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Monday, June 9th, 2008 週一， 2008年6月9日

By Stephen Lendman -由Stephen lendman - RINF rinf | Walter “John” Williams thinks out of the box. |沃爾特“約翰”威廉斯認為，出於對方塊。 He makes disquieting reading, but you won’t find him in the mainstream.他使令人不安的讀，但你不會找到他在主流。 At least not often.至少不是經常。 He runs a “Shadow Government Statistics” site with an electronic by-subscription newsletter.他違背了“影子政府統計”網站與電子所認購的時事通訊。 Anyone can access some of his data and occasional special reports.任何人都可以訪問他的一些數據和不定期的特別報告。 They can also assess his reasoning.他們也可以評估他的推理。 In his judgment, government data are manipulated, corrupted and unreliable.在他的判斷，政府的數據操縱，損壞和不可靠的。 He’s not alone thinking that.他的思想並不孤單。 First, through technical changes over time in how data are collected and/or interpreted.第一，通過技術的變化，隨著時間的推移，在如何收集的數據和/或解釋。 The intent is to portray a more rosy scenario and ignore real world experiences of ordinary people.其意圖是塑造一個更加美好的情景而忽略現實世界的經驗，普通百姓。 Calculating the CPI is an example:計算消費物價指數是一個例子：

– in the 1980s, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) switched from using house prices to their rental equivalent; -在2 0世紀8 0年代，勞工統計局（ B LS）的合資公司轉為使用的房價，以他們的租金同等學歷;

– then a decade ago, BLS made a spurious assumption for reasons other than it stated; it was that consumers substitute cheaper products for ones that have risen in price - such as hamburger for steak or chicken for meat; the idea wasn’t to reflect their buying habits; it was to artificially lower inflation and distort its calculation; and -然後在十多年前， b ls作出了虛假的假設以外的原因，它說明，這是消費者以更便宜的產品，為那些有上升，價格-如漢堡包為牛排或雞肉肉;構想是不以反映他們的購買習慣，這是人為地降低通貨膨脹和歪曲其計算;

– BLS has long adjusted prices for quality improvements; it’s called “hedonic adjustment” that, in fact, cooks the books; so if computer speed increases, its cost is lowered proportionally even if its price rises; the same is true for autos with better brakes or other assorted innovations; again the result is distortion, and it affects all sorts of products; as a result, inflation is artificially and fraudulently lowered. -b ls已久的價格調整，質量提高;它的所謂“快感調整” ，事實上，廚師的書籍;所以，如果電腦的速度增加，其成本是降低的比例，即使其價格上漲;也是一樣，汽車與更好的剎車或其他各類創新;再次，結果是失真，並影響到各種產品;作為一個結果，通貨膨脹是人為和騙取降低。

Another example is how federal deficits are calculated.另一個例子是，如何聯邦赤字的計算。 Beginning with Nixon in 1969, a “unified budget” was adopted to artificially lower them by offsetting expenditures with “off-budget” Social Security revenues.開始與尼克松在1969年，一個“統一的財政預算案”獲得通過人為地降低他們的支出抵銷了與“非預算”的社會保障收入。 The idea was to hide government’s true cost at a time wartime and Great Society spending was high and would later factor into the 1970s and 1980s inflation.其想法是隱藏政府的真正成本在戰時的時間和偉大的社會支出高，並會稍後的因素，到1970年代和1980年代的通貨膨脹。 If deficits were calculated then and now by GAAP methodology (required of all publicly-traded corporations), they’d be much higher than annually reported - since the 1970s, in multiple trillions of dollars; fiscal alchemy sweeps them under the rug.如果赤字計算了當時和現在所公認會計原則的方法（要求所有公開上市交易公司） ，他們要遠高於每年報告-自七十年代以來，在多個萬億美元;財政煉金術席捲下地毯。

A further example was Nixon’s “core inflation” idea.另一個例子是尼克松的“核心通脹”的構想。 More artificial rigging - to exclude volatile food and energy prices to produce a lower figure.更多的人工造-排除波動較大的食品和能源價格產生一個較低的數字。 No matter that these items account for a large portion of consumer spending, especially for lower income households.不管這些項目佔了很大一部分消費，尤其是對低收入家庭。

Others like this are numerous.其他人一樣，這是多方面的。 They all amount to manipulative rigging for political or financial market purposes, and the practice goes back decades.他們所有的金額操控市場操縱為政治或金融市場的目的，和實踐可以追溯到幾十年。 A recent Bush administration one is switching to monthly instead of semi-annual jobs data seasonal adjustments to make the number friendlier.最近，布什政府，一個是切換到每月，而是半年度就業數據的季節性調整，使人數友善。 Later on (too late for markets to react) they’re matched against payroll figures for a once a year adjustment and more accurate jobs created or lost reading.在稍後（太遲，市場反應） ，他們正在比對薪金的數字為每年一次的調整和更準確的創造的就業機會，或失去了讀。

The Clinton administration was also manipulative.克林頓政府還操控。 In calculating employment, it lowered its monthly household sample from 60,000 to 50,000, reducing it mainly in inner cities.在計算就業，降低其家庭每月的樣本從60000到50000 ，減少它主要是在內蒙古的城市。 The effect is to artificially lower jobless numbers among blacks, Latinos and the poor overall.效果是人為地降低失業人數，其中黑人，拉美裔和窮人的整體。 The calculation is also rigged by keeping out the 2.3 million prison population.計算亦是造保持了2300000監獄人口。 The overall effect is illusion, not reality - to erase “free market” capitalism’s defects and make it look wondrous and beneficial to mankind.整體效果是幻想，而不是現實-抹掉“自由市場”資本主義的缺陷，使其研究和創造有利於人類。

Williams reverse-engineers the GDP, employment and inflation data for more accurate readings.威廉斯逆向工程師的本地生產總值，就業和通脹數據，以便更準確地讀。 He backs out manipulative changes to produce more valid figures.他背出操控的變化，產生更多有效的數字。 Take the 5.5% May unemployment rate for example.以5.5 ％ ，五月的失業率為例子。 BLS calculates it on persons who looked for work in the last 30 days. bls計算，它的人，誰找的工作在過去的30天。 Williams adds those who want to work but gave up in frustration plus people working part-time who want (but can’t find) full-time jobs.威廉斯加入那些誰不想工作，而是放棄了在挫折加上工作的人，部分時間制誰不想（但無法找到）的全職工作。 Result: real unemployment of over 12%.結果：真正的失業率超過百分之十二。

The same methodology works for economic growth.同樣的方法，為工程的經濟增長。 The real value of all goods and services produced is lower than official GDP numbers when adjusted for higher inflation.的實際價值，所有生產的商品和服務是低於官方GDP數字時，調整為更高的通貨膨脹。 More of it means higher prices, not increased output.以上這意味著更高的價格，而不是增加產量。 It’s how Williams makes his calculation, and he’s worried.它的如何威廉斯使他的計算，他的擔心。 He sees inflation rising and a threat of hyperinflation ahead.他認為通貨膨脹上升的威脅和惡性通貨膨脹的未來。 He highlighted his concern in a recent April 2008 report called “Hyperinflation Special Report” with three dramatic sub-headings:他強調，他的關注，在最近的2008年4月報告中所謂的“惡性通貨膨脹的特別報告”三個戲劇性的分標題：

– “Inflationary Recession Is in Place; -“通貨膨脹的經濟衰退是在地方;

– Banking Solvency Crisis Has Opened First Phase Monetary Inflation;” and -銀行業的償付能力危機已開放第一階段的貨幣通貨膨脹; “

– “Hyperinflationary Depression Remains Likely As Early as 2010.” -“重抑鬱症仍然可能早在2 010年” 。

Time alone will prove him right or wrong.時間將證明，單是他對或錯。 But given current economic conditions, the financial malpractice that precipitated them, continued mismanagement since then, and resultant dangers they created, it pays to examine his analysis.但鑑於目前的經濟狀況，財政的弊端，他們認為，沉澱，繼續管理不善，自那時以來，和由此產生的危險，他們製作的，它自付研究他的分析。 It’s not for the faint-hearted and hopefully won’t bear out.這不是為微弱的心，並希望能在不忍心。 But it’s happened before at other times in other countries, and when it hits it ruins lives and savings.但它的發生之前，在其他時間在其他國家，當它訪問它的廢墟生活和儲蓄。 Is America now headed for that type future?現在是美國為首的該類型的未來呢？ Williams thinks so, and here’s his argument.威廉斯認為，所以，這裡的他的論點。

He sees the US economy in an “intensifying inflationary recession” heading for “a hyperinflationary great depression.” He expects it as soon as 2010, maybe sooner, and “likely” no later than in a decade.他認為，美國經濟在一“加強對通脹的衰退”的標題為“重經濟大蕭條” ，他預計它盡快到2010年，也許遲早，並“可能”在不晚於10年。 Blame it on reckless monetary and fiscal policy - creating torrents of money, borrowing outsized amounts, and spending ourselves into bankruptcy by supporting short-term “big-monied special interests.”歸咎於這對魯莽的貨幣和財政政策-創造急流的金錢，借款o utsized金額，和消費自己破產，通過支持短期“大m onied的特殊利益” 。

Things are so out of hand, Williams sees “no way of avoiding a financial Armageddon.” We’re nearly or already bankrupt; are creating money to cover our obligations; the more we print, the more we need; it’s fiat currency unbacked by gold; and every new dollar created dilutes the value of all others in circulation.事情是出於另一方面，威廉斯認為， “沒有辦法避免金融災難。 ： ”我們正在接近或已經破產;創造金錢，以支付我們的義務;越是打印，越需要;它的菲亞特貨幣unbacked由金;和每一個新創建的削弱美元的價值，其他所有在市面流通。 Double the money supply, and presto - every dollar is worth 50 cents.雙重貨幣供應量，並presto -每美元是值得的5 0美分。 Double it again, and you get the point.雙再次，你會得到一點。 We’ve been doing it for decades, especially since Nixon closed the gold window in 1971.我們已經這樣做了幾十年以來，特別是尼克松關閉黃金窗口，在1971年。

At some point, the music stops, the dollar collapses, it becomes worthless paper, and related dollar-demoninated paper assets go down with it.在一些點，音樂停止，美元崩潰，變成毫無價值的文件，和相關的美元資產demoninated文件去打倒它。 Williams quotes a law professor who experienced Weimar Germany’s hyperinflation first hand.威廉斯行情法律系教授誰經驗豐富的德國魏瑪的惡性通貨膨脹的第一手資料。 It was the worst by far ever recorded.這是最壞遠遠以往任何時候都記錄下來。 “It was horrible. “這是可怕的。 Horrible!可怕！ Like lightening it struck.想減輕它擊中。 No one was prepared.” Shelves in grocery stores emptied.沒有人願意“的貨架上，在雜貨店掏空。 “You could buy nothing with your paper money.” At the trough in 1923, the mark plunged to an astonishing 4,200,000,000,000 to the dollar. “你可以購買任何與您的紙錢。 ”在谷底，在1923年，馬克下跌到了驚人的42000.00億到美元。

Can it happen here?它可以發生在這裡出現？ It might, and rising world inflation is worrisome.它可能和通貨膨脹上升的世界是令人擔憂。 Analyst Bob Chapman’s International Forecaster reports current US inflation at 12.5%; China’s 8.5%; Russia’s 14%; Gulf oil producers on average 12%; India 8%; Indonesia 12%; Brazil 5%; Chile 8.3%; Venezuela 29.3% and Argentina 23%.分析師Bob查普曼的國際預測報告，美國目前的通貨膨脹率在12.5 ％ ，中國的8.5 ％ ，俄羅斯的14 ％ ;海灣石油生產國，平均12 ％ ;印度8 ％ ;印度尼西亞的12 ％ ;巴西5 ％ ;智利8.3 ％ ; 29.3 ％ ，委內瑞拉和阿根廷的23 ％ 。 This likely plays into the European Central Bank’s (ECB) reluctance to cut rates and the Bank of England’s holding off on further ones.這可能發揮到，歐洲中央銀行（歐洲央行）不願削減利率和英倫銀行的控股小康，就進一步。 It’s also a factor affecting dollar weakness and rising gold prices that hedge against depreciating currencies and geopolitical uncertainties.這也是一個影響因素，美元疲軟和黃金價格上升，對沖對貨幣貶值和地緣政治不確定性。

Williams is justifiably concerned as inflationary pressures build.威廉斯是有理由關注的通脹壓力建設。 First some definitions.第一部分定義。 Inflation results from a money supply increase that causes prices to rise.通貨膨脹的結果，從貨幣供應量增加導致價格上漲。 Williams refers only to goods and services, not financial assets like stocks and bonds.威廉姆斯只是指商品和服務，而不是金融資產，例如股票和債券。 He also leaves out speculation and market manipulation that’s key to understanding high oil and food prices.他還遺漏了投機和市場操縱的關鍵，以了解高油價和食品價格。 Markets don’t move randomly.市場不動議，隨機。 Big-monied speculators move them, but that’sa separate topic from what Williams addresses.大monied炒家動議，但that'sa單獨的話題從什麼威廉斯地址。

He mentions various types of hyperinflation.他提到，不同類型的惡性通貨膨脹。 They range from the double or triple-digit kind, several-fold that level, to what happened in Weimar Germany when it went to infinity.他們範圍從雙重或三位數的一種，幾個倍的水平，所發生的事情在德國魏瑪的時候到無窮遠。 Once the genie is unleashed, there’s no telling how bad things may get.一旦精靈是發動，就沒有告訴有多糟糕的東西，可能得到。 Williams sees them getting pretty bad.威廉斯認為，他們得到非常糟糕的。 So much so that dollars get dumped, holders flee to safety, and a downward spiral intensifies with no idea of a bottom.以致美元拋棄，持有人逃往安全，以及螺旋式下降，激化與不知道的一個由下而上的。

In his view and others, the culprit is fiat currency, without gold backing.在他看來和其他人，罪魁禍首是菲亞特的貨幣，沒有黃金的支持。 Its worth depends solely on the full faith and credit of the issuing government.它的價值完全取決於對充分的信心和信貸的發行政府。 Absent that and currencies crash.缺席，以及貨幣崩潰。 Print too much of it, and that’s its future.打印太多的它，那就是它的未來。 Examine Fed policy under Greenspan and Bernanke, and draw your own conclusions.研究美聯儲的政策下，格林斯潘和貝南克，並提請你自己的結論。

They’ve been virtual money-creation machines unmindful of the history they should know.他們一直在虛擬的錢創造的機器不顧歷史，他們應該知道。 By issuing too much of a good thing for too many years, they fueled asset bubbles.通過發行太多的一件好事太多年，他們刺激資產泡沫。 When they burst, they made things worse and may now have headed the economy for collapse.當他們爆裂，他們所作的事情惡化，並可能現在有為首的經濟崩潰。 In Williams judgment, America today is no different from other nations in other eras that followed similar policies.在威廉斯的判決，美國今天是沒有什麼不同，從其他國家在其他的時代後，類似的政策。 They all met the same fate, and today this country has already “obligated itself to liabilities well beyond its ability ever to pay off.” Not a cheery assessment, and he’s not alone believing it.他們都達到了同樣的命運，今天這個國家已經“有義務本身的負債大大超出其能力以往任何時候都還清。 ”不是一個愉快的評估，和他的並不孤單，相信它。

More definitions:更多的定義：

– Deflation - a decrease in goods and services prices, generally from a money supply contraction; -通縮-減少了在商品和服務價格，一般從貨幣供應量收縮;

– Inflation - the reverse of the above; -通貨膨脹-扭轉上述;

– Hyperinflation - extreme inflation, as explained above, to a level where money becomes worthless or nearly so; according to Williams, the coming hyperinflation is because of a “lack of monetary discipline formerly imposed….by the gold standard, and a (Fed) dedicated to preventing a collapse in the money supply (and preventing) the implosion of the (ongoing) extremely over-leveraged domestic financial system;” -惡性通貨膨脹-極端的通貨膨脹，正如以上所解釋的，到一個水平，成為一文不值的錢或接近;據威廉斯，未來惡性通貨膨脹，是因為“缺乏貨幣紀律以前所施加的… … 。由黃金標準，和（美聯儲）專用，以防止崩潰，在貨幣供應量（和預防）內爆的（未定）極過度槓桿國內金融體系“ ;

– Recession - officially defined as two or more consecutive (inflation-adjusted) GDP contracting quarters; many economists don’t agree on this, and some gauge conditions by the relative strength or weakness of industrial production, payroll employment, retail sales, and so forth; add it up and clearly the US is in recession; how bad and for how long will only be known in time; -衰退-正式定義為兩個或兩個以上的連續（通貨膨脹調整後）國內生產總值的訂約宿舍;許多經濟學家不同意關於這點，和一些衡量條件的相對強弱的工業生產，就業人口，零售銷售，等提出;它添加了，顯然，美國是在經濟衰退;如何壞多久才會被稱為在時間;

– Depression - a recession “where (inflation-adjusted) peak-to-trough contraction exceeds 10%; and a -抑鬱症-衰退“在哪裡（通貨膨脹調整後）的高峰到谷底，收縮超過10 ％;和

– Great depression - one where the peak-to-trough exceeds 25%. -經濟大蕭條-一凡的高峰到谷底，超過25 ％。 It happened only once so far in US history in the 1930s.它發生的事情只有一次，到目前為止，在美國歷史上在20世紀30年代。

Williams believes the current US contraction is about halfway to becoming a “depression,” but before it ends it may become “Great Depression II” to distinguish it from the earlier one.威廉斯認為，美國目前的收縮是約一半，成為“抑鬱症” ，但之前結束，它可能成為“大蕭條”二區分它從較早前的1 。 We’re now in an “inflationary recession,” and available data confirm it - soaring food and oil prices, a weakened dollar, true unemployment over 12%, real inflation nearly as high, weak industrial production, and more.我們現在在一個“通脹衰退， ”和現有數據證實-飆升糧食和石油價格上漲，削弱了美元，真正的失業率超過1 2％ ，真正的通脹幾乎一樣高，薄弱的工業生產，和更多。 In his judgment, expect worse ahead when added “inflationary effects of soaring broad money growth….start” surfacing later in the year.在他的判斷，預期更糟的未來時說： “通脹上升的影響，廣義貨幣增長… … 。開始”浮出水面在今年稍後時間。 In his judgment, by year-end 2008, “official CPI” figures should begin showing it.在他的判斷，今年年底到2008年， “官方對消費物價指數”的數字，應該開始顯示它。

Current computations cook the books, and not just for inflation.目前計算庫克的書籍，而不是只為通貨膨脹。 According to Williams, the economy has been in recession since late 2006 when it entered the “second down-leg” of a multiple dip contraction.據威廉斯，經濟一直處於衰退狀態，因為在2006年年底，當它進入“第二次下跌腿”一個多浸收縮。 It began in 1999, then showed up officially in 2001.它始於1999年，然後正式表明了在2001年。 His current outlook takes account of “further bounces and dips in economic activity.” We may now be in an upward swing before reheading down.他目前的前景顧及“ ，進一步加強退回和傾角在經濟活動中， ”我們現在可能在向上擺動前reheading下來。 It happened during the Great Depression, only to fall to new lows.這期間發生的大蕭條，只有下滑至新低點。

Conditions today are hazardous.今天的條件是有危險的。 A major financial crisis precipitated them.一項重大的金融危機沉澱。 Reckless policies caused it.不顧後果的政策所造成的。 It threatens the solvency of major banks and other financial institutions.它威脅的償債能力的主要銀行和其他金融機構。 It also hurts the greater economy.它也傷害了更大的經濟。 Solutions - massive liquidity injections, interest rate cuts and reckless deficit spending.解決方案-大量流動資金的注資，減息及魯莽的赤字開支。 Result - financial malpractice for a short-term fix.結果-財務違規行為，為在短期內修復。 Consequences - “financial Armageddon” according to Williams.後果-“金融災難”據威廉姆斯。

M3 (the broadest money supply measure) growth is so high that the Fed no longer reports it.立方米（最廣泛的貨幣供應量的措施）的增長是如此之高，美聯儲不再報告。 Economists like Williams do because it’s crucial to know, and the data he reveals are disturbing - record M3 growth at a near 18% annual pace.經濟學家一樣，威廉姆斯這樣做，因為它的重要的是要知道，和數據，他揭示了令人感到不安-記錄立方米增長近1 8％ ，每年的步伐。 Hyperinflationary seeds are now sown.重種子，現種植。 Dollar valuation is falling, and at some point may accelerate when investors flee it for safer havens.美元估值下降，和在一些點可能加快投資者逃離時，它為安全的避風港。 The Fed again will respond.美聯儲再次將作出回應。 More debt will be monetized.更多債務，將貨幣化。 It will build over time.它將建成超過時間。 Things will get worse and then be exacerbated when the government is less able to meet its obligations.事情會更糟，然後進一步惡化時，政府是不太能夠履行其義務。 “Therein lies the ultimate basis for the pending hyperinflation,” in Williams’ judgment. “這就是最終的基礎上，為懸而未決的惡性通貨膨脹， ”在威廉姆斯的判斷。

He believes it will morph into a hyperinflationary depression, then a “great depression.” And when it hits, it will be with “surprising speed.” Already disposable income is falling in a weakened economy in crisis.他認為，將變身成為一個重抑鬱症，那麼一個“大蕭條”時，安打，這將是“令人驚訝的速度。 ”已可支配收入下降，削弱經濟的危機。 As things worsen, politicians get blamed, and Williams raises an interesting possibility.由於事情惡化，政治家獲得指責，和威廉姆斯提出了一個有趣的可能性。 If conditions get bad enough, voters may respond with their feet, declare a pox on both major parties, and turn to a third alternative around 2010 or 2012.如果條件得到夠糟糕，選民的回應可能會與他們的腳，宣布痘對兩個主要當事方，並把向第三方的替代左右， 2010年或2012年。 It happened before in our history.它發生之前，在我們的歷史。 The Republican Party is Exhibit A. It was created in 1854 at a time Democrats and Whigs were the two dominant parties.共和黨黨是展覽答：這是創建於1854年在一個時間民主黨人和whigs被兩個主要當事方。 Exit Whigs, and enter Republicans with Abraham Lincoln its first elected president in 1860.退出whigs ，並輸入共和黨與美國總統林肯的第一次當選總統，於1860年。

Williams shows US inflation data going back to 1665.威廉斯顯示美國通脹數據回到1665年。 It was fairly stable up to the Fed’s 1913 creation.這是相當穩定，直至美聯儲的1913年創造。 It then began rising and accelerated post-WW II.它隨後開始上升，並加速後的第二次世界大戰。 Government calculations mask it.政府計算的面具。 Alternative ones are more revealing and accurate.另類的是更多的揭示和準確的。 Except for minor price declines in 1944 and 1955, the US hasn’t had a deflationary period since the 1930s.除了輕微的價格下降，在1944年和1955年，美國一直沒有通貨緊縮時期以來， 20世紀30年代。 Abandoning the gold standard is why.放棄金本位是為什麼。 It imposed monetary discipline.它施加的金融紀律。 Roosevelt went off it in 1933.羅斯福到小康，它在1933年。 He had to.他不得不。 The banking system collapsed, money supply imploded, and economic stimulus was needed.銀行體系的崩潰，貨幣供應量imploded ，和刺激經濟是必要的。 It released the Fed to create money freely.它公佈的美聯儲創造金錢自由。 Therein lies the problem, and it shows up in the numbers.這就是問題，它表明了在數字。

Current Fed Chairman Bernanke and Alan Greenspan are students of the Great Depression.目前美聯儲主席伯南克和格林斯潘是學生的大蕭條。 “Helicopter Ben” especially vowed never again, and his actions prove it to a fault. “直升機本” ，特別是發誓，從此再也不和他的行動證明它的故障。 He knows the risks and stated them in an earlier speech.他知道風險，並說明他們在早些時候的講話。 He said:他說：

“Like gold, US dollars have value only to the extent that they are strictly limited in supply. “像黃金，美元價值只有在以下範圍內，他們是嚴格限制的供應。 But the US government has a technology called a printing press (now its electronic equivalent), that allows it to produce as many US dollars as it wishes.” By doing so, it “reduce(s) the value of a dollar in terms of goods and services” which raises their prices….”under a paper-money system, a determined government can always generate higher spending and hence positive inflation.”但美國政府有一個所謂的技術印刷（現在其電子當量） ，即允許它生產多少產品美元，因為它的意願。 “這樣做，但”減少（ ）的價值1美元的條款商品和服務“ ，提高他們的價格… … ”下了一份文件，清制度，一個有決心的政府隨時可以創造更高的開支，因此，積極的通貨膨脹“ 。

So it has, according to Williams, and it caused a “slow-motion destruction of the US dollar’s purchasing power” since 1933.因此，它已根據威廉斯，並引起了“慢的議案，銷毀的美元的購買力”自1933年。 It shows up in GAAP-based 2007 federal deficit figures - $4 trillion for the fiscal year, not the official $163 fiction reported.它表明，在公認會計原則為基礎的2007年聯邦赤字的數字-4萬億美元，為財政年度，而不是官方一六三美元小說的報告。 Williams estimates total outstanding federal obligations at $62.6 trillion.威廉斯估計，佔未償還聯邦債務六十二萬六千點零億美元。 At least one other economist puts it over $80 trillion.至少有一個其他經濟學家的說法超過八○○○○○○○○○○○○○美元。 There’s no way to honor this debt level, so the “government effectively is bankrupt.” At that point, it has three choices - default, declare a moratorium, or repudiate the entire amount.有沒有辦法，這榮譽的債務水平，因此， “政府實際上是破產。 ”在這一點上，它有三個選擇-默認情況下，宣布暫停，或推翻整個的金額。

Sooner or later, markets will react.遲早的事，市場將作出反應。 Holders of US debt already are balking, but so far modestly and quietly.持有美國債券已經有不願，但到目前為止，虛心和悄然。 Ahead, that may change if dollar valuations plunge.未來，有可能變更，如果港元的估價大跌。 It will force the Fed’s hand.這將迫使美聯儲的手。 Greater debt monetization will follow.更大的債務貨幣也會跟進。 Dollar valuations will sink further, and so forth in a progressive downward cycle to oblivion if Williams is right.美元估值將進一步下沉，等等，在一個漸進的下降週期，以遺忘，如果威廉斯是正確的。

If conditions get severe enough, the Fed can create huge amounts of currency in a few days or weeks - enough to match the dollar’s lost purchasing power in the last 75 years.如果條件得到更嚴重的話，美聯儲可以創造大量的貨幣在幾天或幾週-足夠，以配合美元的失去了購買力，在過去的7 5年。 Combine it with fiscal irresponsibility and imagine the consequences.相結合，與財政不負責任的和想像的後果。

Official data alone today are reason for concern - soaring food and oil prices, the dollar near historic lows, money growth at an all-time high, and off-the-charts federal deficits and debt.官方數據，僅今天是有理由感到關切-飆升糧食和石油價格，美元匯率接近歷史低點，貨幣增長在所有的時間高，場外-圖表聯邦赤字和債務。 The trend continues, and it shows up in gold prices - topping $1000, then retreating, but nearly certain to soar way above previous highs on its way to numbers not discussed in the mainstream - $2000 an ounce, $3000?這種趨勢繼續下去，它表明了在黃金價格-突破1 000美元，然後撤退，但幾乎一定會飆升，大大高於前高點就其方式為數字並沒有討論的主流- 20 00美元一盎司，3 0 00美元？ Who knows.誰知道。 Williams sees it “setting new historic highs.”威廉斯認為這是“設置新的歷史最高水平” 。

In 1980, its price hit $850 an ounce.在1980年，其價格達到850美元一盎司。 In CPI inflation-adjusted terms, around $2300 an ounce would match it today.在消費物價指數通貨膨脹調整後的條款，周圍二千三百美元1盎司，將配合今天。 But if the government hadn’t cooked the CPI calculation, the number would be about $6250 an ounce.但如果政府沒有煮熟的甲類消費物價指數計算，人數將約為六千二百五十〇美元一盎司。 By that standard, gold today is cheap.由該標準，黃金今天是便宜。 It’s way below its real 1980 top, and if inflation accelerates as Williams predicts, expect much higher prices as dollars keep deflating.它遠遠低於其真正的1980頂部，如果通貨膨脹加速，作為威廉姆斯預測，預期高得多的價格，因為美元保持平減。

Under this scenario, the “US government cannot cover (its) existing obligations.” Annual federal deficits are “careening wildly out of control, averaging $4.6 trillion per year for the six years through 2007.” That’s with all unfunded liabilities included like Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, other social services, debt service and more.根據這種情況下， “美國政府不能掩蓋（ ITS ）的現有義務。 ”年度聯邦赤字是“ careening瘋狂失去控制，平均四萬六千點零零零億美元每年為六年到2007年， ”這是與所有無資金準備的負債，包括像社會保障，醫療，醫療保險，其他社會服務，債務的服務和更多。

Williams says things are so out of control that “if the government (raised taxes) to seize 100% of all wages, salaries and corporate profits, it still would (show) an annual deficit using GAAP accounting” methods.威廉姆斯說，事情是如此失去控制， “如果政府（提出的稅）抓住100 ％的所有工資，薪金及企業獲利的，它仍然會（查看） ，每年的赤字使用公認會計原則核算”的方法。 At the same time, “given current revenues, if it stopped (all) spending (including defense and homeland security) other than Social Security and Medicare obligations, the government still would (show) an annual deficit.” The hole is so deep, it’s impossible to dig out, according to Williams.在同一時間內， “鑑於目前的收入，如果它停止（所有）的開支（包括國防和國土安全部）以外的其他社會保障和醫療保險的義務，政府仍然會（查看） ，每年的赤字。 ”洞是如此之深，它是不可能的挖掘出來，據威廉斯。

But given political realities, officials spend whatever it takes to get elected and keep their jobs.但由於政治的現實，官員花不惜一切能夠當選，並保持其工作。 That’s besides foreign wars, limitless corporate subsidies and more.這是除了外國的戰爭，無限公司的補貼和更多。 Things, however, won’t improve.事情，不過，將不會改善。 They’ll worsen, and that for Williams spells hyperinflation ahead.他們將進一步惡化，並為威廉姆斯闡述了惡性通貨膨脹的未來。 It’s happening “with the full knowledge of political Washington and the Federal Reserve.” It it weren’t for the US’s “special position,” our debt would likely be rated “below investment grade instead of triple-A.” Longer term bonds are especially risky.它的發生“與充分的認識，政治華盛頓和美國聯邦儲備委員會” ，它不是為我們的“特殊地位” ，我們的債務可能會被評為“低於投資級別，而非三A ” 。長遠而言，發行的債券，尤其是風險。 At some point, they’ll lose their full value.在一些點，他們就會失去他們的全部價值。 They also risk default, and that’s besides their loss in dollar terms.他們的風險也默認情況下，這除了他們的損失以美元計算。

It’s just a matter of time before foreign investors get worried enough to act - buying fewer Treasuries down to none, then followed by redemptions.這只是一個時間的問題之前，外國投資者的擔心得到足夠的法-購買較少的國庫券下跌對零票，隨後贖回。 The Fed will have to compensate.美聯儲將有補償。 Print more currency, and the problem deepens.打印更多的貨幣，和問題，深化了。 Its value declines and inflation accelerates.它的價值下降和通貨膨脹加速。

Trade policies worsen things.貿易政策惡化的事情。 We’re in a global race to the bottom.我們正處在一個全球性的競賽底部。 The once bedrock manufacturing base eroded.曾經是製造業基地的基石受到侵蝕。 It’s now 10% of the economy and falling.它的現在， 10 ％的經濟和下降。 Services currently account for around 84% of it and rising.服務目前佔大約84 ％的資訊科技及不斷上升。 Jobs in all categories are being offshored to low-wage countries.工作在所有類別目前正在境外，以低工資國家。 Average inflation-adjusted wages keep declining.平均通貨膨脹調整後的工資不斷下降。 Real earnings are below their early 1970s peak.實際收入是低於其1970年代初的高峰。 Living standards are falling.生活水準正在下降。 Consumer debt is rising to make up the shortfall.消費者債務上升，以此來彌補缺額。 Savings are liquidated.節省下來的清算。 Before the housing decline, mortgage refinancing helped when valuations rose.前房屋下降，抵押貸款再融資幫助時，估值上升。 It meant taking on more debt.這意味著採取更多的債務。 Fed policy encouraged it.聯儲政策鼓勵它。 Today’s dilemma “is payback” for unsustainable bubble-creation policies.今天的困境“是回饋”不可持續的泡沫創造的政策。 Recalling a relevant quote: “Things that can’t go on forever won’t.”回顧有關引述： “事情不能永遠繼續下去會不會” 。

Bad policy caused enormous structural change, and trade deficits are part of it.壞的政策，造成了巨大的結構性變化，和貿易赤字是它的一部分。 They’ve “risen to the highest level for any country in history.” They’re one more problem for a seriously over-extended economy.他們已經“上升到最高水平，任何國家在歷史上， ”他們是其中之一，更多的問題，嚴重的過度擴展的經濟體系。 It places “the federal government and Federal Reserve in untenable positions, where they cannot easily or rapidly address the underlying problems, even if standard economic stimuli were available.”它的地方“聯邦政府和聯邦儲備委員會在站不住腳的立場，在那裡他們不能輕易或迅速解決潛在的問題，即使標準刺激經濟提供” 。

Given the federal deficit and out-of-control spending, fiscal policy limits have been reached.鑑於聯邦赤字和失控的控制支出，財政政策的限制，已達成的。 The Fed’s in the same bind.美聯儲在相同的約束。 It can neither stimulate the economy or contain inflation.它可以既不刺激經濟或抑制通膨。 Rate cuts have done little.減息，做了一點。 Saving the dollar may require raising them, but that won’t “contain non-demand driven inflation.” It shows up in high food, energy, health care, and companies like Dow Chemical announcing on May 28 that it will raise prices across the board up to 20% to offset increased costs.儲蓄美元可能需要提高他們，但不會“包含非由需求驅動的通貨膨脹。 ”這顯示了在高的食物，能源，保健，和公司一樣，道氏化學公司宣布， 5月28日，它將提高價格，全國董事會高達20 ％ ，以抵消增加的成本。

More cause for worry, and Williams anticipates depression.更令人憂慮，和威廉姆斯預計抑鬱症。 Hyperinflation will follow, and it will sink “the economy into a great depression.” It will halt commercial activity.惡性通貨膨脹會跟進，這將擊沉“經濟陷入大蕭條”將停止商業活動。 The greater disparity in income, the more negative its consequences.更大的收入差距，更多的負面後果。 “Extremes in income variance usually are followed by financial panics and economic depressions. “極端的收入差異，通常是其次是金融恐慌和經濟窪地。 US income variance today is higher” than in 1929 and “nearly double that of any other ‘advanced’ economy.”美國的收入差異今天是較高的“比在1929年和”增加近一倍，即任何其他先進經濟“ 。

Federal bailouts have worsened things.聯邦bailouts惡化的事情。 Dollar creation exploded.美元創造爆炸。 Crisis has been pushed into the future.危機已被推到未來。 Its enormity will be far greater, and foreign investors will get stuck with a lot of it.其艱鉅性將遠遠更大，外國投資者會碰到困難了很多。 When it arrives in strength, capital outflow will follow, and dollar valuation will plunge with it.當它抵達的實力，資本流出會跟進，和美元的估值將投身與它。 Williams believes that “both central bank and major private investors know that the dollar is going to be a losing proposition.威廉斯認為， “雙方的中央銀行和私人投資者的主要知道，美元將是一個失去的主張。 They either expect and/or hope that they can get of (it) in time to lock in their profits (or for central bankers) that they can forestall the ultimate global economic crisis” as long as possible.他們或者期望和/或希望他們能得到的（它）在時間鎖定在他們的利潤（或為中央銀行行長）表示，他們可以預先最終的全球經濟危機“盡可能長時間。

Dollars are very vulnerable in this environment.美元是非常脆弱的在這樣的環境中。 If Treasuries are dumped, the Fed will monetize debt to make up the difference.如果國債是傾倒，美聯儲將賺錢的債務，以補足差額。 Inflation will then accelerate, multi-trillion dollar deficits will worsen things, and a “self-feeding cycle of currency debasement and hyperinflation” will follow.通脹就會加快，多萬億美元的赤字將惡化的東西， “自我餵養週期的貨幣debasement和惡性通貨膨脹”也會跟進。

Cash as we know it will disappear.現金，因為我們知道它將會消失。 A barter system and black market will replace it or possible introduction of a new currency. 1易貨制度和黑市將取代它，或可能引入新的貨幣。 Since most money today is electronic, not physical, chances of it adapting “are practically nil.” With hyperinflation, electronic commerce would completely shut down and economic collapse would follow.由於大部分的錢，今天是電子，而不是身體，它的機會，適應“幾乎為零。 ”惡性通貨膨脹，電子商業將完全關閉和經濟崩潰會跟隨。 Gold and silver will be invaluable.黃金和白銀，將寶貴的。 Holders could exchange them for goods and services.持有人可以交流，他們對商品和服務。

Physical goods will also be precious for survival and as a medium of exchange.實物商品也將寶貴的生存和作為交易媒介。 Anything with a long shelf life may be stocked in advance, and providers of essential services could barter them for goods and other services.任何具有悠久的貨架壽命可能會儲存在前進，並提供必要的服務可以易貨他們的商品和其他服務。 Forewarned is forearmed.預先是forearmed 。 Safety and liquidity are crucial.安全性和流動性是很重要的。 Anything retaining value is essential.什麼保留的價值是至關重要的。 Real estate, other currencies for example.房地產，其他貨幣例如。 Foreign equities and debt to a small degree because US financial assets hammering will spill everywhere.外國股票和債務的一小程度上是因為美國金融資產的衝擊將波及無處不在。

With all that to deal with, consider another dilemma - the likelihood of painful political change, civil unrest, disruptive violence, and utter chaos.與所有的處理，考慮的另一個困境-的可能性痛苦的政治變化，內亂，破壞性的暴力，和完全的混亂。 If Williams is right and hyperinflation arrives, Katie bar the door on what may follow.如果威廉斯是正確的和惡性通貨膨脹的來臨之際，凱蒂酒吧的大門，就什麼可能跟進。 Revolutions are possible with three notable last century ones to consider - in Russia, Weimer Germany and Nationalist China.革命是可能的三個顯著與上個世紀的考慮-在俄羅斯， w eimer德國和中國的民族主義。 In each case, the old order ended, everything changed, but not for the good.在每種情況下，舊秩序的結束，一切都變了，但並非為好。 How does Williams advise?如何威廉姆斯提供意見？ Evaluate one’s own circumstances, use common sense, and forewarned is forearmed.評價一個自己的情況下，使用普通常識，並預先是forearmed 。 That will help, but hard times hurt everyone.這將幫助，但艱難的時刻傷害了大家。

Hopefully they won’t arrive, at least not full-blown as Williams predicts.希望他們不會抵達，至少不是充分吹作為威廉姆斯預測。 But make no mistake.但不要搞錯。 Excess has a price.過剩已付出代價。 The more of it the greater.越多，它的更大。 America has an ocean of it.美國的海洋。 Sooner or later comes payback.遲早的事來回報。 “Things that can’t go on forever won’t.” “事情不能永遠繼續下去會不會” 。

See More: 看到更多的： Stephen Lendman 斯蒂芬lendman

Have Your Say: Potential Future Hyperinflation 你說：未來的潛在惡性通貨膨脹
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