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星期六， 2008年6月7日

由Andy · Rowell | 世界开始抗议以巨大的汽油价格他们支付在泵浦的消费者。 但，世界变疯狂在油价，那里让标志担心什么在可能也拼写灾害的气体市场上发生。

但它是当前受到所有注意的油价。 上个月， 印度尼西亚总统 Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono延期了一次正式访问 欧洲 在全国性抗议之中反对汽油价格增量。  在 欧洲, 法语 渔夫被继续封锁战略数 口岸，他们的相对物 西班牙 并且葡萄牙也被威胁的抗议。

在英国，卡车司机在伦敦聚合请求对燃料义务的减少，头等大教堂 Gordon Brown 与石油工业的举行的迫切谈话。 在美国油价说强制了许多载重汽车运输公司对破产边缘。

但是，当油继续盘旋在记录水平之下，有每日警告天便宜的油永远去，并且油的价格也许很快是$150甚至$200每桶由明年。

也有一次每日辩论至于什么实际上导致这些史无前例的价格。 显要的声音的一个增长的数字认为它与实际石油供应无关，但它下降对利用挥发性市场的投机商。

石油输出国组织，在火之下从许多评论员为不增加  生产更，争辩说已经充分地供应市场，并且， $35每最近增量的桶可以被放下到猜想。

其他声音同意，例如Jeroen van der Ver，全球性石油巨商，壳头，争辩说，记录油价归结于“市场情绪”而不是供应短缺。 “什么我们说和什么我们看见是那里是没有物理短缺”，他说。 “那里 不是等待在中东的罐车，那里是没有等待在加油站的汽车，因为他们脱销。 这在市场上必须处理心理学，并且您不可能展望心理学”。

His view is shared by George Soros, the multi-billion dollar financier, known as the man who nearly “broke the Bank of England”, in the early nineties. Soros argues that it is financial speculators that are largely responsible for driving the crude oil price. “Speculation… is increasingly affecting the price,” he said. “The price has this parabolic shape which is characteristic of bubbles,” he said.

Political action on speculators is increasing. Last week a senior German politician proposed a worldwide ban on oil trading by speculators. Uwe Beckmeyer, the head of transport for the Social Democratic party, the junior partner in Chancellor Angela Merkel’s ruling coalition, argued that the recent 25 per cent rise in oil price had nothing to do with underlying supply and demand. “It’s pure speculation,” he said, adding that his party would be calling for joint measures by the G8 to prohibit leveraged trading on energy contracts.

Also last week, in America, Senator Jeff Bingaman, the chairman of the influential  Senate Energy Committee, asked the top futures market regulator in the US, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, for more information about how much impact speculation was having on the oil futures market. Bingamen then complained he had been given “glaringly incomplete” data by the CFTC,  which argued that speculative trading was not to blame for recent price rises.

If speculation is not to blame, what is? Some argue that it is the weak dollar. Steve Hanke, professor of applied economics at Johns Hopkins University in the US argues that “Twenty-five percent of the increase in oil prices is strictly due to the fact that the dollar has gone down by 25 percent, because oil all over the world is priced in dollars.”

However, others are now arguing that the high oil price is down to good old simple economics. Demand has outstripped supply over the last couple of years and so the price has increased, on the back of roaring demand, especially from China and the Middle East. “The high-priced energy environment is being driven by the fact that demand has outstripped supply,” President George Bush’s Energy Secretary, Samuel Bodman, said this month: “We have sopped up all the available spare oil production capacity in the system.”

Others concur. One of the authoritative arbiters of how much oil there is the International Energy Agency, that is currently in the middle of its first attempt to comprehensively assess the condition of the world’s top 400 oil fields.  Although the findings will not be published until November, according to the Wall Street Journal the IEA is “preparing a sharp downward revision of its oil-supply forecast, a shift that reflects deepening pessimism over whether oil companies can keep abreast of booming demand.”

Fatih Birol, the International Energy Agency’s chief economist, said the oil industry had entered “a new energy world order” where it was harder to keep supply and demand in equilibrium. “What has happened in the last few years has not been in line with economic theory,” he says.

For years the IEA predicted that supplies of crude would gently increase in line with demand increasing to some 117 million barrels per day by 2030. But not anymore. Buried in the IEA website are figures that up the theory that the supply of oil is in real trouble. Since the beginning of 2004, oil’s price has gone from $33 per barrel to over $130 per barrel. In the same period, demand has increased by some 4.3 million barrels per day to 86.5 million barrels per day, whereas supply has increased by only 2.2 million barrels per day to 85.6 million. Supply is already struggling to keep up with demand, let alone reach over 100 million barrels a day.

The bottom line is that demand is now outstripping supply, giving credence to the peak oil pundits that the days of cheap oil over, and the global economy could be heading for a nasty shock.  

See More:World News 

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