We Must Imagine a Life Without Oil我們必須想像一個生活無油
By Mark Hertsgaard -由馬克hertsgaard - The Nation民族 | It used to be that only environmentalists and paranoids warned about running out of oil. |它曾經是只有環保主義者和paranoids警告，石油耗盡。 Not anymore.沒有了。 As climate change did over the past few years, peak oil seems poised to become the next big idea commanding the attention of governments, businesses and citizens the world over.作為氣候變化並在過去幾年裡，山頂的石油，似乎即將成為下一個大的想法指揮注意各國政府，企業和公民的世界。 The arrival of $119-a-barrel crude and $4-a-gallon gasoline this spring are but the most obvious signs that global oil production has or soon will peak.到達$ 119 - 1桶原油和4元一加侖汽油，這是春天，但最明顯的跡象表明，全球石油生產已經或很快將高峰。 With global demand inexorably rising, a limited supply will bring higher, more volatile prices and eventually shortages that could provoke — to quote the title of the must-see peak oil documentary — the end of suburbia.與全球需求無情地上升，供應有限，會帶來更高，更不穩定，價格和短缺，最終可能挑起-引用的標題了必須看到，繁忙的石油紀錄片-年底su burbia。 If the era of cheap, abundant oil is indeed coming to a close, the world’s economy and, paradoxically, the fight against climate change could be in deep trouble.如果時代的廉價，豐富的石油，實在即將結束，世界經濟和矛盾的是，打擊氣候變化，可在深的麻煩。
Though largely unnoticed by the world media, a decisive moment in the peak oil debate came last September, when James Schlesinger declared that the “peakists” were right.雖然在很大程度上忽略由世界媒體，一個決定性的時刻在山頂石油辯論來到去年9月，當施萊辛格宣布“ peakists ”是正確的。 You don’t get closer to the American establishment and energy business than Schlesinger, who has served as chair of the Atomic Energy Commission, head of the CIA, Defense Secretary, Energy Secretary and adviser to countless oil companies.你不接近美國的建立和能源事業比施萊辛格，一直擔任主席的原子能委員會，主管中央情報局，國防司，能源司和顧問無數的油公司。 In a speech to a conference sponsored by the Association for the Study of Peak Oil, Schlesinger said, “It’s no longer the case that we have a few voices crying in the wilderness.在一次講話中的一個會議協會主辦的這項研究的高峰石油，施萊辛格說： “這已不再是個案，我們有幾個哭的聲音，在曠野中。 The battle is over.戰鬥已經結束。 The peakists have won.” Schlesinger added that many oil company CEOs privately agree that peak oil is imminent but don’t say so publicly.該peakists ，贏得了“ 。施萊辛格補充說，許多油公司的CEO私下同意，山頂石油是迫在眉睫，但不這樣說的話公開。
One who does is Jeroen van der Veer, CEO of Royal Dutch Shell.一個人是否是韋爾（ Jeroen范德偉，總裁兼首席執行官荷蘭皇家殼牌。 Without using the term “peak oil,” van der Veer warned in January, “After 2015, easily accessible supplies of oil and gas probably will no longer keep up with demand.”沒有使用“石油高峰期， ”范德偉警告，今年1月， “ 2015年之後，方便供應石油和天然氣可能將不再保持，以滿足市場需求” 。
Of course, peak oil could arrive sooner than 2015; columnist George Monbiot has claimed in the Guardian that a Citibank report calculates the date at 2012.當然，繁忙的石油可能提前於2015年;專欄作家喬治monbiot要求在監護人認為，花旗銀行的報告計算的日期在2012年。 But even 2015 leaves a very short time in which to prepare, because modern societies were built on cheap, abundant oil.但即使到2015年，留下了很短的時間內，其中準備，因為現代社會建立在廉價，豐富的石油。
“The world has never faced a problem like this,” warned a 2005 study funded by George W. Bush’s Energy Department. “世界上從來沒有面對的一個問題是這樣的： ”警告， 2005年的研究資助布什能源署。 “Previous energy transitions (wood to coal and coal to oil) were gradual and evolutionary; oil peaking will be abrupt and revolutionary.” “以往的能源轉換（木材，煤炭和煤炭石油）循序漸進的進化;石油高峰將突發性和革命性的” 。
The United States, with its two-hour commutes, three-car families, atrophied mass transit and petroleum-based food system, is most vulnerable to an oil shock.美國，其兩小時通勤，三車的家庭，萎縮的集體運輸和以石油為基礎的糧食系統，是最脆弱的一個石油衝擊。 But similar vulnerabilities exist in most industrial societies, not to mention the roaring economies of China and India, where oil consumption is rising faster even than GDP as newly middle-class consumers buy the cars they have long dreamed of.但類似的安全漏洞存在於大多數的工業社會，更遑論伴著隆隆的經濟，中國和印度，那裡的石油消費量正在上升快，甚至比國內生產總值為新中產階層消費者購買的汽車，他們有長期的夢想。
At first glance, one might think that peak oil would help the fight against climate change.乍看之下，一人可能認為繁忙的石油將有助於打擊氣候變化的影響。 After all, less available oil should translate into less oil consumption and lower greenhouse gas emissions.畢竟，少油，應可轉化為少油的消費和降低溫室氣體的排放。 But modern civilization, to borrow George W. Bush’s term, is addicted to oil.但現代文明，借用布什的任期，是上癮的石油。 If peak oil arrives before the addiction is treated, the junkie will seek even more dangerous ways to get his fix.如果高峰期到來之前，石油成癮是治療， junkie將尋求更危險的方法來得到他的修補程序。
Indeed, this is already happening.事實上，這是已經發生的事情。 In Canada, energy companies are mining so-called tar sands — a mix of sand, water and heavy crude oil that can be refined into usable petroleum.在加拿大，能源公司是採礦，使所謂的焦油沙-混合砂，水和重質原油可以提煉成可用的石油。 But burning tar sands is about the worst thing to do if we want to avoid catastrophic climate change because the resulting petroleum has a much greater carbon footprint than conventional oil.但焚燒瀝青砂是最壞的事，如果我們要避免災難性的氣候變化，因為由此產生的石油有更大的碳足跡，比常規石油。 Currently, a dozen such projects are under way; projects awaiting approval would quadruple the emissions those projects generate.目前，十幾個這樣的項目正在進行之中;項目等待批准將翻兩番，排放這些項目產生。 One encouraging sign: in response to a lawsuit filed by Ecojustice, the top federal court in Canada has temporarily blocked a tar sands project proposed by an ExxonMobil subsidiary on climate change grounds.一個令人鼓舞的跡象：在回應訴訟ecojustice ，最高聯邦法院在加拿大已暫時封鎖了焦油砂項目所提出的一埃克森美孚公司的附屬關於氣候變化的理由。 “This is something which will clearly apply to every single oil-sands project that comes before environmental assessment of any kind,” said Sean Nixon, a lawyer for Ecojustice Canada. “這是一些顯然會適用於每一個單一的油砂項目在先，環境評估任何形式的，說： ”肖恩尼克松的一名律師ecojustice加拿大。
More encouragement: some high-level government officials recognize the danger of peak oil and may be contemplating action.更多的鼓勵：一些高級別政府官員認識到危險的高峰石油和可能contemplating行動。 British Foreign Secretary David Miliband wants his country to consider creating “a post-oil economy.” New York Governor David Paterson has spoken in detail about the imminence of peak oil and what government can do about it: invest in greater energy efficiency in the short term and new low-carbon energy sources in the medium to long term.英國外交大臣大衛米利希望他的國家考慮建立“後石油經濟”新的紐約總督朱百德的發言，詳細了解了緊迫的高峰石油和什麼政府可以做的關於它：投資於提高能源效率，在短期內任期和新的低碳能源來源，在中期至長期的。 Plug-in hybrid cars, for example, can get more than 100 miles per gallon — double that of today’s generation of hybrids.外掛在混合動力汽車，舉例來說，可以得到多於100英里每加侖-的兩倍，今天的一代雜種。 And if the plug-in hybrids rely on electricity generated by solar, wind or other green energy sources, they fight climate change and peak oil at the same time.如果該插件在雜種依賴於所產生的電力是由太陽能，風能或其他綠色能源的來源，他們又打氣候變化和石油高峰在同一時間內。
Finally, activists in scores of towns and cities around the world are trying to prepare their communities for the transition to a post-oil economy.最後，活動在分數城鎮和世界各地的城市正在準備他們的社區，為過渡到後石油經濟。 Rather than wait for national governments and multinational corporations to save them, these ordinary citizens are examining how their communities can produce their own energy, food, buildings and other essentials using local resources rather than materials that arrive from afar via oil-based transport.而非等待各國政府和跨國企業來營救他們，這些普通市民現正研究如何在他們的社區能產生他們自己的能源，食品，建築和其他必需品的利用當地資源，而不是材料到達從遠處通過石油為基礎的交通工具。 “Economic relocalization will be one of the inevitable impacts of the end of cheap transportation fuels,” argues peak oil theorist Richard Heinberg. “經濟relocalization將是一個必然的影響，年底廉價的運輸燃料， ”石油高峰辯稱，理論家理查德海因伯格。 In Britain this movement has taken the form of “transition towns,” which seek, in the words of organizer Rob Hopkins, “to design a conscious pathway down from the oil peak.” Drawing on the experience of his hometown of Totnes, in Devon, Hopkins has just published The Transition Handbook , which explains how other towns can also begin preparing for the post-oil future.在英國這項運動，採取的形式是“過渡城鎮， ”尋求，在的話，主辦單位搶霍普金斯， “設計一個自覺的途徑是從石油高峰” ，借鑒的經驗，他的家鄉totnes ，在德宏，霍普金斯剛剛發表的過渡手冊 ，說明如何其他城鎮也可以開始準備後石油的未來。
Some of the transition movement’s ideas — printing local currency, forming solar buying clubs, building “cob” houses made of mud — may seem quaint, inconvenient or naïve.一些轉型期運動的理念-印刷當地貨幣，形成了太陽能購買俱樂部，建設“芯”住房取得的泥-似乎是古樸，不便或幼稚的。 But nothing is more naïve than assuming that the endless oil that modern societies grew addicted to over the past fifty years will last forever.但沒有什麼更多的天真，比假設無休止的石油，現代社會的成長耽溺在過去五十年將持續永遠。 The day of reckoning appears imminent, and as Hopkins says, “it is better to plan for it than be taken by surprise.”當天推算，似乎迫在眉睫，並作為霍普金斯說： “這是更好的計劃，這比將要採取的意外” 。
See More: 看到更多的： Oil 石油 World News 世界新聞Have Your Say: We Must Imagine a Life Without Oil 你說：我們必須想像一個生活無油
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One Response to “We Must Imagine a Life Without Oil” 1回應： “我們必須想像一個生活無油”
Poul Andreasen 保羅安德烈亞森
Posted: Apr 30th, 2008 at 2:12 pm | 發布時間： 2008年4月30日在下午2時12分| Link to this 鏈接到本
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Very good abstract of current situation.很好的摘要的現狀。
I am thankful that I live in Denmark, where high energy taxes - gas being US$ 9 a gallon - and substantial investments in alternative energy sources - 25% of our electricity comes from wind - makes us a little bit better off on the slope downhill from peak.我很感謝我住在丹麥，高能源稅-氣體的9美元一加侖-和巨額投資，在替代能源-2 5％的電力來自風力-讓我們一點點較佳的對邊坡下坡從山頂。 Let’s use the remaining oil wisely for the final transition away from fossil fuels.讓我們使用剩餘油明智，為最終過渡遠離礦物燃料。