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The Shrinking Influence of the US Federal Reserve萎縮的影響，美國聯邦儲備局 Wednesday, July 2nd, 2008 週三， 2008年7月2日 Humiliation for Mr. Dollar: Ben Bernanke, the chairman of the United States Federal Reserve Bank, faces a general investigation by the International Monetary Fund.屈辱先生美元：伯南克，主席，美國聯邦儲備銀行，所面臨的一般調查的國際貨幣基金所。 Just one more example of the Fed losing its power.只是多一個例子，美聯儲失去其權力。 The United States Federal Reserve Bank, or Fed, seems as much a part of America as Coca-Cola or Pizza Hut.美國聯邦儲備銀行，或美聯儲，似乎多的一部分，美國的可口可樂或必勝客。 But at least one difference has become apparent in recent days.但至少有一個差異，已成為明顯，在最近幾天。 While the pizza chain and soft-drink maker are likely to expand their scope of influence in the age of globalization, the US central bank is finding that its power is shrinking.而披薩鏈和軟飲製造商有可能擴大其影響範圍在全球化時代，美國中央銀行的是找到它的權力正在縮小。 No Fed chief in US history has been forced to submit to the kind of humiliation that Ben Bernanke is facing.沒有行政美聯儲在美國歷史上已被迫向種羞辱貝南克面臨的。 This is partly down to circumstances.這部分是下降的情況。 Inflation is going up and up, and this year’s average will likely top 4 percent.通貨膨脹是不斷上升，和今年的平均可能會頂端4 ％ 。 But this time Mr. Dollar is also Mr. Powerless.但是這一次先生港元，也是先生無能為力的。 He can raise interest rates in the fall, or he can pray, which would probably be the better choice.他可以提高利率將在今年秋季，或者他可以祈禱，這將可能是更好的選擇。 At least prayer would not prevent the US economy from growing, a highly likely outcome if interest rates go up.至少祈禱不會阻止美國經濟增長，極有可能的結果，如果利率上升。 After years of growth, the United States is now on the brink of a recession, one that is more likely to be deepened than softened by a tight money policy.經過多年的增長，美國現在對瀕臨衰退，是一個較有可能以較軟化，加深了一個嚴密的貨幣政策。 Investments will automatically become more expensive, consumer spending will be curbed and economic growth will slow down, immediately affecting unemployment figures and wages.投資將自動成為較昂貴，消費開支將抑制和經濟增長將放緩，立即影響的失業數字和工資。 The textbook conclusion is that this will stabilize the value of money, because no one will dare demand higher wages or higher prices.教科書得出的結論是，這將穩定下來，金錢的價值，因為沒有人會不敢需求較高的工資或更高的價格。 But the macroeconomics textbooks are no longer worth much in the age of globalization.但宏觀經濟教科書不再是值得許多在全球化的時代。 Modern inflation is driven by the global scarcity of resources.現代通貨膨脹是驅動全球資源稀缺。 Nowadays purchasing power exceeds purchasing opportunity.現在的購買力超過了購買的機會。 Most of all, there is not enough oil, and too few raw materials and food products.最重要的是，有沒有足夠的油，太少了原料和糧食產品。 These increasingly scarce resources are becoming the focus of disputes among many people and billions of dollars are at stake.這些日益稀少的資源正在成為焦點之間的糾紛，許多市民和十億美元的利益。 This is why the price of a barrel of crude oil (159 liters) has increased from $25 (€16) in 2002 to $135 (€87) in 2008.這就是為什麼價格每桶原油（ 159公升）增加了從25元（ € 16 ）在2002年135元（ € 87 ）在2008年。 And it is also why the price of corn has tripled in the same time period, while that of copper has almost quintupled.這也是為什麼價格玉米增加了三倍，在同一時期內，而銅的幾乎五倍。 If the inflation introduced in the United States is excluded, a small miracle is revealed, namely something approaching price stability.如果通脹介紹，在美國被排除，一個小的奇蹟，是顯示，即一些接近價格穩定。 Adjusted for inflation, prices are in fact rising by only 2.3 percent.經通貨膨脹因素調整後的價格，其實只上升了2.3 ％ 。 If this were the extent of it, the Fed chief could simply blink like an old watchdog and go back to sleep.如果是這樣的程度，美聯儲行政可以簡單一眨眼一樣，一歲的看門狗和回去睡覺。 Instead, he is barking loudly, which is his job.相反，他是門口大聲，這是他的工作。 But he has lost his bite, because the Fed’s interest rate policy can do nothing about the scarcity of goods.但他卻失去了咬，因為美聯儲的利率政策可以做什麼稀缺商品。 Some of Bernanke’s personal adversaries are also contributing significantly to his current humiliation.一些伯南克的個人的對手也有重大貢獻，以他目前的屈辱。 In the past, the chairman of the Federal Reserve was a pope among the priests of the financial elite.在過去，聯邦儲備局主席是教宗之間的祭司金融精英。 But unlike his predecessor Alan Greenspan, Bernanke is finding that his policies are not universally accepted, even within the Fed.但不像他的前任格林斯潘，伯南克是尋找他的政策並沒有普遍接受的，即使在美聯儲。 The last seven decisions reached by the Federal Open Market Committee, which sets monetary policy, were accompanied by a growing number of dissenting votes.過去七年的決定所達成的美國聯邦公開市場委員會，其中規定了貨幣政策，伴隨著越來越多的反對票。 Bernanke’s critics say that with his policy of cheap money — in other words, recurring rate reductions — he in fact helped fuel the inflation problem he is now trying to combat.貝南克的批評者說，與他的政策，廉價的錢-換句話說，復發率減少-他在事實上助長了通脹的問題，他現正試圖打擊。 Another problem for Mr. Dollar is that it will be several months before his actions take effect.另一個問題為先生港元的是，這將數個月前，他的行動才會生效。 Officials with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have informed Bernanke about a plan that would have been unheard-of in the past: a general examination of the US financial system.官員與國際貨幣基金（ IMF ）已通知貝南克關於一項計劃，將已奇聞的，在過去：一般檢查，美國的金融體系。 The IMF’s board of directors has ruled that a so-called Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) is to be carried out in the United States.國際貨幣基金會的董事局已作出裁決，一個所謂的金融部門評估規劃（ fsap ）是進行在美國。 It is nothing less than an X-ray of the entire US financial system.它只不過是不到一個X射線的整個美國金融體系。 As part of the assessment, the Fed, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the major investment banks, mortgage banks and hedge funds will be asked to hand over confidential documents to the IMF team.作為部分的評估，美聯儲，證券及交易委員會（ SEC ） ，主要投資銀行，抵押貸款銀行和對沖基金將被要求交出機密文件，向基金組織團隊。 They will be required to answer the questions they are asked during interviews.他們將須回答問題，他們問在面試。 Their databases will be subjected to so-called stress tests — worst-case scenarios designed to simulate the broader effects of failures of other major financial institutions or a continuing decline of the dollar.其數據庫將受到那些所謂的壓力測試-最壞的情況而設計的模擬更廣泛的影響，失敗的其他主要金融機構或持續下降的走勢。 Under its bylaws, the IMF is charged with the supervision of the international monetary system.根據其章程，國際貨幣基金組織負責監督國際貨幣體系。 Roughly two-thirds of IMF members — but never the United States — have already endured this painful procedure.大約三分之二的國際貨幣基金組織的成員-但從未美國-已經經歷了這一痛苦的過程。 For seven years, US President George W. Bush refused to allow the IMF to conduct its assessment. 7年來，美國總統布什拒絕讓國際貨幣基金組織進行評估。 Even now, he has only given the IMF board his consent under one important condition.即使是現在，他只是鑑於基金組織董事會的同意下，一個重要的條件。 The review can begin in Bush’s last year in office, but it may not be completed until he has left the White House.檢討就可以開始在布什的任期的最後一年，但它可能無法完成，直到他離開了白宮。 This is bad news for the Fed chairman.這是壞消息，為美聯儲主席。 When the final report on the risks of the US financial system is released in 2010 — and it is likely to cause a stir internationally — only one of the people in positions of responsiblity today will still be in office: Ben Bernanke.當最後報告的風險，美國的金融體系是發表在2010年-這是可能會引起轟動國際-只有一個人的立場re sponsiblity今天仍會在辦公室：貝南克。 Translated from the German by Christopher Sultan翻譯從德國，由克里斯托弗文萊蘇丹 © SPIEGEL ONLINE 2008 ©周刊在線2008年 See More: 看到更多的： Money 金錢 USA News 美國新聞Have Your Say: The Shrinking Influence of the US Federal Reserve 你說：萎縮的影響，美國聯邦儲備局 Please note, only selected comments will be published.請注意，只有選定的評論將出版。 Or discuss this report in our new forums 或討論這個報告在我們的新論壇 This entry was posted on Wednesday, July 2nd, 2008 at 6:16 am and is filed under 此項目被張貼在週三， 2008年7月2日在上午06時16分，並提交下 Business News 商業新聞 . 。 You can follow any responses to this entry through the 您可以按照任何的反應，此項目通過 RSS 2.0 2.0 feed. 餵養。 You can 您可以 leave a response 留下的回應 , or ，或 trackback Trackback跟踪 from your own site. 從你自己的網站。 | Translations 翻譯               Free Newsletter 免費通訊 Related News 相關新聞
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