Oil: A global crisis石油：一場全球性危機
The Iraq War means oil costs three times more than it should, says a leading expert.伊拉克戰爭的手段，石油價格的3倍以上，應該說，領導專家。 How are our lives going to change as we struggle to cope with the $200 barrel?如何是我們的生命，要改變我們的鬥爭，以應付200元的每桶呢？ Geoffrey Lean杰弗裡精益 reports.報告。
The invasion of Iraq by Britain and the US has trebled the price of oil, according to a leading expert, costing the world a staggering $6 trillion in higher energy prices alone.入侵伊拉克，由英國和美國增加了兩倍，石油價格，根據領先的專家，耗資世界一個驚人的六萬億美元在能源價格高企。
The oil economist Dr Mamdouh Salameh, who advises both the World Bank and the UN Industrial Development Organisation (Unido), told The Independent on Sunday that the price of oil would now be no more than $40 a barrel, less than a third of the record $135 a barrel reached last week, if it had not been for the Iraq war.石油經濟學博士mamdouh salameh ，誰提供意見，無論是世界銀行和聯合國工業發展組織（工發組織） ，告訴獨立於週日表示，石油價格將現在不會超過每桶40美元，不到三分之一的紀錄135元每桶達到上星期，如果沒有為伊拉克戰爭。
He spoke after oil prices set a new record on 13 consecutive days over the past two weeks.他發言之後，原油價格創下新的紀錄，連續13天超過過去兩個星期。 They have now multiplied sixfold since 2002, compared with the fourfold increase of the 1973 and 1974 “oil shock” that ended the world’s long postwar boom.他們現在成倍增加六倍，自2002年以來，相對於增加了四倍的1973年和1974年“石油衝擊” ，結束了世界的長期戰後繁榮。
Goldman Sachs predicted last week that the price could rise to an unprecedented $200 a barrel over the next year, and the world is coming to terms with the idea that the age of cheap oil has ended, with far-reaching repercussions on their activities.高盛預測，上週的價格可能上升到一個前所未有的200元，每桶超過在未來一年，世界是來條款與想法，即年齡廉價石油已經結束，具有深遠的反響就其活動。
Dr Salameh, director of the UK-based Oil Market Consultancy Service, and an authority on Iraq’s oil, said it is the only one of the world’s biggest producing countries with enough reserves substantially to increase its flow.博士salameh主任，總部位於英國的石油市場顧問服務，和一管理局對伊拉克的石油，說這是唯一的一個世界上最大的生產國與足夠的儲備大幅增加其流。
Production in eight of the others – the US, Canada, Iran, Indonesia, Russia, Britain, Norway and Mexico – has peaked, he says, while China and Saudia Arabia, the remaining two, are nearing the point at of decline.生產中有8個，其他-美國，加拿大，伊朗，印度尼西亞，俄羅斯，英國，挪威和墨西哥-已達到頂峰，他說，雖然中國和沙特阿拉伯，餘下的兩個，正在接近點的跌幅。 Before the war, Saddam Hussein’s regime pumped some 3.5 million barrels of oil a day, but this had now fallen to just two million barrels.戰爭之前，薩達姆政權的泵浦大約350萬桶石油的一天，不過，這現在已下降到只有200.0萬桶。
Dr Salameh told the all-party parliamentary group on peak oil last month that Iraq had offered the United States a deal, three years before the war, that would have opened up 10 new giant oil fields on “generous” terms in return for the lifting of sanctions.博士salameh說，各黨派議會小組的高峰期油上個月，伊拉克提供了美國的一項協議，三年前的戰爭，那將開闢了10個新的巨型油田就“慷慨”的條款，以換取解除制裁。 “This would certainly have prevented the steep rise of the oil price,” he said. “這一定會阻止急劇上升的石油價格， ”他說。 “But the US had a different idea. “但美國有不同的想法。 It planned to occupy Iraq and annex its oil.”它計劃佔領伊拉克和附件其石油“ 。
Chris Skrebowski, the editor of Petroleum Review, said: “There are many ifs in the world oil market.克里斯skrebowski ，編輯的石油檢討，說： “有許多如果在世界石油市場。 This is a very big one, but there are others.這是一個很大的一個，但也有其他人。 If there had been a civil war in Iraq, even less oil would have been produced.”如果有過一場內戰在伊拉克，即使是少油，將已製作了“ 。
David Strahan: What happens next? 朱斯特拉罕：接下來該怎麼做？ The expert’s view 專家的看法
At just under 86 million barrels per day, global oil production has, essentially, stagnated since 2005, despite soaring demand, suggesting that production has already reached its geological limits, or “peak oil”.在剛剛下的8600.0萬桶每天，全球石油生產，基本上，停滯不前，自2005年以來，儘管需求激增，這表明生產已達到其地質的限制，或“高峰石油” 。
Recession in the West may not provide relief on prices.經濟衰退，在西方可能無法提供救濟的價格。 There is increasing demand from countries such as China, Russia and the Opec countries, whose consumers are cushioned against rising prices by heavy subsidies.有日益增加的需求，從國家，如中國，俄羅斯和歐佩克國家，其消費者是襯墊對價格上漲沉重的補貼。 The future could unfold in a number of ways:未來可開展在若干方面：
Oil price collapses 石油價格出現坍塌。
Fuel subsidies could suddenly be scrapped, dousing demand.燃料補貼可以突然取消， dousing的需求。 Cost pressures have forced Malaysia, Indonesia and Taiwan to cut them, but China is hardly strapped for cash.成本的壓力，迫使馬來西亞，印尼和台灣，以削減他們，但中國是難以緊張的現金。 Opec producers are under no pressure to abolish subsidies; as the oil price rises they get richer.歐佩克生產者是沒有任何壓力下，取消補貼;由於油價上升，他們變得越來越富。 Prospect: very unlikely.展望：不太可能。
Peace could break out in Iraq, the long-disputed oil law agreed, and international oil companies start work on the world’s largest collection of untapped oil fields.和平可以擺脫在伊拉克問題上，爭議已久的石油法的通過，和國際油公司展開工作，在世界上最大的收集尚未開發的油田。 Prospect: vanishingly unlikely.展望： vanishingly的可能性不大。
Oil price stabilises or moderates 石油價格stabilises或溫和派
Deep recession in the West might cut oil consumption enough to offset growth in the developing world and Opec, or even engulf them too, softening prices.深度衰退，在西方可能削減石油消費量足以抵銷增長，在發展中世界和歐佩克，或什至吞噬他們太，軟化的價格。 Prospect: unlikely in the short term.展望：不大可能在短期內。
Oil price soars 石油價格急升
Russian oil output has gone into decline; Saudi Arabia has shelved plans to expand production capacity, and advisers to the Nigerian government predict its output will fall by 30 per cent by 2015.俄羅斯石油產量已經下降;沙特阿拉伯已擱置計劃擴大生產能力，和顧問，尼日利亞政府預測其產出將下降30 ％ ，到2015年。 More news like this, expect oil at $200 a barrel.更多新聞一樣，期望石油200美元一桶。 Prospect: likely.前景：有可能。
Big oil producers will increasingly divert exports for home consumption.大石油生產國將日益轉移出口為家庭消費。 Opec, Russian and Mexican exports expected to fall, pushing oil to $200 by 2012.歐佩克，俄羅斯和墨西哥的出口預期下降，推油200元，到2012年。 Prospect: highly likely.展望：極有可能。
The writer is author of ‘The Last Oil Shock’, John Murray, 作者是作者的'最後的石油衝擊' ，約翰默里， lastoilshock.com lastoilshock.com
Peak oil 山頂石油
After 150 years of growth, the oil age is beginning to come to an end.經過150多年的增長，石油時代的開始告一段落。 “Peak oil” is the common term for when production stops increasing and starts to decline. “高峰石油”是共同的任期時，生產停止增加，並開始下降。 At that point what have been ever-expanding and cheap supplies of the resource on which all modern economies depend become scarcer and more expensive, with potentially devastating consequences.在這一點上有什麼已日益擴大和廉價的供應資源上，所有的現代經濟體系的依賴，成為稀缺和更昂貴的，具有潛在的破壞性後果。
Pessimists believe that production has passed its peak.悲觀論者認為，生產已經走過了它的高峰期。 Optimists say it may be 20 years or so away – which would give us some time to prepare – but are now muted.樂觀主義者說，它可能是20年或使遠離-這將給予我們一些時間來準備-但現在靜音。 Last week the hitherto optimistic International Energy Agency admitted that it may have overestimated future capacity.上週，迄今樂觀，國際能源機構承認，它可能高估了未來的能力。 Chris Skrebowski, editor of ‘Petroleum Review’ and once an optimist himself, believes that the world is now in “the foothills of peak oil”.克里斯skrebowski ，編輯'石油檢討' ，一旦自己是一個樂觀主義者，認為，世界現在是在“山麓，山頂油” 。 Prices may ease a bit over the next few years, but then the real crunch will come.價格可能紓緩一點在未來幾年，但後來真正緊縮的到來。 The price then?價格，然後呢？ “Pick a number!” “挑選了一些” ！
Travel 旅行
Oil provides 95 per cent of the energy used in transport, so this will be hit hard and soon.石油提供95 ％的能源用在交通，因此，這將沉重打擊，並很快。 People are likely to go on using their cars, but airlines are expected to be the first to suffer.人很可能去上使用他們的汽車，但航空公司預計將首當其衝。 On Thursday, British Airways’ chief executive Willie Walsh declared that the era of cheap flights was over, suggesting that those environmentalists who have made them their main target for combating climate change may have been wasting their breath.對週四，英航行政總裁威利沃爾什宣布時代的廉價航班結束，暗示那些環保誰取得了他們的主要目標，為對付氣候變化可能已被浪費他們的呼吸。
At least three carriers have already gone bust this year.至少有三個運營商已經倒閉今年。 Last week, American Airlines said it was cutting routes, laying off staff, and charging US passengers $15 to check in a bag because of a $3bn rise in its fuel bills.上週，美國航空公司說，這是切削路線，裁員，和美國的乘客收取15元的檢查，在一個袋內，因為一個30億美元上升，其燃料法案。 Even Michael O’Leary, chief executive of Ryanair, says the oil price is “really hurting”.甚至邁克爾o'leary ，行政長官的Ryanair的說，石油價格是“真正傷害” 。 On Thursday, Credit Suisse analysts said his company would slip into the red if oil prices rose just a little more, to $140 a barrel.對週四，瑞士信貸分析師表示，他的公司將陷入紅色，如果石油價格上漲只是一個多一點， 140元一桶。
Cars 車
The world’s biggest oil well, it is said, lies beneath Detroit.世界上最大的油井，這是說，謊言下方底特律。 US vehicles get an average of only 25 miles per gallon.美國車輛得到一個平均只有25英里每加侖。 Dramatically improving this would do more to ease the oil crunch than any likely new discovery.極大地提高，這將做更多的，以紓緩石油緊絀，比任何可能的新發現。 But new measures recently approved by Congress would increase the average only to the 35mpg already being achieved by China.但新措施，最近批准了由國會將增加平均只向35mpg已被中國所取得的。 Europe does better, if not well enough, at 44mpg.歐洲是否更好，如果不是不夠好，在44mpg 。
Rising fuel prices are already beginning to drive change.燃料價格上漲已開始驅動器的變化。 Sales of 4×4s are plummeting in both the US and Britain, and those of hybrids – which do 60mpg are soaring.銷售的4 × 4是直線下降，在無論是美國和英國，這些雜交種-做6 0mpg是大幅上漲。 As the price climbs further, manufacturers will unlock long-prepared plans for much more efficient vehicles.隨著價格進一步攀升，製造商將解鎖長期準備的計劃更為有效的車輛。 “Plug-in” hybrids, charged up with electricity overnight, save another 45 per cent in petrol consumption. “外掛程式”雜交種，被控與電力一夜之間，保存另有45 ％的汽油消費。 Further down the line is the “hypercar” – made of tough, light plastic – which could cross the US on a single tankful.進一步下降的路線是“ hypercar ” -作出強硬，輕工塑料-這可能過境美國的一個單一的t a nkful。
Houses 房屋
All new houses in Britain will have to be zero carbon – burning no fossil fuels such as oil – by 2016, the Government announced, and housebuilders are struggling to meet the target.所有新建房屋在英國將要零碳-燃燒，沒有礦物燃料如石油-到2 0 16年，政府宣布，h o usebuilders掙扎，以滿足目標。 At present the standard can be reached only at great expense, but the industry is confident of bringing the cost down as mass production kicks in. It is even more important to adapt existing homes.目前的標準可以達到，只有在巨大的費用，但業界有信心把降低成本作為大規模生產踢英寸，這是更重要的，以適應現有的家園。
The key step is to super-insulate the house to make it as energy-efficient as possible – and only then to provide renewable energy sources.關鍵步驟是超級絕緣的內務，使作為能源效率，盡可能-然後才提供可再生能源的來源。 Solar water heaters, ground source heat pumps and boilers powered by wood pellets are favourites.太陽能熱水器，地源熱泵和鍋爐動力木材微丸是收藏。 Rooftop windmills do not work well enough yet.天台風車，不工作還不夠好。 Photovoltaic panels, which get electricity from the sun, are expensive but their price should come down.光伏板，獲得的電力來自太陽的，十分昂貴，但它們的價格應該下降。 Britain has lagged behind other countries.英國已落後於其他國家。 Soaring energy prices should shake things up.能源價格飛漲，應該動搖的東西。
Shopping 購物
Effectively, almost everything is partially made of oil, and so is going to get more expensive.有效地，幾乎所有的部分製成的油，所以是會得到更加昂貴。 About 10 calories of oil are burned to produce each calorie of food in the US, and farming a single cow and getting it to market uses as much as driving from New York to Los Angeles.約10卡路里的石油燃燒產生的熱量，每個食品在美國，農業和一個單一的奶牛和獲得它的市場用途，高達駕駛從紐約到洛杉磯。 Some 630g of fuel is used to produce every gram of microchips.一些六百三十〇克燃料是用於生產，每克的微型芯片。
The cult of local, seasonal produce will enter the mainstream, as everyone learns about food miles and a modern-day Dig for Victory grips gardeners – bad news for the farm workers overseas who provide 95 per cent of our fruit and half our vegetables.邪教的地方，季節性生產將進入主流，大家都學到食物英里和一個現代化的為期一天的挖掘，為勝利，掌握園丁-壞消息，為農場工人海外誰提供9 5％的水果和我們的一半，我們的蔬菜。 Trips to out-of-town supermarkets will seem extravagant, heralding a high street renaissance and a new surge in online grocery shopping, and soon we’ll all be eating our own potatoes.前往地地道道的城鎮超級市場，似乎奢侈，預示著高街的文藝復興時期及新高潮，在網上雜貨店購物，很快我們將所有吃我們自己的土豆。
Third World 第三次世界
Poor countries and their peoples will be hit by a devastating double whammy as both their fuel and food prices increase.貧窮國家和人民將遭受毀滅性的雙重打擊，因為他們的食物和燃料價格上漲。 Last year, when oil cost only about half as much, countries from Nepal to Nicaragua were hit by fuel shortages.去年，當石油的成本只有約半數之多，國家從尼泊爾到尼加拉瓜受到燃料短缺。 At least 25 of the 44 sub-Saharan nations are facing crippling electricity shortages.至少有25的44個撒哈拉以南的國家正面臨嚴重的電力短缺。
As oil is used in agriculture, its increased cost will also drive up the price of food, making more and more people go hungry.由於石油是用於農業，其成本增加也將推動了糧食價格，使越來越多的人挨餓。 Worse, expensive petrol is bound to increase the drive towards biofuels made from maize and other crops, which then brings the world’s poorest people into competition with affluent motorists for grain – a contest they cannot win.更糟的是，昂貴的汽油，勢必增加對生物燃料驅動器從玉米和其他作物，然後帶來了世界上最貧窮的人民，引入競爭與富裕的駕車人士，為糧食-競賽，他們不能贏得。 Just one fill-up of a 4×4’s tank with ethanol uses enough grain to feed one person for a year.剛一補-成立一個4 × 4的坦克用乙醇用途足夠的糧食養活一個人了一年。
Emerging economies 新興經濟體
China and India and other developing countries will help to drive up demand for oil and compete for scarce supplies.中國和印度及其他發展中國家，將有助於推動了對石油的需求和競爭，對稀缺用品。 This has already helped to raise prices: demand for oil from Western countries has actually fallen over the past two years, but the emerging economies have more than made up the slack.這已經幫助提高了價格：對石油的需求，從西方國家實際上已下降，過去兩年，但新興經濟體有多於彌補了疲弱。 And they have the money to do so.他們有金錢，這樣做。
Chinese and Indian consumers have so far been insulated from the effects of the price increase by heavy government subsidies, and their industrial revolutions and rapid growth are largely fuelled by oil.中國和印度消費者至今已被隔離的影響，價格上升，由沉重的政府補貼，和他們的工業革命和快速增長，主要是燃料的石油。 There is little sign that the growth in demand will slacken These countries are also likely to follow the time-honoured Western tradition of making deals with oil-exporting countries – and backing unpleasant regimes – to try to secure supplies.沒有什麼跡象表明需求的增長將放緩，這些國家也可能跟進的時間由來已久的西方傳統的交易與石油出口國-和支持不愉快的制度-嘗試，以確保供應。
Conflict 衝突
Last week.上週。 the embattled Gordon Brown – “incredibly focused” on oil, according to his spin-doctors – began playing the blame game.被圍困的財政大臣布朗-“令人難以置信的重點是”對石油，據他自旋醫生-開始玩遊戲的責任。 “It is a scandal,” he said, “that 40 per cent of the oil is controlled by Opec and that their decisions can restrict the supply of oil to the rest of the world.” “這是一個醜聞， ”他說， “ 40 ％的石油是由歐佩克和他們的決定，可以限制石油供應到世界其餘地區” 。
Someone should tell him that he should be blaming geology – or God – and that, as oil production peaks, Opec countries simply will not be able to pump more.有人告訴他，他應該歸咎於地質-或上帝-和，作為石油生產的高峰，歐佩克國家的根本將不能夠泵更多。 But he is not alone; four US senators warned Saudi Arabia that if it did not step up the flow, the US might withdraw its military support.但他並不孤單;四，美國參議員警告說，沙特阿拉伯認為，如果不加緊流，美國可能撤回其軍事支持。
There will be much more of this as supplies tighten.會有更多的作為供應收緊。 Three years ago, a US army report predicted oil would soon peak, and security risks increase.三年前，美陸軍報告預測，油價將很快高峰期，和安全方面的風險增加。 Expect oil wars.預計石油戰爭。 But, of course, we have already had one – in Iraq.但是，當然，我們已經有一個-在伊拉克。
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4 Responses to “Oil: A global crisis” 4回應“石油換：一場全球性危機”
Jeff 傑夫
Posted: May 25th, 2008 at 4:29 am | 發布時間： 2008年5月25日在上午04時29分| Link to this 鏈接到本whistler 惠斯勒
Posted: May 25th, 2008 at 8:08 am | 發布時間： 2008年5月25日在上午8時08分| Link to this 鏈接到本Reply回复Could someone please have a word in the ear of those filthy rich Arabs on behalf of the rest of the world to stop pushing up the price of oil.可能有人請有一個字，耳朵這些骯髒的豐富的阿拉伯人的名義世界其餘地區停止推高石油價格。 Someone should get them out of their plush palaces and get a taste of the real world.有人應讓他們離開自己的毛絨宮殿和取得，一嘗真正的世界。
root man 根的男子
Posted: May 26th, 2008 at 10:04 am | 發布時間： 2008年5月26日在上午10時04分| Link to this 鏈接到本Reply回复Wrong.錯誤的。
We have plenty of oil.我們有足夠的石油。
It is a scam.這是一個騙局。
Look at the evidence and prove it wrong.看看證據和證明它是錯誤的。
Peak oil is a lie繁忙的石油是一個謊言
http://tinyurl.com/ymcxygDan Williams 丹威廉斯
Posted: May 26th, 2008 at 7:32 pm | 發布時間： 2008年5月26日在下午7點32分| Link to this 鏈接到本Reply回复Millions of people’s lives destroyed because of the lies of the rich elite.數百萬人的生命摧毀，因為謊言豐富的精英。 For those who are not in the know, google:對於誰是而不是在所知， Google ：
“brotherhood of death”, (not the game), “bush nazi”, “bush gay”. “兄弟死亡” ， （不是遊戲） ， “布什納粹” ， “布什同性戀” 。 What makes some people happy brings death and destruction to others.是什麼使一些人帶來快樂的死亡和破壞，給他人。
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You realize, of course, that even if oil production were increased that we’re at max capacity in our refineries, meaning the supply of gasoline wouldn’t increase?你實現，當然，即使石油生產增加，我們正處於最多可容納在我們的煉油廠，這意味著供應汽油不會增加？
Also, that oil is traded as a comodity, and the main reason for the high price per barrel can be tied to that and to the weak dollar (oil is traded against the US dollar).此外，石油交易是作為一個comodity ，主要原因為高價格為每桶可連接至認為，和美元疲軟的（石油買賣是對美元） 。