reported that longer-term jobless benefits hit a 25-year high with the number of people drawing unemployment benefits jumping by 122,000 to 3.84 million in late October. -美国劳工部报告说，长期失业救济人数创2 5年新高的一些人领取失业救济跳跃的1 2.200万至3 84.00万在1 0月下旬。 It was the highest reading since 1983 at a time of deepening recession.这是最高水平自1983年以来的时间深化经济衰退。 In addition, another report showed productivity declined to 1.1% in Q3 compared to 3.6% in Q2.此外，另一份报告显示，生产力下降到1.1 ％ ，第三季度为3.6 ％ ，在第二季度。 Unit labor costs increased at a 3.6% rate compared to .1% in the earlier period.单位劳工成本增加了3.6 ％的增幅相比， 0.1 ％ ，而同期。

The View According to Krassimir Petrov 认为根据克拉斯穆尔彼得罗夫

He’s an economist and assistant professor at the American University in Bulgaria teaching macroeconomics, money and banking, and international finance, and his world view signals trouble of the most serious kind.他是一名经济学家和助理教授，美国大学在保加利亚教学宏观经济，货币和银行，以及国际金融，和他的世界观信号故障最严重的一种。 “Worse than the Great Depression” he explains in a recent article. “不如大萧条” ，他解释在最近的一篇文章。 Gives reasons he feels are compelling, and lists the “very same mistakes that led to the” earlier one only this time they’re even worse:让他觉得原因是令人信服的，并列举了“非常犯同样的错误，导致”以前只有一个这个时候他们更糟糕：

– asset bubbles in stocks, real estate and more; -资产泡沫的股票，地产及以上;

– securitization and the immense amount of toxic debt it created; -证券和大量的有毒造成的债务;

– excessive leverage compounded by a world of hedge funds; -过度利用复杂的世界的对冲基金;

– corrupt gatekeepers that allowed an Enron and Worldcom scandal and today’s far worse problems; -腐败的看门人，让一个安然公司和W orldCom丑闻和今天的严重得多的问题;

– lagging regulations or a complete lack of them where they’re most needed; -落后的规章或完全没有他们在他们最需要的;

– market ideology; laissez unfair fundamentalism; and -市场意识;通行证不公平的原教旨主义;和

– non-transparency to the degree that financial executives even fool themselves. -非透明程度，财务主管甚至愚弄自己。

Combined he sees the current debacle much “worse than the Great Depression” because of six “baked in the cake” fundamental factors:结合他认为目前的崩溃很大“不如大萧条” ，因为六个“烤的蛋糕”的基本因素：

– overvalued real estate to a far greater degree than in the 1920s when most people paid cash for their homes; -过高的房地产以更大程度远远高于1 920年当大多数人用现金购买了他们的家园;

– total US highly-levered credit; again more extreme than in the earlier era; to unprecedented levels; -美国总高度杠杆信贷;再次更极端的比以前的时代;到了前所未有的水平;

– the explosion of derivatives; a thousand trillion dollar “sword of Damocles over the financial system;” an estimated $180 trillion held by banks alone; -爆炸的衍生物; 1 000万亿美元的“达摩克利斯剑的金融体系; ”估计一八○○○○○○○○○○○○○美元举行单独的银行;

– the Dow-gold ratio; the “most important ratio between the relative prices of financial” and real assets; leverage creates an imbalance and implies gross overvaluation; it reached its highest ever level in 2000 and needs painfully more downside to unwind; -道金率;的“最重要的比率之间的相对价格的金融”和真正的资产;利用创造了不平衡和严重高估意味着它达到历史最高水平2 000年的痛苦和需要更多的负面放松;

– global bubbles not easily comparable to the less globalized 1920s; today, however, US stock market and real estate excesses exceed what occurred back then; and -全球气泡不会轻易可比的1 920年不到全球化的今天，但是，美国股市和房地产过度超过当年发生;和

– the collapsing Bretton Woods II as distinguished from Bretton Woods I tied to gold and its ability to restrain credit and financial excesses. -折叠布雷顿森林二不同于布雷顿森林我挂钩黄金和能力，抑制信贷和金融过激行为。

Today’s cumulative imbalances far exceed those of the earlier era and suggest a very grim outlook - if Petrov is right.今天的累积性失衡远远超过先前的时代，并提出了非常严峻的前景-如果彼得罗夫是正确的。 His advice, and he’s not alone - think gold.他的意见，他并不孤单-想金牌。

A Morning-After Reality Check 上午，检查后的现实

November 4 election night. 11月4日大选之夜。 It was a happening at Chicago’s Grant Park.这是一个发生在芝加哥的格兰特公园。 Like New Year’s eve in Times Square.如同除夕在纽约时代广场。 Expectant many tens of thousands assembled for a huge victory rally.期待许多数以万计的组装为一个巨大的胜利集会。 Office buildings were emptied to let them come.办事处大楼空，让他们来。 They arrived early.年初，他们抵达。 Awaiting official word that their man won.等待正式一词，他们的男子韩元。 Eager to greet him.渴望迎接。 The new president-elect.新当选总统。 A change of the guard.变化的警惕。 A new day.一种新的一天。 At around 10PM, the crowd erupted when on giant TV screens CNN called it for Obama.大约晚上10时，人群爆发时的巨型电视屏幕呼吁美国为奥巴马。 “Yes we can” people chanted. “是的，我们可以”以人高喊。

It was mass euphoria.这是群众兴高采烈。 At a time of deepening financial duress.在时间的深化金融胁迫。 The worst in many decades.最严重的几十年的时间。 Hitting Chicagaons hard like many others. Chicagaons很难触及许多其他国家一样。 The nation at war on two fronts as well.在民族战争在两条战线上的。 A possible new one with Iran, and a new Cold War with Russia in the wings.一种可能的新的与伊朗，和一个新的冷战时期与俄罗斯的翅膀。 Out of sight and mind as Chicago threw a party and brought the whole city to a halt.视线范围之外，并考虑到芝加哥投掷党和使整个城市陷入停顿。 Until after midnight when crowds began dispersing.直到午夜过后开始时，人群驱散。

All night electricity filled the air.所有的电力填补夜晚的空气。 “Finally we have someone who will change the world,” said a woman. “最后，我们谁也有人将改变世界，说： ”一个女人。 “He’ll put the right people in the right jobs,” said another. “他会把合适的人在正确的就业机会， ”另一个说。 “He wants to make a difference in our country,” one more. “他想有所作为在我国， ”一个更多。 Not a hint of negativity in sight.不是一个消极暗示的迹象。 Not tonight at least.今晚没有至少。 Tomorrow will be soon enough.明天将是很快。 Mark January 20 as the day it arrives.马克1月20日的一天到达。 Inauguration day.一天宣誓就职。 In the meantime, party on.与此同时，党。

In less than three months, the age of George Bush will end and a new Obama one will begin.在不到三个月的时间内，年龄布什政府将结束和一个新的奥巴马一个开始。 Will it be different or more of the same?会是不同的或更多的相同？ Will the new president be less hawkish?将新总统，升幅为1.31 ？ Less supportive of massive Wall Street bailouts?那么支持大规模华尔街金援？ Socialism for the rich and the hindmost for the rest?社会主义的丰富和灭的休息？ Less controlled by monied interests?不到控制monied的利益？ More committed to public need?更加致力于公共需要？ Main Street over Wall Street?主街超过华尔街？ More eager to end foreign wars?更热衷于战争结束外国？ More dedicated to a new course?更多专用到一个新的课程？ Reversing his predecessor’s toxic legacy?扭转其前任的有毒遗产？ Governing responsibly for the first time in decades?负责任的政府几十年来第一次？ Maybe ever, but at least since the New Deal?也许永远，但至少自新政？ Is anything close to that possible?任何接近可能吗？ Think so?这样想的吗？ Think again.再想一想。

Comparing Obama to FDR and expecting another New Deal is ludicrous.比较奥巴马以罗斯福和期待另一新政是荒唐可笑的。 Yet with every new president hope springs eternal.然而，随着每一个新总统希望泉水永恒的。 Candidates promise change (or at least suggest it) and people buy it.考生许诺改变（或至少表明它）和人买。 A new course.一种新的课程。 Racial harmony.种族和谐。 Peace and prosperity.和平与繁荣。 Populist reform and a radical shift away from the Bush administration’s toxic extremism.民粹主义的改革和彻底偏离了布什政府的有毒极端主义。 A deep breath please for a reality check.深呼吸，请为一个现实检查。 A wake-up call.敲响了警钟。 A cold shower.冷淋浴。

Obama is a creation of Wall Street and America’s boardroom rulers.奥巴马是一个创造了华尔街和美国的董事会的统治者。 Its dominant corporate power.其主导企业权力。 His administration:他的管理：

– will continue an imperial agenda; -将继续帝国主义的议程;

– won’t end foreign wars; -不会结束外国战争;

– won’t repeal repressive police state laws; -将不会废除镇压的警察国家的法律;

– will let corruption go unpunished; -将让腐败逍遥法外;

– will continue to serve monied interests; -将继续担任m onied利益;

– send hundreds of billions more to bankers; -发送数千亿更多的银行家;

– loot the federal treasury to do it; -抢劫联邦国库这样做;

– let taxpayers fund it; -让纳税人提供资金;

– let Wall Street run the Treasury with either Goldman Sachs executives or others just like them; -让华尔街运行或者财政部与高盛公司高管或其他人一样;

– increase the size of the military; -增加规模的军队;

– send more troops to Afghanistan; -派遣更多部队到阿富汗;

– continue occupying Iraq; -继续占领伊拉克;

– begin a new Cold War with Russia; -开始了一个新的冷战时期与俄罗斯;

– continue attacking Pakistan; -继续攻击巴基斯坦;

– possibly Iran as well;

– will keep waging the “war on terrorism;”

– will continue one-sided support for Israel’s repressive occupation of Palestine and proved it by choosing pro-Israeli hardliner and neoliberal Rahm Emanuel as his White House chief of staff; it’s considered the most powerful executive branch position after the president and a Dick Cheney type vice-presidency; Emanuel rammed through NAFTA for Clinton and is a Democratic Leadership Council (DLC) insider;

– will send Israel billions of dollars, the latest weapons and technology, and much more annually;

– will maintain the Cuban embargo;

– hostility toward Hugo Chavez and all other independent leaders, democrats or despots;

– will support neoliberal “free trade;”

– keep undermining labor;

– do nothing to foster racial harmony;

– or defend the rights of immigrant workers;

– or reform the US gulag prison system; the largest in the world by far; affecting mostly poor people of color; his own people;

– won’t end the barbaric death penalty;

– won’t release political prisoners or end the war on Islam;

– will support privatizing public education;

– will ignore the plight of tens of millions with no health insurance and many millions more with too little;

– will back a business as usual agenda because “the business of America is business,” and Obama won’t ever forget it. Or the foreign wars he’ll support in its behalf, and

– will protect the two-party duopoly and do nothing to make an anti-democratic America more democratic.

Think a new progressive age is dawning? Think again. An Obama presidency will go Lincoln one better. It’ll prove that the electorate can be fooled “all of the time” or enough of them long enough before eventually they’ll know they were had — fooled again. One commentator put it up this way: “Forget the honeymoon - I want a divorce,” and Ralph Nader asked: Will Barak Obama be an “Uncle Sam for the people of this country, or Uncle Tom for the giant corporations?”

That said, consider two positive things. Thankfully, Obama isn’t John McCain, and given the dire state of things, he and Congress may have to help people in need. It will be woefully inadequate, packaged to look otherwise, but may be enough to contain public anger. Unless things get so dire, nothing less than massive stimulus will help, and then political exigencies may force a more progressive agenda than party leaders now have in mind. It’s how the New Deal came about. Enlightened politicians and some business leaders were scared enough to give a little to save capitalism. In the months ahead, that choice may again arise.

A View from the UK

It comes from Ambrose Evans-Pritchard in his November 4 commentary headlined: “Revenge of the Left across the world.” He suggests the possibility that America’s election will produce a hostile laissez-faire climate given that “capitalism has run amok” and caused damage so great that Obama “may have to pursue unthinkable policies.” Just as Franklin Roosevelt did once in office.

True or not, some observers believe it or at least are hopeful. Ninety-one year old Eric Hobsbawm for one. The famed British Marxist historian and author in a BBC interview. He calls today’s events “the dramatic equivalent of the collapse of the Soviet Union: we now know that an era has ended. It is certainly the greatest crisis of capitalism since the 1930s. As Marx and Schumpeter foresaw, globalization not only destroys heritage, but is incredibly unstable. It operates through a series of crises.”

This one will result in “a much greater role for the state, one way or another. We’ve already got the state as lender of last resort. We might well return to the idea of the state as employer of last resort” the way it was under FDR.

Evans-Pritchard is sympathetic and disagrees with those who think business can go on as usual given that governments have stepped in with massive rescue packages. He quotes Germany’s foreign minister, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, saying: “The rule of the radical market ideology that began with Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan has ended with a loud bang. We need a comprehensive new start, so we can reestablish our society on fresh foundations. People create value, not locusts.” Thatcher’s TINA (there is no alternative) has come full circle. It was fraudulent on its face and is now turned on it head.

So says Nicolas Sarkozy in his “ Laissez-faire, c’est fini ” comment that needs no translation. “We will intervene massively whenever a strategic enterprise needs our money,” he said. It’s pouring out of Washington, the UK, and most Western European capitals in a frantic effort to staunch the bleeding that keeps gushing no matter what they do. Because of what Evans-Pritchard calls the “awful truth.” Gross excesses producing awesome credit bubbles now imploding and landing with a thud. Their “shock will move by degrees from revulsion to political rage.” It produced Hitler in 1930s Germany. Hobsbawm hopes America will be wiser and choose socialism over “the Hegelian broth nearing the boil in Europe.”

Given current conditions near certain to worsen and a new US administration in power, it’s anyone’s guess how a crisis this grave will be resolved or how things will look when it ends. One thing, however, is sure. The age of George Bush is over, and not a moment too soon. But undoing his damage may be too great a task for any head of state — even for all of them combined. The wages of sin are now due.

Have Your Say: Lendman: The Wages of Sin
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