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Monday, June 9th, 2008 周一， 2008年6月9日

By Stephen Lendman -由Stephen lendman - RINF rinf | Walter “John” Williams thinks out of the box. |沃尔特“约翰”威廉斯认为，出于对方块。 He makes disquieting reading, but you won’t find him in the mainstream.他使令人不安的读，但你不会找到他在主流。 At least not often.至少不是经常。 He runs a “Shadow Government Statistics” site with an electronic by-subscription newsletter.他违背了“影子政府统计”网站与电子所认购的时事通讯。 Anyone can access some of his data and occasional special reports.任何人都可以访问他的一些数据和不定期的特别报告。 They can also assess his reasoning.他们也可以评估他的推理。 In his judgment, government data are manipulated, corrupted and unreliable.在他的判断，政府的数据操纵，损坏和不可靠的。 He’s not alone thinking that.他的思想并不孤单。 First, through technical changes over time in how data are collected and/or interpreted.第一，通过技术的变化，随着时间的推移，在如何收集的数据和/或解释。 The intent is to portray a more rosy scenario and ignore real world experiences of ordinary people.其意图是塑造一个更加美好的情景而忽略现实世界的经验，普通百姓。 Calculating the CPI is an example:计算消费物价指数是一个例子：

– in the 1980s, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) switched from using house prices to their rental equivalent; -在2 0世纪8 0年代，劳工统计局（ B LS）的合资公司转为使用的房价，以他们的租金同等学历;

– then a decade ago, BLS made a spurious assumption for reasons other than it stated; it was that consumers substitute cheaper products for ones that have risen in price - such as hamburger for steak or chicken for meat; the idea wasn’t to reflect their buying habits; it was to artificially lower inflation and distort its calculation; and -然后在十多年前， b ls作出了虚假的假设以外的原因，它说明，这是消费者以更便宜的产品，为那些有上升，价格-如汉堡包为牛排或鸡肉肉;构想是不以反映他们的购买习惯，这是人为地降低通货膨胀和歪曲其计算;

– BLS has long adjusted prices for quality improvements; it’s called “hedonic adjustment” that, in fact, cooks the books; so if computer speed increases, its cost is lowered proportionally even if its price rises; the same is true for autos with better brakes or other assorted innovations; again the result is distortion, and it affects all sorts of products; as a result, inflation is artificially and fraudulently lowered. -b ls已久的价格调整，质量提高;它的所谓“快感调整” ，事实上，厨师的书籍;所以，如果电脑的速度增加，其成本是降低的比例，即使其价格上涨;也是一样，汽车与更好的刹车或其他各类创新;再次，结果是失真，并影响到各种产品;作为一个结果，通货膨胀是人为和骗取降低。

Another example is how federal deficits are calculated.另一个例子是，如何联邦赤字的计算。 Beginning with Nixon in 1969, a “unified budget” was adopted to artificially lower them by offsetting expenditures with “off-budget” Social Security revenues.开始与尼克松在1969年，一个“统一的财政预算案”获得通过人为地降低他们的支出抵销了与“非预算”的社会保障收入。 The idea was to hide government’s true cost at a time wartime and Great Society spending was high and would later factor into the 1970s and 1980s inflation.其想法是隐藏政府的真正成本在战时的时间和伟大的社会支出高，并会稍后的因素，到1970年代和1980年代的通货膨胀。 If deficits were calculated then and now by GAAP methodology (required of all publicly-traded corporations), they’d be much higher than annually reported - since the 1970s, in multiple trillions of dollars; fiscal alchemy sweeps them under the rug.如果赤字计算了当时和现在所公认会计原则的方法（要求所有公开上市交易公司） ，他们要远高于每年报告-自七十年代以来，在多个万亿美元;财政炼金术席卷下地毯。

A further example was Nixon’s “core inflation” idea.另一个例子是尼克松的“核心通胀”的构想。 More artificial rigging - to exclude volatile food and energy prices to produce a lower figure.更多的人工造-排除波动较大的食品和能源价格产生一个较低的数字。 No matter that these items account for a large portion of consumer spending, especially for lower income households.不管这些项目占了很大一部分消费，尤其是对低收入家庭。

Others like this are numerous.其他人一样，这是多方面的。 They all amount to manipulative rigging for political or financial market purposes, and the practice goes back decades.他们所有的金额操控市场操纵为政治或金融市场的目的，和实践可以追溯到几十年。 A recent Bush administration one is switching to monthly instead of semi-annual jobs data seasonal adjustments to make the number friendlier.最近，布什政府，一个是切换到每月，而是半年度就业数据的季节性调整，使人数友善。 Later on (too late for markets to react) they’re matched against payroll figures for a once a year adjustment and more accurate jobs created or lost reading.在稍后（太迟，市场反应） ，他们正在比对薪金的数字为每年一次的调整和更准确的创造的就业机会，或失去了读。

The Clinton administration was also manipulative.克林顿政府还操控。 In calculating employment, it lowered its monthly household sample from 60,000 to 50,000, reducing it mainly in inner cities.在计算就业，降低其家庭每月的样本从60000到50000 ，减少它主要是在内蒙古的城市。 The effect is to artificially lower jobless numbers among blacks, Latinos and the poor overall.效果是人为地降低失业人数，其中黑人，拉美裔和穷人的整体。 The calculation is also rigged by keeping out the 2.3 million prison population.计算亦是造保持了2300000监狱人口。 The overall effect is illusion, not reality - to erase “free market” capitalism’s defects and make it look wondrous and beneficial to mankind.整体效果是幻想，而不是现实-抹掉“自由市场”资本主义的缺陷，使其研究和创造有利于人类。

Williams reverse-engineers the GDP, employment and inflation data for more accurate readings.威廉斯逆向工程师的本地生产总值，就业和通胀数据，以便更准确地读。 He backs out manipulative changes to produce more valid figures.他背出操控的变化，产生更多有效的数字。 Take the 5.5% May unemployment rate for example.以5.5 ％ ，五月的失业率为例子。 BLS calculates it on persons who looked for work in the last 30 days. bls计算，它的人，谁找的工作在过去的30天。 Williams adds those who want to work but gave up in frustration plus people working part-time who want (but can’t find) full-time jobs.威廉斯加入那些谁不想工作，而是放弃了在挫折加上工作的人，部分时间制谁不想（但无法找到）的全职工作。 Result: real unemployment of over 12%.结果：真正的失业率超过百分之十二。

The same methodology works for economic growth.同样的方法，为工程的经济增长。 The real value of all goods and services produced is lower than official GDP numbers when adjusted for higher inflation.的实际价值，所有生产的商品和服务是低于官方GDP数字时，调整为更高的通货膨胀。 More of it means higher prices, not increased output.以上这意味着更高的价格，而不是增加产量。 It’s how Williams makes his calculation, and he’s worried.它的如何威廉斯使他的计算，他的担心。 He sees inflation rising and a threat of hyperinflation ahead.他认为通货膨胀上升的威胁和恶性通货膨胀的未来。 He highlighted his concern in a recent April 2008 report called “Hyperinflation Special Report” with three dramatic sub-headings:他强调，他的关注，在最近的2008年4月报告中所谓的“恶性通货膨胀的特别报告”三个戏剧性的分标题：

– “Inflationary Recession Is in Place; -“通货膨胀的经济衰退是在地方;

– Banking Solvency Crisis Has Opened First Phase Monetary Inflation;” and -银行业的偿付能力危机已开放第一阶段的货币通货膨胀; “

– “Hyperinflationary Depression Remains Likely As Early as 2010.” -“重抑郁症仍然可能早在2 010年” 。

Time alone will prove him right or wrong.时间将证明，单是他对或错。 But given current economic conditions, the financial malpractice that precipitated them, continued mismanagement since then, and resultant dangers they created, it pays to examine his analysis.但鉴于目前的经济状况，财政的弊端，他们认为，沉淀，继续管理不善，自那时以来，和由此产生的危险，他们制作的，它自付研究他的分析。 It’s not for the faint-hearted and hopefully won’t bear out.这不是为微弱的心，并希望能在不忍心。 But it’s happened before at other times in other countries, and when it hits it ruins lives and savings.但它的发生之前，在其他时间在其他国家，当它访问它的废墟生活和储蓄。 Is America now headed for that type future?现在是美国为首的该类型的未来呢？ Williams thinks so, and here’s his argument.威廉斯认为，所以，这里的他的论点。

He sees the US economy in an “intensifying inflationary recession” heading for “a hyperinflationary great depression.” He expects it as soon as 2010, maybe sooner, and “likely” no later than in a decade.他认为，美国经济在一“加强对通胀的衰退”的标题为“重经济大萧条” ，他预计它尽快到2010年，也许迟早，并“可能”在不晚于10年。 Blame it on reckless monetary and fiscal policy - creating torrents of money, borrowing outsized amounts, and spending ourselves into bankruptcy by supporting short-term “big-monied special interests.”归咎于这对鲁莽的货币和财政政策-创造急流的金钱，借款o utsized金额，和消费自己破产，通过支持短期“大m onied的特殊利益” 。

Things are so out of hand, Williams sees “no way of avoiding a financial Armageddon.” We’re nearly or already bankrupt; are creating money to cover our obligations; the more we print, the more we need; it’s fiat currency unbacked by gold; and every new dollar created dilutes the value of all others in circulation.事情是出于另一方面，威廉斯认为， “没有办法避免金融灾难。 ： ”我们正在接近或已经破产;创造金钱，以支付我们的义务;越是打印，越需要;它的菲亚特货币unbacked由金;和每一个新创建的削弱美元的价值，其他所有在市面流通。 Double the money supply, and presto - every dollar is worth 50 cents.双重货币供应量，并presto -每美元是值得的5 0美分。 Double it again, and you get the point.双再次，你会得到一点。 We’ve been doing it for decades, especially since Nixon closed the gold window in 1971.我们已经这样做了几十年以来，特别是尼克松关闭黄金窗口，在1971年。

At some point, the music stops, the dollar collapses, it becomes worthless paper, and related dollar-demoninated paper assets go down with it.在一些点，音乐停止，美元崩溃，变成毫无价值的文件，和相关的美元资产demoninated文件去打倒它。 Williams quotes a law professor who experienced Weimar Germany’s hyperinflation first hand.威廉斯行情法律系教授谁经验丰富的德国魏玛的恶性通货膨胀的第一手资料。 It was the worst by far ever recorded.这是最坏远远以往任何时候都记录下来。 “It was horrible. “这是可怕的。 Horrible!可怕！ Like lightening it struck.想减轻它击中。 No one was prepared.” Shelves in grocery stores emptied.没有人愿意“的货架上，在杂货店掏空。 “You could buy nothing with your paper money.” At the trough in 1923, the mark plunged to an astonishing 4,200,000,000,000 to the dollar. “你可以购买任何与您的纸钱。 ”在谷底，在1923年，马克下跌到了惊人的42000.00亿到美元。

Can it happen here?它可以发生在这里出现？ It might, and rising world inflation is worrisome.它可能和通货膨胀上升的世界是令人担忧。 Analyst Bob Chapman’s International Forecaster reports current US inflation at 12.5%; China’s 8.5%; Russia’s 14%; Gulf oil producers on average 12%; India 8%; Indonesia 12%; Brazil 5%; Chile 8.3%; Venezuela 29.3% and Argentina 23%.分析师Bob查普曼的国际预测报告，美国目前的通货膨胀率在12.5 ％ ，中国的8.5 ％ ，俄罗斯的14 ％ ;海湾石油生产国，平均12 ％ ;印度8 ％ ;印度尼西亚的12 ％ ;巴西5 ％ ;智利8.3 ％ ; 29.3 ％ ，委内瑞拉和阿根廷的23 ％ 。 This likely plays into the European Central Bank’s (ECB) reluctance to cut rates and the Bank of England’s holding off on further ones.这可能发挥到，欧洲中央银行（欧洲央行）不愿削减利率和英伦银行的控股小康，就进一步。 It’s also a factor affecting dollar weakness and rising gold prices that hedge against depreciating currencies and geopolitical uncertainties.这也是一个影响因素，美元疲软和黄金价格上升，对冲对货币贬值和地缘政治不确定性。

Williams is justifiably concerned as inflationary pressures build.威廉斯是有理由关注的通胀压力建设。 First some definitions.第一部分定义。 Inflation results from a money supply increase that causes prices to rise.通货膨胀的结果，从货币供应量增加导致价格上涨。 Williams refers only to goods and services, not financial assets like stocks and bonds.威廉姆斯只是指商品和服务，而不是金融资产，例如股票和债券。 He also leaves out speculation and market manipulation that’s key to understanding high oil and food prices.他还遗漏了投机和市场操纵的关键，以了解高油价和食品价格。 Markets don’t move randomly.市场不动议，随机。 Big-monied speculators move them, but that’sa separate topic from what Williams addresses.大monied炒家动议，但that'sa单独的话题从什么威廉斯地址。

He mentions various types of hyperinflation.他提到，不同类型的恶性通货膨胀。 They range from the double or triple-digit kind, several-fold that level, to what happened in Weimar Germany when it went to infinity.他们范围从双重或三位数的一种，几个倍的水平，所发生的事情在德国魏玛的时候到无穷远。 Once the genie is unleashed, there’s no telling how bad things may get.一旦精灵是发动，就没有告诉有多糟糕的东西，可能得到。 Williams sees them getting pretty bad.威廉斯认为，他们得到非常糟糕的。 So much so that dollars get dumped, holders flee to safety, and a downward spiral intensifies with no idea of a bottom.以致美元抛弃，持有人逃往安全，以及螺旋式下降，激化与不知道的一个由下而上的。

In his view and others, the culprit is fiat currency, without gold backing.在他看来和其他人，罪魁祸首是菲亚特的货币，没有黄金的支持。 Its worth depends solely on the full faith and credit of the issuing government.它的价值完全取决于对充分的信心和信贷的发行政府。 Absent that and currencies crash.缺席，以及货币崩溃。 Print too much of it, and that’s its future.打印太多的它，那就是它的未来。 Examine Fed policy under Greenspan and Bernanke, and draw your own conclusions.研究美联储的政策下，格林斯潘和贝南克，并提请你自己的结论。

They’ve been virtual money-creation machines unmindful of the history they should know.他们一直在虚拟的钱创造的机器不顾历史，他们应该知道。 By issuing too much of a good thing for too many years, they fueled asset bubbles.通过发行太多的一件好事太多年，他们刺激资产泡沫。 When they burst, they made things worse and may now have headed the economy for collapse.当他们爆裂，他们所作的事情恶化，并可能现在有为首的经济崩溃。 In Williams judgment, America today is no different from other nations in other eras that followed similar policies.在威廉斯的判决，美国今天是没有什么不同，从其他国家在其他的时代后，类似的政策。 They all met the same fate, and today this country has already “obligated itself to liabilities well beyond its ability ever to pay off.” Not a cheery assessment, and he’s not alone believing it.他们都达到了同样的命运，今天这个国家已经“有义务本身的负债大大超出其能力以往任何时候都还清。 ”不是一个愉快的评估，和他的并不孤单，相信它。

More definitions:更多的定义：

– Deflation - a decrease in goods and services prices, generally from a money supply contraction; -通缩-减少了在商品和服务价格，一般从货币供应量收缩;

– Inflation - the reverse of the above; -通货膨胀-扭转上述;

– Hyperinflation - extreme inflation, as explained above, to a level where money becomes worthless or nearly so; according to Williams, the coming hyperinflation is because of a “lack of monetary discipline formerly imposed….by the gold standard, and a (Fed) dedicated to preventing a collapse in the money supply (and preventing) the implosion of the (ongoing) extremely over-leveraged domestic financial system;” -恶性通货膨胀-极端的通货膨胀，正如以上所解释的，到一个水平，成为一文不值的钱或接近;据威廉斯，未来恶性通货膨胀，是因为“缺乏货币纪律以前所施加的… … 。由黄金标准，和（美联储）专用，以防止崩溃，在货币供应量（和预防）内爆的（未定）极过度杠杆国内金融体系“ ;

– Recession - officially defined as two or more consecutive (inflation-adjusted) GDP contracting quarters; many economists don’t agree on this, and some gauge conditions by the relative strength or weakness of industrial production, payroll employment, retail sales, and so forth; add it up and clearly the US is in recession; how bad and for how long will only be known in time; -衰退-正式定义为两个或两个以上的连续（通货膨胀调整后）国内生产总值的订约宿舍;许多经济学家不同意关于这点，和一些衡量条件的相对强弱的工业生产，就业人口，零售销售，等提出;它添加了，显然，美国是在经济衰退;如何坏多久才会被称为在时间;

– Depression - a recession “where (inflation-adjusted) peak-to-trough contraction exceeds 10%; and a -抑郁症-衰退“在哪里（通货膨胀调整后）的高峰到谷底，收缩超过10 ％;和

– Great depression - one where the peak-to-trough exceeds 25%. -经济大萧条-一凡的高峰到谷底，超过25 ％。 It happened only once so far in US history in the 1930s.它发生的事情只有一次，到目前为止，在美国历史上在20世纪30年代。

Williams believes the current US contraction is about halfway to becoming a “depression,” but before it ends it may become “Great Depression II” to distinguish it from the earlier one.威廉斯认为，美国目前的收缩是约一半，成为“抑郁症” ，但之前结束，它可能成为“大萧条”二区分它从较早前的1 。 We’re now in an “inflationary recession,” and available data confirm it - soaring food and oil prices, a weakened dollar, true unemployment over 12%, real inflation nearly as high, weak industrial production, and more.我们现在在一个“通胀衰退， ”和现有数据证实-飙升粮食和石油价格上涨，削弱了美元，真正的失业率超过1 2％ ，真正的通胀几乎一样高，薄弱的工业生产，和更多。 In his judgment, expect worse ahead when added “inflationary effects of soaring broad money growth….start” surfacing later in the year.在他的判断，预期更糟的未来时说： “通胀上升的影响，广义货币增长… … 。开始”浮出水面在今年稍后时间。 In his judgment, by year-end 2008, “official CPI” figures should begin showing it.在他的判断，今年年底到2008年， “官方对消费物价指数”的数字，应该开始显示它。

Current computations cook the books, and not just for inflation.目前计算库克的书籍，而不是只为通货膨胀。 According to Williams, the economy has been in recession since late 2006 when it entered the “second down-leg” of a multiple dip contraction.据威廉斯，经济一直处于衰退状态，因为在2006年年底，当它进入“第二次下跌腿”一个多浸收缩。 It began in 1999, then showed up officially in 2001.它始于1999年，然后正式表明了在2001年。 His current outlook takes account of “further bounces and dips in economic activity.” We may now be in an upward swing before reheading down.他目前的前景顾及“ ，进一步加强退回和倾角在经济活动中， ”我们现在可能在向上摆动前reheading下来。 It happened during the Great Depression, only to fall to new lows.这期间发生的大萧条，只有下滑至新低点。

Conditions today are hazardous.今天的条件是有危险的。 A major financial crisis precipitated them.一项重大的金融危机沉淀。 Reckless policies caused it.不顾后果的政策所造成的。 It threatens the solvency of major banks and other financial institutions.它威胁的偿债能力的主要银行和其他金融机构。 It also hurts the greater economy.它也伤害了更大的经济。 Solutions - massive liquidity injections, interest rate cuts and reckless deficit spending.解决方案-大量流动资金的注资，减息及鲁莽的赤字开支。 Result - financial malpractice for a short-term fix.结果-财务违规行为，为在短期内修复。 Consequences - “financial Armageddon” according to Williams.后果-“金融灾难”据威廉姆斯。

M3 (the broadest money supply measure) growth is so high that the Fed no longer reports it.立方米（最广泛的货币供应量的措施）的增长是如此之高，美联储不再报告。 Economists like Williams do because it’s crucial to know, and the data he reveals are disturbing - record M3 growth at a near 18% annual pace.经济学家一样，威廉姆斯这样做，因为它的重要的是要知道，和数据，他揭示了令人感到不安-记录立方米增长近1 8％ ，每年的步伐。 Hyperinflationary seeds are now sown.重种子，现种植。 Dollar valuation is falling, and at some point may accelerate when investors flee it for safer havens.美元估值下降，和在一些点可能加快投资者逃离时，它为安全的避风港。 The Fed again will respond.美联储再次将作出回应。 More debt will be monetized.更多债务，将货币化。 It will build over time.它将建成超过时间。 Things will get worse and then be exacerbated when the government is less able to meet its obligations.事情会更糟，然后进一步恶化时，政府是不太能够履行其义务。 “Therein lies the ultimate basis for the pending hyperinflation,” in Williams’ judgment. “这就是最终的基础上，为悬而未决的恶性通货膨胀， ”在威廉姆斯的判断。

He believes it will morph into a hyperinflationary depression, then a “great depression.” And when it hits, it will be with “surprising speed.” Already disposable income is falling in a weakened economy in crisis.他认为，将变身成为一个重抑郁症，那么一个“大萧条”时，安打，这将是“令人惊讶的速度。 ”已可支配收入下降，削弱经济的危机。 As things worsen, politicians get blamed, and Williams raises an interesting possibility.由于事情恶化，政治家获得指责，和威廉姆斯提出了一个有趣的可能性。 If conditions get bad enough, voters may respond with their feet, declare a pox on both major parties, and turn to a third alternative around 2010 or 2012.如果条件得到够糟糕，选民的回应可能会与他们的脚，宣布痘对两个主要当事方，并把向第三方的替代左右， 2010年或2012年。 It happened before in our history.它发生之前，在我们的历史。 The Republican Party is Exhibit A. It was created in 1854 at a time Democrats and Whigs were the two dominant parties.共和党党是展览答：这是创建于1854年在一个时间民主党人和whigs被两个主要当事方。 Exit Whigs, and enter Republicans with Abraham Lincoln its first elected president in 1860.退出whigs ，并输入共和党与美国总统林肯的第一次当选总统，于1860年。

Williams shows US inflation data going back to 1665.威廉斯显示美国通胀数据回到1665年。 It was fairly stable up to the Fed’s 1913 creation.这是相当稳定，直至美联储的1913年创造。 It then began rising and accelerated post-WW II.它随后开始上升，并加速后的第二次世界大战。 Government calculations mask it.政府计算的面具。 Alternative ones are more revealing and accurate.另类的是更多的揭示和准确的。 Except for minor price declines in 1944 and 1955, the US hasn’t had a deflationary period since the 1930s.除了轻微的价格下降，在1944年和1955年，美国一直没有通货紧缩时期以来， 20世纪30年代。 Abandoning the gold standard is why.放弃金本位是为什么。 It imposed monetary discipline.它施加的金融纪律。 Roosevelt went off it in 1933.罗斯福到小康，它在1933年。 He had to.他不得不。 The banking system collapsed, money supply imploded, and economic stimulus was needed.银行体系的崩溃，货币供应量imploded ，和刺激经济是必要的。 It released the Fed to create money freely.它公布的美联储创造金钱自由。 Therein lies the problem, and it shows up in the numbers.这就是问题，它表明了在数字。

Current Fed Chairman Bernanke and Alan Greenspan are students of the Great Depression.目前美联储主席伯南克和格林斯潘是学生的大萧条。 “Helicopter Ben” especially vowed never again, and his actions prove it to a fault. “直升机本” ，特别是发誓，从此再也不和他的行动证明它的故障。 He knows the risks and stated them in an earlier speech.他知道风险，并说明他们在早些时候的讲话。 He said:他说：

“Like gold, US dollars have value only to the extent that they are strictly limited in supply. “像黄金，美元价值只有在以下范围内，他们是严格限制的供应。 But the US government has a technology called a printing press (now its electronic equivalent), that allows it to produce as many US dollars as it wishes.” By doing so, it “reduce(s) the value of a dollar in terms of goods and services” which raises their prices….”under a paper-money system, a determined government can always generate higher spending and hence positive inflation.”但美国政府有一个所谓的技术印刷（现在其电子当量） ，即允许它生产多少产品美元，因为它的意愿。 “这样做，但”减少（ ）的价值1美元的条款商品和服务“ ，提高他们的价格… … ”下了一份文件，清制度，一个有决心的政府随时可以创造更高的开支，因此，积极的通货膨胀“ 。

So it has, according to Williams, and it caused a “slow-motion destruction of the US dollar’s purchasing power” since 1933.因此，它已根据威廉斯，并引起了“慢的议案，销毁的美元的购买力”自1933年。 It shows up in GAAP-based 2007 federal deficit figures - $4 trillion for the fiscal year, not the official $163 fiction reported.它表明，在公认会计原则为基础的2007年联邦赤字的数字-4万亿美元，为财政年度，而不是官方一六三美元小说的报告。 Williams estimates total outstanding federal obligations at $62.6 trillion.威廉斯估计，占未偿还联邦债务六十二万六千点零亿美元。 At least one other economist puts it over $80 trillion.至少有一个其他经济学家的说法超过八○○○○○○○○○○○○○美元。 There’s no way to honor this debt level, so the “government effectively is bankrupt.” At that point, it has three choices - default, declare a moratorium, or repudiate the entire amount.有没有办法，这荣誉的债务水平，因此， “政府实际上是破产。 ”在这一点上，它有三个选择-默认情况下，宣布暂停，或推翻整个的金额。

Sooner or later, markets will react.迟早的事，市场将作出反应。 Holders of US debt already are balking, but so far modestly and quietly.持有美国债券已经有不愿，但到目前为止，虚心和悄然。 Ahead, that may change if dollar valuations plunge.未来，有可能变更，如果港元的估价大跌。 It will force the Fed’s hand.这将迫使美联储的手。 Greater debt monetization will follow.更大的债务货币也会跟进。 Dollar valuations will sink further, and so forth in a progressive downward cycle to oblivion if Williams is right.美元估值将进一步下沉，等等，在一个渐进的下降周期，以遗忘，如果威廉斯是正确的。

If conditions get severe enough, the Fed can create huge amounts of currency in a few days or weeks - enough to match the dollar’s lost purchasing power in the last 75 years.如果条件得到更严重的话，美联储可以创造大量的货币在几天或几周-足够，以配合美元的失去了购买力，在过去的7 5年。 Combine it with fiscal irresponsibility and imagine the consequences.相结合，与财政不负责任的和想象的后果。

Official data alone today are reason for concern - soaring food and oil prices, the dollar near historic lows, money growth at an all-time high, and off-the-charts federal deficits and debt.官方数据，仅今天是有理由感到关切-飙升粮食和石油价格，美元汇率接近历史低点，货币增长在所有的时间高，场外-图表联邦赤字和债务。 The trend continues, and it shows up in gold prices - topping $1000, then retreating, but nearly certain to soar way above previous highs on its way to numbers not discussed in the mainstream - $2000 an ounce, $3000?这种趋势继续下去，它表明了在黄金价格-突破1 000美元，然后撤退，但几乎一定会飙升，大大高于前高点就其方式为数字并没有讨论的主流- 20 00美元一盎司，3 0 00美元？ Who knows.谁知道。 Williams sees it “setting new historic highs.”威廉斯认为这是“设置新的历史最高水平” 。

In 1980, its price hit $850 an ounce.在1980年，其价格达到850美元一盎司。 In CPI inflation-adjusted terms, around $2300 an ounce would match it today.在消费物价指数通货膨胀调整后的条款，周围二千三百美元1盎司，将配合今天。 But if the government hadn’t cooked the CPI calculation, the number would be about $6250 an ounce.但如果政府没有煮熟的甲类消费物价指数计算，人数将约为六千二百五十〇美元一盎司。 By that standard, gold today is cheap.由该标准，黄金今天是便宜。 It’s way below its real 1980 top, and if inflation accelerates as Williams predicts, expect much higher prices as dollars keep deflating.它远远低于其真正的1980顶部，如果通货膨胀加速，作为威廉姆斯预测，预期高得多的价格，因为美元保持平减。

Under this scenario, the “US government cannot cover (its) existing obligations.” Annual federal deficits are “careening wildly out of control, averaging $4.6 trillion per year for the six years through 2007.” That’s with all unfunded liabilities included like Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, other social services, debt service and more.根据这种情况下， “美国政府不能掩盖（ ITS ）的现有义务。 ”年度联邦赤字是“ careening疯狂失去控制，平均四万六千点零零零亿美元每年为六年到2007年， ”这是与所有无资金准备的负债，包括像社会保障，医疗，医疗保险，其他社会服务，债务的服务和更多。

Williams says things are so out of control that “if the government (raised taxes) to seize 100% of all wages, salaries and corporate profits, it still would (show) an annual deficit using GAAP accounting” methods.威廉姆斯说，事情是如此失去控制， “如果政府（提出的税）抓住100 ％的所有工资，薪金及企业获利的，它仍然会（查看） ，每年的赤字使用公认会计原则核算”的方法。 At the same time, “given current revenues, if it stopped (all) spending (including defense and homeland security) other than Social Security and Medicare obligations, the government still would (show) an annual deficit.” The hole is so deep, it’s impossible to dig out, according to Williams.在同一时间内， “鉴于目前的收入，如果它停止（所有）的开支（包括国防和国土安全部）以外的其他社会保障和医疗保险的义务，政府仍然会（查看） ，每年的赤字。 ”洞是如此之深，它是不可能的挖掘出来，据威廉斯。

But given political realities, officials spend whatever it takes to get elected and keep their jobs.但由于政治的现实，官员花不惜一切能够当选，并保持其工作。 That’s besides foreign wars, limitless corporate subsidies and more.这是除了外国的战争，无限公司的补贴和更多。 Things, however, won’t improve.事情，不过，将不会改善。 They’ll worsen, and that for Williams spells hyperinflation ahead.他们将进一步恶化，并为威廉姆斯阐述了恶性通货膨胀的未来。 It’s happening “with the full knowledge of political Washington and the Federal Reserve.” It it weren’t for the US’s “special position,” our debt would likely be rated “below investment grade instead of triple-A.” Longer term bonds are especially risky.它的发生“与充分的认识，政治华盛顿和美国联邦储备委员会” ，它不是为我们的“特殊地位” ，我们的债务可能会被评为“低于投资级别，而非三A ” 。长远而言，发行的债券，尤其是风险。 At some point, they’ll lose their full value.在一些点，他们就会失去他们的全部价值。 They also risk default, and that’s besides their loss in dollar terms.他们的风险也默认情况下，这除了他们的损失以美元计算。

It’s just a matter of time before foreign investors get worried enough to act - buying fewer Treasuries down to none, then followed by redemptions.这只是一个时间的问题之前，外国投资者的担心得到足够的法-购买较少的国库券下跌对零票，随后赎回。 The Fed will have to compensate.美联储将有补偿。 Print more currency, and the problem deepens.打印更多的货币，和问题，深化了。 Its value declines and inflation accelerates.它的价值下降和通货膨胀加速。

Trade policies worsen things.贸易政策恶化的事情。 We’re in a global race to the bottom.我们正处在一个全球性的竞赛底部。 The once bedrock manufacturing base eroded.曾经是制造业基地的基石受到侵蚀。 It’s now 10% of the economy and falling.它的现在， 10 ％的经济和下降。 Services currently account for around 84% of it and rising.服务目前占大约84 ％的资讯科技及不断上升。 Jobs in all categories are being offshored to low-wage countries.工作在所有类别目前正在境外，以低工资国家。 Average inflation-adjusted wages keep declining.平均通货膨胀调整后的工资不断下降。 Real earnings are below their early 1970s peak.实际收入是低于其1970年代初的高峰。 Living standards are falling.生活水准正在下降。 Consumer debt is rising to make up the shortfall.消费者债务上升，以此来弥补缺额。 Savings are liquidated.节省下来的清算。 Before the housing decline, mortgage refinancing helped when valuations rose.前房屋下降，抵押贷款再融资帮助时，估值上升。 It meant taking on more debt.这意味着采取更多的债务。 Fed policy encouraged it.联储政策鼓励它。 Today’s dilemma “is payback” for unsustainable bubble-creation policies.今天的困境“是回馈”不可持续的泡沫创造的政策。 Recalling a relevant quote: “Things that can’t go on forever won’t.”回顾有关引述： “事情不能永远继续下去会不会” 。

Bad policy caused enormous structural change, and trade deficits are part of it.坏的政策，造成了巨大的结构性变化，和贸易赤字是它的一部分。 They’ve “risen to the highest level for any country in history.” They’re one more problem for a seriously over-extended economy.他们已经“上升到最高水平，任何国家在历史上， ”他们是其中之一，更多的问题，严重的过度扩展的经济体系。 It places “the federal government and Federal Reserve in untenable positions, where they cannot easily or rapidly address the underlying problems, even if standard economic stimuli were available.”它的地方“联邦政府和联邦储备委员会在站不住脚的立场，在那里他们不能轻易或迅速解决潜在的问题，即使标准刺激经济提供” 。

Given the federal deficit and out-of-control spending, fiscal policy limits have been reached.鉴于联邦赤字和失控的控制支出，财政政策的限制，已达成的。 The Fed’s in the same bind.美联储在相同的约束。 It can neither stimulate the economy or contain inflation.它可以既不刺激经济或抑制通膨。 Rate cuts have done little.减息，做了一点。 Saving the dollar may require raising them, but that won’t “contain non-demand driven inflation.” It shows up in high food, energy, health care, and companies like Dow Chemical announcing on May 28 that it will raise prices across the board up to 20% to offset increased costs.储蓄美元可能需要提高他们，但不会“包含非由需求驱动的通货膨胀。 ”这显示了在高的食物，能源，保健，和公司一样，道氏化学公司宣布， 5月28日，它将提高价格，全国董事会高达20 ％ ，以抵消增加的成本。

More cause for worry, and Williams anticipates depression.更令人忧虑，和威廉姆斯预计抑郁症。 Hyperinflation will follow, and it will sink “the economy into a great depression.” It will halt commercial activity.恶性通货膨胀会跟进，这将击沉“经济陷入大萧条”将停止商业活动。 The greater disparity in income, the more negative its consequences.更大的收入差距，更多的负面后果。 “Extremes in income variance usually are followed by financial panics and economic depressions. “极端的收入差异，通常是其次是金融恐慌和经济洼地。 US income variance today is higher” than in 1929 and “nearly double that of any other ‘advanced’ economy.”美国的收入差异今天是较高的“比在1929年和”增加近一倍，即任何其他先进经济“ 。

Federal bailouts have worsened things.联邦bailouts恶化的事情。 Dollar creation exploded.美元创造爆炸。 Crisis has been pushed into the future.危机已被推到未来。 Its enormity will be far greater, and foreign investors will get stuck with a lot of it.其艰巨性将远远更大，外国投资者会碰到困难了很多。 When it arrives in strength, capital outflow will follow, and dollar valuation will plunge with it.当它抵达的实力，资本流出会跟进，和美元的估值将投身与它。 Williams believes that “both central bank and major private investors know that the dollar is going to be a losing proposition.威廉斯认为， “双方的中央银行和私人投资者的主要知道，美元将是一个失去的主张。 They either expect and/or hope that they can get of (it) in time to lock in their profits (or for central bankers) that they can forestall the ultimate global economic crisis” as long as possible.他们或者期望和/或希望他们能得到的（它）在时间锁定在他们的利润（或为中央银行行长）表示，他们可以预先最终的全球经济危机“尽可能长时间。

Dollars are very vulnerable in this environment.美元是非常脆弱的在这样的环境中。 If Treasuries are dumped, the Fed will monetize debt to make up the difference.如果国债是倾倒，美联储将赚钱的债务，以补足差额。 Inflation will then accelerate, multi-trillion dollar deficits will worsen things, and a “self-feeding cycle of currency debasement and hyperinflation” will follow.通胀就会加快，多万亿美元的赤字将恶化的东西， “自我喂养周期的货币debasement和恶性通货膨胀”也会跟进。

Cash as we know it will disappear.现金，因为我们知道它将会消失。 A barter system and black market will replace it or possible introduction of a new currency. 1易货制度和黑市将取代它，或可能引入新的货币。 Since most money today is electronic, not physical, chances of it adapting “are practically nil.” With hyperinflation, electronic commerce would completely shut down and economic collapse would follow.由于大部分的钱，今天是电子，而不是身体，它的机会，适应“几乎为零。 ”恶性通货膨胀，电子商业将完全关闭和经济崩溃会跟随。 Gold and silver will be invaluable.黄金和白银，将宝贵的。 Holders could exchange them for goods and services.持有人可以交流，他们对商品和服务。

Physical goods will also be precious for survival and as a medium of exchange.实物商品也将宝贵的生存和作为交易媒介。 Anything with a long shelf life may be stocked in advance, and providers of essential services could barter them for goods and other services.任何具有悠久的货架寿命可能会储存在前进，并提供必要的服务可以易货他们的商品和其他服务。 Forewarned is forearmed.预先是forearmed 。 Safety and liquidity are crucial.安全性和流动性是很重要的。 Anything retaining value is essential.什么保留的价值是至关重要的。 Real estate, other currencies for example.房地产，其他货币例如。 Foreign equities and debt to a small degree because US financial assets hammering will spill everywhere.外国股票和债务的一小程度上是因为美国金融资产的冲击将波及无处不在。

With all that to deal with, consider another dilemma - the likelihood of painful political change, civil unrest, disruptive violence, and utter chaos.与所有的处理，考虑的另一个困境-的可能性痛苦的政治变化，内乱，破坏性的暴力，和完全的混乱。 If Williams is right and hyperinflation arrives, Katie bar the door on what may follow.如果威廉斯是正确的和恶性通货膨胀的来临之际，凯蒂酒吧的大门，就什么可能跟进。 Revolutions are possible with three notable last century ones to consider - in Russia, Weimer Germany and Nationalist China.革命是可能的三个显着与上个世纪的考虑-在俄罗斯， w eimer德国和中国的民族主义。 In each case, the old order ended, everything changed, but not for the good.在每种情况下，旧秩序的结束，一切都变了，但并非为好。 How does Williams advise?如何威廉姆斯提供意见？ Evaluate one’s own circumstances, use common sense, and forewarned is forearmed.评价一个自己的情况下，使用普通常识，并预先是forearmed 。 That will help, but hard times hurt everyone.这将帮助，但艰难的时刻伤害了大家。

Hopefully they won’t arrive, at least not full-blown as Williams predicts.希望他们不会抵达，至少不是充分吹作为威廉姆斯预测。 But make no mistake.但不要搞错。 Excess has a price.过剩已付出代价。 The more of it the greater.越多，它的更大。 America has an ocean of it.美国的海洋。 Sooner or later comes payback.迟早的事来回报。 “Things that can’t go on forever won’t.” “事情不能永远继续下去会不会” 。

See More: 看到更多的： Stephen Lendman 斯蒂芬lendman

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