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Sabato 7 giugno 2008

Da Andy Rowell | Consumatori che l'eccedenza del mondo sta cominciando a protestare i prezzi enormi della benzina stanno pagando alla pompa. Ma mentre il mondo va pazzesco sopra i prezzi del petrolio, là stanno preoccupando i segni per che cosa sta accadendo nel mercato del gas che potrebbe anche ortografare il disastro.

Ma è il prezzo del petrolio che attualmente sta attraendo tutta l'attenzione. Ultimo mese, Presidente indonesiano Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono ha posposto una chiamata ufficiale a Europa in mezzo delle proteste nazionali contro gli aumenti di prezzi di combustibile.  In Europa, Francese pescatori continuati per bloccare vari strategici orificii, mentre le loro controparti dentro La Spagna e proteste anche minacciate del Portogallo.

Nel Regno Unito, i camionisti hanno converso su Londra per chiedere una riduzione del dovere del combustibile, mentre Minster principale Gordon Brown colloqui urgenti tenuti con l'industria petrolifera petrolifera. Sopra in America, il prezzo del petrolio si è detto per forzare molte aziende di trasporto per mezzo di autocarri al bordo di fallimento.

Ma poichè l'olio continua a librarsi appena sotto i livelli record, ci sono avvertimenti quotidiani che i giorni di olio poco costoso sono andato per sempre ed il prezzo di olio può presto essere $150 o persino $200 un il barilotto entro l'anno prossimo.

Ci è inoltre un dibattito quotidiano quanto a che cosa realmente sta causando questi prezzi senza precedente. Un numero aumentante di voci influenti sta dicendo che ha niente a che fare con il rifornimento reale di olio ma è giù agli speculatori che sfruttano il mercato volatile.

OPEC, che è sotto fuoco da molti commentatori per non aumentare  la produzione più, sostiene che il mercato già è fornito adeguatamente e che $35 per il barilotto dell'aumento recente possono essere posati alla speculazione.

Altre voci accosentono, quale Jeroen van der Ver, testa del gigante globale dell'olio, Shell, che sostiene che i prezzi del petrolio record sono dovuto “il sentimento del mercato„ piuttosto che una scarsità di rifornimento. “Che cosa diciamo e che cosa vediamo siamo là siamo scarsità fisiche,„ dice. “Là non ci sono autocisterne che attendono nel Medio Oriente, là sono automobili che attendono alle stazioni della benzina perché sono fuori - di - azione. Ciò riguarda la psicologia nei mercati e non potete prevedere la psicologia.„

His view is shared by George Soros, the multi-billion dollar financier, known as the man who nearly “broke the Bank of England”, in the early nineties. Soros argues that it is financial speculators that are largely responsible for driving the crude oil price. “Speculation… is increasingly affecting the price,” he said. “The price has this parabolic shape which is characteristic of bubbles,” he said.

Political action on speculators is increasing. Last week a senior German politician proposed a worldwide ban on oil trading by speculators. Uwe Beckmeyer, the head of transport for the Social Democratic party, the junior partner in Chancellor Angela Merkel’s ruling coalition, argued that the recent 25 per cent rise in oil price had nothing to do with underlying supply and demand. “It’s pure speculation,” he said, adding that his party would be calling for joint measures by the G8 to prohibit leveraged trading on energy contracts.

Also last week, in America, Senator Jeff Bingaman, the chairman of the influential  Senate Energy Committee, asked the top futures market regulator in the US, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, for more information about how much impact speculation was having on the oil futures market. Bingamen then complained he had been given “glaringly incomplete” data by the CFTC,  which argued that speculative trading was not to blame for recent price rises.

If speculation is not to blame, what is? Some argue that it is the weak dollar. Steve Hanke, professor of applied economics at Johns Hopkins University in the US argues that “Twenty-five percent of the increase in oil prices is strictly due to the fact that the dollar has gone down by 25 percent, because oil all over the world is priced in dollars.”

However, others are now arguing that the high oil price is down to good old simple economics. Demand has outstripped supply over the last couple of years and so the price has increased, on the back of roaring demand, especially from China and the Middle East. “The high-priced energy environment is being driven by the fact that demand has outstripped supply,” President George Bush’s Energy Secretary, Samuel Bodman, said this month: “We have sopped up all the available spare oil production capacity in the system.”

Others concur. One of the authoritative arbiters of how much oil there is the International Energy Agency, that is currently in the middle of its first attempt to comprehensively assess the condition of the world’s top 400 oil fields.  Although the findings will not be published until November, according to the Wall Street Journal the IEA is “preparing a sharp downward revision of its oil-supply forecast, a shift that reflects deepening pessimism over whether oil companies can keep abreast of booming demand.”

Fatih Birol, the International Energy Agency’s chief economist, said the oil industry had entered “a new energy world order” where it was harder to keep supply and demand in equilibrium. “What has happened in the last few years has not been in line with economic theory,” he says.

For years the IEA predicted that supplies of crude would gently increase in line with demand increasing to some 117 million barrels per day by 2030. But not anymore. Buried in the IEA website are figures that up the theory that the supply of oil is in real trouble. Since the beginning of 2004, oil’s price has gone from $33 per barrel to over $130 per barrel. In the same period, demand has increased by some 4.3 million barrels per day to 86.5 million barrels per day, whereas supply has increased by only 2.2 million barrels per day to 85.6 million. Supply is already struggling to keep up with demand, let alone reach over 100 million barrels a day.

The bottom line is that demand is now outstripping supply, giving credence to the peak oil pundits that the days of cheap oil over, and the global economy could be heading for a nasty shock.  

See More:World News 

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