We Must Imagine a Life Without Oil我们必须想象一个生活无油
By Mark Hertsgaard -由马克hertsgaard - The Nation民族 | It used to be that only environmentalists and paranoids warned about running out of oil. |它曾经是只有环保主义者和paranoids警告，石油耗尽。 Not anymore.没有了。 As climate change did over the past few years, peak oil seems poised to become the next big idea commanding the attention of governments, businesses and citizens the world over.作为气候变化并在过去几年里，山顶的石油，似乎即将成为下一个大的想法指挥注意各国政府，企业和公民的世界。 The arrival of $119-a-barrel crude and $4-a-gallon gasoline this spring are but the most obvious signs that global oil production has or soon will peak.到达$ 119 - 1桶原油和4元一加仑汽油，这是春天，但最明显的迹象表明，全球石油生产已经或很快将高峰。 With global demand inexorably rising, a limited supply will bring higher, more volatile prices and eventually shortages that could provoke — to quote the title of the must-see peak oil documentary — the end of suburbia.与全球需求无情地上升，供应有限，会带来更高，更不稳定，价格和短缺，最终可能挑起-引用的标题了必须看到，繁忙的石油纪录片-年底su burbia。 If the era of cheap, abundant oil is indeed coming to a close, the world’s economy and, paradoxically, the fight against climate change could be in deep trouble.如果时代的廉价，丰富的石油，实在即将结束，世界经济和矛盾的是，打击气候变化，可在深的麻烦。
Though largely unnoticed by the world media, a decisive moment in the peak oil debate came last September, when James Schlesinger declared that the “peakists” were right.虽然在很大程度上忽略由世界媒体，一个决定性的时刻在山顶石油辩论来到去年9月，当施莱辛格宣布“ peakists ”是正确的。 You don’t get closer to the American establishment and energy business than Schlesinger, who has served as chair of the Atomic Energy Commission, head of the CIA, Defense Secretary, Energy Secretary and adviser to countless oil companies.你不接近美国的建立和能源事业比施莱辛格，一直担任主席的原子能委员会，主管中央情报局，国防司，能源司和顾问无数的油公司。 In a speech to a conference sponsored by the Association for the Study of Peak Oil, Schlesinger said, “It’s no longer the case that we have a few voices crying in the wilderness.在一次讲话中的一个会议协会主办的这项研究的高峰石油，施莱辛格说： “这已不再是个案，我们有几个哭的声音，在旷野中。 The battle is over.战斗已经结束。 The peakists have won.” Schlesinger added that many oil company CEOs privately agree that peak oil is imminent but don’t say so publicly.该peakists ，赢得了“ 。施莱辛格补充说，许多油公司的CEO私下同意，山顶石油是迫在眉睫，但不这样说的话公开。
One who does is Jeroen van der Veer, CEO of Royal Dutch Shell.一个人是否是韦尔（ Jeroen范德伟，总裁兼首席执行官荷兰皇家壳牌。 Without using the term “peak oil,” van der Veer warned in January, “After 2015, easily accessible supplies of oil and gas probably will no longer keep up with demand.”没有使用“石油高峰期， ”范德伟警告，今年1月， “ 2015年之后，方便供应石油和天然气可能将不再保持，以满足市场需求” 。
Of course, peak oil could arrive sooner than 2015; columnist George Monbiot has claimed in the Guardian that a Citibank report calculates the date at 2012.当然，繁忙的石油可能提前于2015年;专栏作家乔治monbiot要求在监护人认为，花旗银行的报告计算的日期在2012年。 But even 2015 leaves a very short time in which to prepare, because modern societies were built on cheap, abundant oil.但即使到2015年，留下了很短的时间内，其中准备，因为现代社会建立在廉价，丰富的石油。
“The world has never faced a problem like this,” warned a 2005 study funded by George W. Bush’s Energy Department. “世界上从来没有面对的一个问题是这样的： ”警告， 2005年的研究资助布什能源署。 “Previous energy transitions (wood to coal and coal to oil) were gradual and evolutionary; oil peaking will be abrupt and revolutionary.” “以往的能源转换（木材，煤炭和煤炭石油）循序渐进的进化;石油高峰将突发性和革命性的” 。
The United States, with its two-hour commutes, three-car families, atrophied mass transit and petroleum-based food system, is most vulnerable to an oil shock.美国，其两小时通勤，三车的家庭，萎缩的集体运输和以石油为基础的粮食系统，是最脆弱的一个石油冲击。 But similar vulnerabilities exist in most industrial societies, not to mention the roaring economies of China and India, where oil consumption is rising faster even than GDP as newly middle-class consumers buy the cars they have long dreamed of.但类似的安全漏洞存在于大多数的工业社会，更遑论伴着隆隆的经济，中国和印度，那里的石油消费量正在上升快，甚至比国内生产总值为新中产阶层消费者购买的汽车，他们有长期的梦想。
At first glance, one might think that peak oil would help the fight against climate change.乍看之下，一人可能认为繁忙的石油将有助于打击气候变化的影响。 After all, less available oil should translate into less oil consumption and lower greenhouse gas emissions.毕竟，少油，应可转化为少油的消费和降低温室气体的排放。 But modern civilization, to borrow George W. Bush’s term, is addicted to oil.但现代文明，借用布什的任期，是上瘾的石油。 If peak oil arrives before the addiction is treated, the junkie will seek even more dangerous ways to get his fix.如果高峰期到来之前，石油成瘾是治疗， junkie将寻求更危险的方法来得到他的修补程序。
Indeed, this is already happening.事实上，这是已经发生的事情。 In Canada, energy companies are mining so-called tar sands — a mix of sand, water and heavy crude oil that can be refined into usable petroleum.在加拿大，能源公司是采矿，使所谓的焦油沙-混合砂，水和重质原油可以提炼成可用的石油。 But burning tar sands is about the worst thing to do if we want to avoid catastrophic climate change because the resulting petroleum has a much greater carbon footprint than conventional oil.但焚烧沥青砂是最坏的事，如果我们要避免灾难性的气候变化，因为由此产生的石油有更大的碳足迹，比常规石油。 Currently, a dozen such projects are under way; projects awaiting approval would quadruple the emissions those projects generate.目前，十几个这样的项目正在进行之中;项目等待批准将翻两番，排放这些项目产生。 One encouraging sign: in response to a lawsuit filed by Ecojustice, the top federal court in Canada has temporarily blocked a tar sands project proposed by an ExxonMobil subsidiary on climate change grounds.一个令人鼓舞的迹象：在回应诉讼ecojustice ，最高联邦法院在加拿大已暂时封锁了焦油砂项目所提出的一埃克森美孚公司的附属关于气候变化的理由。 “This is something which will clearly apply to every single oil-sands project that comes before environmental assessment of any kind,” said Sean Nixon, a lawyer for Ecojustice Canada. “这是一些显然会适用于每一个单一的油砂项目在先，环境评估任何形式的，说： ”肖恩尼克松的一名律师ecojustice加拿大。
More encouragement: some high-level government officials recognize the danger of peak oil and may be contemplating action.更多的鼓励：一些高级别政府官员认识到危险的高峰石油和可能contemplating行动。 British Foreign Secretary David Miliband wants his country to consider creating “a post-oil economy.” New York Governor David Paterson has spoken in detail about the imminence of peak oil and what government can do about it: invest in greater energy efficiency in the short term and new low-carbon energy sources in the medium to long term.英国外交大臣大卫米利希望他的国家考虑建立“后石油经济”新的纽约总督朱百德的发言，详细了解了紧迫的高峰石油和什么政府可以做的关于它：投资于提高能源效率，在短期内任期和新的低碳能源来源，在中期至长期的。 Plug-in hybrid cars, for example, can get more than 100 miles per gallon — double that of today’s generation of hybrids.外挂在混合动力汽车，举例来说，可以得到多于100英里每加仑-的两倍，今天的一代杂种。 And if the plug-in hybrids rely on electricity generated by solar, wind or other green energy sources, they fight climate change and peak oil at the same time.如果该插件在杂种依赖于所产生的电力是由太阳能，风能或其他绿色能源的来源，他们又打气候变化和石油高峰在同一时间内。
Finally, activists in scores of towns and cities around the world are trying to prepare their communities for the transition to a post-oil economy.最后，活动在分数城镇和世界各地的城市正在准备他们的社区，为过渡到后石油经济。 Rather than wait for national governments and multinational corporations to save them, these ordinary citizens are examining how their communities can produce their own energy, food, buildings and other essentials using local resources rather than materials that arrive from afar via oil-based transport.而非等待各国政府和跨国企业来营救他们，这些普通市民现正研究如何在他们的社区能产生他们自己的能源，食品，建筑和其他必需品的利用当地资源，而不是材料到达从远处通过石油为基础的交通工具。 “Economic relocalization will be one of the inevitable impacts of the end of cheap transportation fuels,” argues peak oil theorist Richard Heinberg. “经济relocalization将是一个必然的影响，年底廉价的运输燃料， ”石油高峰辩称，理论家理查德海因伯格。 In Britain this movement has taken the form of “transition towns,” which seek, in the words of organizer Rob Hopkins, “to design a conscious pathway down from the oil peak.” Drawing on the experience of his hometown of Totnes, in Devon, Hopkins has just published The Transition Handbook , which explains how other towns can also begin preparing for the post-oil future.在英国这项运动，采取的形式是“过渡城镇， ”寻求，在的话，主办单位抢霍普金斯， “设计一个自觉的途径是从石油高峰” ，借鉴的经验，他的家乡totnes ，在德宏，霍普金斯刚刚发表的过渡手册 ，说明如何其他城镇也可以开始准备后石油的未来。
Some of the transition movement’s ideas — printing local currency, forming solar buying clubs, building “cob” houses made of mud — may seem quaint, inconvenient or naïve.一些转型期运动的理念-印刷当地货币，形成了太阳能购买俱乐部，建设“芯”住房取得的泥-似乎是古朴，不便或幼稚的。 But nothing is more naïve than assuming that the endless oil that modern societies grew addicted to over the past fifty years will last forever.但没有什么更多的天真，比假设无休止的石油，现代社会的成长耽溺在过去五十年将持续永远。 The day of reckoning appears imminent, and as Hopkins says, “it is better to plan for it than be taken by surprise.”当天推算，似乎迫在眉睫，并作为霍普金斯说： “这是更好的计划，这比将要采取的意外” 。
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One Response to “We Must Imagine a Life Without Oil” 1回应： “我们必须想象一个生活无油”
Poul Andreasen 保罗安德烈亚森
Posted: Apr 30th, 2008 at 2:12 pm | 发布时间： 2008年4月30日在下午2时12分| Link to this 链接到本
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Very good abstract of current situation.很好的摘要的现状。
I am thankful that I live in Denmark, where high energy taxes - gas being US$ 9 a gallon - and substantial investments in alternative energy sources - 25% of our electricity comes from wind - makes us a little bit better off on the slope downhill from peak.我很感谢我住在丹麦，高能源税-气体的9美元一加仑-和巨额投资，在替代能源-2 5％的电力来自风力-让我们一点点较佳的对边坡下坡从山顶。 Let’s use the remaining oil wisely for the final transition away from fossil fuels.让我们使用剩余油明智，为最终过渡远离矿物燃料。