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The Shrinking Influence of the US Federal Reserve萎缩的影响，美国联邦储备局 Wednesday, July 2nd, 2008 周三， 2008年7月2日 Humiliation for Mr. Dollar: Ben Bernanke, the chairman of the United States Federal Reserve Bank, faces a general investigation by the International Monetary Fund.屈辱先生美元：伯南克，主席，美国联邦储备银行，所面临的一般调查的国际货币基金所。 Just one more example of the Fed losing its power.只是多一个例子，美联储失去其权力。 The United States Federal Reserve Bank, or Fed, seems as much a part of America as Coca-Cola or Pizza Hut.美国联邦储备银行，或美联储，似乎多的一部分，美国的可口可乐或必胜客。 But at least one difference has become apparent in recent days.但至少有一个差异，已成为明显，在最近几天。 While the pizza chain and soft-drink maker are likely to expand their scope of influence in the age of globalization, the US central bank is finding that its power is shrinking.而披萨链和软饮制造商有可能扩大其影响范围在全球化时代，美国中央银行的是找到它的权力正在缩小。 No Fed chief in US history has been forced to submit to the kind of humiliation that Ben Bernanke is facing.没有行政美联储在美国历史上已被迫向种羞辱贝南克面临的。 This is partly down to circumstances.这部分是下降的情况。 Inflation is going up and up, and this year’s average will likely top 4 percent.通货膨胀是不断上升，和今年的平均可能会顶端4 ％ 。 But this time Mr. Dollar is also Mr. Powerless.但是这一次先生港元，也是先生无能为力的。 He can raise interest rates in the fall, or he can pray, which would probably be the better choice.他可以提高利率将在今年秋季，或者他可以祈祷，这将可能是更好的选择。 At least prayer would not prevent the US economy from growing, a highly likely outcome if interest rates go up.至少祈祷不会阻止美国经济增长，极有可能的结果，如果利率上升。 After years of growth, the United States is now on the brink of a recession, one that is more likely to be deepened than softened by a tight money policy.经过多年的增长，美国现在对濒临衰退，是一个较有可能以较软化，加深了一个严密的货币政策。 Investments will automatically become more expensive, consumer spending will be curbed and economic growth will slow down, immediately affecting unemployment figures and wages.投资将自动成为较昂贵，消费开支将抑制和经济增长将放缓，立即影响的失业数字和工资。 The textbook conclusion is that this will stabilize the value of money, because no one will dare demand higher wages or higher prices.教科书得出的结论是，这将稳定下来，金钱的价值，因为没有人会不敢需求较高的工资或更高的价格。 But the macroeconomics textbooks are no longer worth much in the age of globalization.但宏观经济教科书不再是值得许多在全球化的时代。 Modern inflation is driven by the global scarcity of resources.现代通货膨胀是驱动全球资源稀缺。 Nowadays purchasing power exceeds purchasing opportunity.现在的购买力超过了购买的机会。 Most of all, there is not enough oil, and too few raw materials and food products.最重要的是，有没有足够的油，太少了原料和粮食产品。 These increasingly scarce resources are becoming the focus of disputes among many people and billions of dollars are at stake.这些日益稀少的资源正在成为焦点之间的纠纷，许多市民和十亿美元的利益。 This is why the price of a barrel of crude oil (159 liters) has increased from $25 (€16) in 2002 to $135 (€87) in 2008.这就是为什么价格每桶原油（ 159公升）增加了从25元（ € 16 ）在2002年135元（ € 87 ）在2008年。 And it is also why the price of corn has tripled in the same time period, while that of copper has almost quintupled.这也是为什么价格玉米增加了三倍，在同一时期内，而铜的几乎五倍。 If the inflation introduced in the United States is excluded, a small miracle is revealed, namely something approaching price stability.如果通胀介绍，在美国被排除，一个小的奇迹，是显示，即一些接近价格稳定。 Adjusted for inflation, prices are in fact rising by only 2.3 percent.经通货膨胀因素调整后的价格，其实只上升了2.3 ％ 。 If this were the extent of it, the Fed chief could simply blink like an old watchdog and go back to sleep.如果是这样的程度，美联储行政可以简单一眨眼一样，一岁的看门狗和回去睡觉。 Instead, he is barking loudly, which is his job.相反，他是门口大声，这是他的工作。 But he has lost his bite, because the Fed’s interest rate policy can do nothing about the scarcity of goods.但他却失去了咬，因为美联储的利率政策可以做什么稀缺商品。 Some of Bernanke’s personal adversaries are also contributing significantly to his current humiliation.一些伯南克的个人的对手也有重大贡献，以他目前的屈辱。 In the past, the chairman of the Federal Reserve was a pope among the priests of the financial elite.在过去，联邦储备局主席是教宗之间的祭司金融精英。 But unlike his predecessor Alan Greenspan, Bernanke is finding that his policies are not universally accepted, even within the Fed.但不像他的前任格林斯潘，伯南克是寻找他的政策并没有普遍接受的，即使在美联储。 The last seven decisions reached by the Federal Open Market Committee, which sets monetary policy, were accompanied by a growing number of dissenting votes.过去七年的决定所达成的美国联邦公开市场委员会，其中规定了货币政策，伴随着越来越多的反对票。 Bernanke’s critics say that with his policy of cheap money — in other words, recurring rate reductions — he in fact helped fuel the inflation problem he is now trying to combat.贝南克的批评者说，与他的政策，廉价的钱-换句话说，复发率减少-他在事实上助长了通胀的问题，他现正试图打击。 Another problem for Mr. Dollar is that it will be several months before his actions take effect.另一个问题为先生港元的是，这将数个月前，他的行动才会生效。 Officials with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have informed Bernanke about a plan that would have been unheard-of in the past: a general examination of the US financial system.官员与国际货币基金（ IMF ）已通知贝南克关于一项计划，将已奇闻的，在过去：一般检查，美国的金融体系。 The IMF’s board of directors has ruled that a so-called Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) is to be carried out in the United States.国际货币基金会的董事局已作出裁决，一个所谓的金融部门评估规划（ fsap ）是进行在美国。 It is nothing less than an X-ray of the entire US financial system.它只不过是不到一个X射线的整个美国金融体系。 As part of the assessment, the Fed, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the major investment banks, mortgage banks and hedge funds will be asked to hand over confidential documents to the IMF team.作为部分的评估，美联储，证券及交易委员会（ SEC ） ，主要投资银行，抵押贷款银行和对冲基金将被要求交出机密文件，向基金组织团队。 They will be required to answer the questions they are asked during interviews.他们将须回答问题，他们问在面试。 Their databases will be subjected to so-called stress tests — worst-case scenarios designed to simulate the broader effects of failures of other major financial institutions or a continuing decline of the dollar.它们的数据库将受到那些所谓的压力测试-最坏的情况而设计的模拟更广泛的影响，失败的其他主要金融机构或持续下降的走势。 Under its bylaws, the IMF is charged with the supervision of the international monetary system.根据其章程，国际货币基金组织负责监督国际货币体系。 Roughly two-thirds of IMF members — but never the United States — have already endured this painful procedure.大约三分之二的国际货币基金组织的成员-但从未美国-已经经历了这一痛苦的过程。 For seven years, US President George W. Bush refused to allow the IMF to conduct its assessment. 7年来，美国总统布什拒绝让国际货币基金组织进行评估。 Even now, he has only given the IMF board his consent under one important condition.即使是现在，他只是鉴于基金组织董事会的同意下，一个重要的条件。 The review can begin in Bush’s last year in office, but it may not be completed until he has left the White House.检讨就可以开始在布什的任期的最后一年，但它可能无法完成，直到他离开了白宫。 This is bad news for the Fed chairman.这是坏消息，为美联储主席。 When the final report on the risks of the US financial system is released in 2010 — and it is likely to cause a stir internationally — only one of the people in positions of responsiblity today will still be in office: Ben Bernanke.当最后报告的风险，美国的金融体系是发表在2010年-这是可能会引起轰动国际-只有一个人的立场re sponsiblity今天仍会在办公室：贝南克。 Translated from the German by Christopher Sultan翻译从德国，由克里斯托弗文莱苏丹 © SPIEGEL ONLINE 2008 ©周刊在线2008年 See More: 看到更多的： Money 金钱 USA News 美国新闻Have Your Say: The Shrinking Influence of the US Federal Reserve 你说：萎缩的影响，美国联邦储备局 Please note, only selected comments will be published.请注意，只有选定的评论将出版。 Or discuss this report in our new forums 或讨论这个报告在我们的新论坛 This entry was posted on Wednesday, July 2nd, 2008 at 6:16 am and is filed under 此项目被张贴在周三， 2008年7月2日在上午06时16分，并提交下 Business News 商业新闻 . 。 You can follow any responses to this entry through the 您可以按照任何的反应，此项目通过 RSS 2.0 2.0 feed. 喂养。 You can 您可以 leave a response 留下的回应 , or ，或 trackback Trackback跟踪 from your own site. 从你自己的网站。 | Translations 翻译               Free Newsletter 免费通讯 Related News 相关新闻
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