Oil: A global crisis石油：一场全球性危机
The Iraq War means oil costs three times more than it should, says a leading expert.伊拉克战争的手段，石油价格的3倍以上，应该说，领导专家。 How are our lives going to change as we struggle to cope with the $200 barrel?如何是我们的生命，要改变我们的斗争，以应付200元的每桶呢？ Geoffrey Lean杰弗里精益 reports.报告。
The invasion of Iraq by Britain and the US has trebled the price of oil, according to a leading expert, costing the world a staggering $6 trillion in higher energy prices alone.入侵伊拉克，由英国和美国增加了两倍，石油价格，根据领先的专家，耗资世界一个惊人的六万亿美元在能源价格高企。
The oil economist Dr Mamdouh Salameh, who advises both the World Bank and the UN Industrial Development Organisation (Unido), told The Independent on Sunday that the price of oil would now be no more than $40 a barrel, less than a third of the record $135 a barrel reached last week, if it had not been for the Iraq war.石油经济学博士mamdouh salameh ，谁提供意见，无论是世界银行和联合国工业发展组织（工发组织） ，告诉独立于周日表示，石油价格将现在不会超过每桶40美元，不到三分之一的纪录135元每桶达到上星期，如果没有为伊拉克战争。
He spoke after oil prices set a new record on 13 consecutive days over the past two weeks.他发言之后，原油价格创下新的纪录，连续13天超过过去两个星期。 They have now multiplied sixfold since 2002, compared with the fourfold increase of the 1973 and 1974 “oil shock” that ended the world’s long postwar boom.他们现在成倍增加六倍，自2002年以来，相对于增加了四倍的1973年和1974年“石油冲击” ，结束了世界的长期战后繁荣。
Goldman Sachs predicted last week that the price could rise to an unprecedented $200 a barrel over the next year, and the world is coming to terms with the idea that the age of cheap oil has ended, with far-reaching repercussions on their activities.高盛预测，上周的价格可能上升到一个前所未有的200元，每桶超过在未来一年，世界是来条款与想法，即年龄廉价石油已经结束，具有深远的反响就其活动。
Dr Salameh, director of the UK-based Oil Market Consultancy Service, and an authority on Iraq’s oil, said it is the only one of the world’s biggest producing countries with enough reserves substantially to increase its flow.博士salameh主任，总部位于英国的石油市场顾问服务，和一管理局对伊拉克的石油，说这是唯一的一个世界上最大的生产国与足够的储备大幅增加其流。
Production in eight of the others – the US, Canada, Iran, Indonesia, Russia, Britain, Norway and Mexico – has peaked, he says, while China and Saudia Arabia, the remaining two, are nearing the point at of decline.生产中有8个，其他-美国，加拿大，伊朗，印度尼西亚，俄罗斯，英国，挪威和墨西哥-已达到顶峰，他说，虽然中国和沙特阿拉伯，余下的两个，正在接近点的跌幅。 Before the war, Saddam Hussein’s regime pumped some 3.5 million barrels of oil a day, but this had now fallen to just two million barrels.战争之前，萨达姆政权的泵浦大约350万桶石油的一天，不过，这现在已下降到只有200.0万桶。
Dr Salameh told the all-party parliamentary group on peak oil last month that Iraq had offered the United States a deal, three years before the war, that would have opened up 10 new giant oil fields on “generous” terms in return for the lifting of sanctions.博士salameh说，各党派议会小组的高峰期油上个月，伊拉克提供了美国的一项协议，三年前的战争，那将开辟了10个新的巨型油田就“慷慨”的条款，以换取解除制裁。 “This would certainly have prevented the steep rise of the oil price,” he said. “这一定会阻止急剧上升的石油价格， ”他说。 “But the US had a different idea. “但美国有不同的想法。 It planned to occupy Iraq and annex its oil.”它计划占领伊拉克和附件其石油“ 。
Chris Skrebowski, the editor of Petroleum Review, said: “There are many ifs in the world oil market.克里斯skrebowski ，编辑的石油检讨，说： “有许多如果在世界石油市场。 This is a very big one, but there are others.这是一个很大的一个，但也有其他人。 If there had been a civil war in Iraq, even less oil would have been produced.”如果有过一场内战在伊拉克，即使是少油，将已制作了“ 。
David Strahan: What happens next? 朱斯特拉罕：接下来该怎么做？ The expert’s view 专家的看法
At just under 86 million barrels per day, global oil production has, essentially, stagnated since 2005, despite soaring demand, suggesting that production has already reached its geological limits, or “peak oil”.在刚刚下的8600.0万桶每天，全球石油生产，基本上，停滞不前，自2005年以来，尽管需求激增，这表明生产已达到其地质的限制，或“高峰石油” 。
Recession in the West may not provide relief on prices.经济衰退，在西方可能无法提供救济的价格。 There is increasing demand from countries such as China, Russia and the Opec countries, whose consumers are cushioned against rising prices by heavy subsidies.有日益增加的需求，从国家，如中国，俄罗斯和欧佩克国家，其消费者是衬垫对价格上涨沉重的补贴。 The future could unfold in a number of ways:未来可开展在若干方面：
Oil price collapses 石油价格出现坍塌。
Fuel subsidies could suddenly be scrapped, dousing demand.燃料补贴可以突然取消， dousing的需求。 Cost pressures have forced Malaysia, Indonesia and Taiwan to cut them, but China is hardly strapped for cash.成本的压力，迫使马来西亚，印尼和台湾，以削减他们，但中国是难以紧张的现金。 Opec producers are under no pressure to abolish subsidies; as the oil price rises they get richer.欧佩克生产者是没有任何压力下，取消补贴;由于油价上升，他们变得越来越富。 Prospect: very unlikely.展望：不太可能。
Peace could break out in Iraq, the long-disputed oil law agreed, and international oil companies start work on the world’s largest collection of untapped oil fields.和平可以摆脱在伊拉克问题上，争议已久的石油法的通过，和国际油公司展开工作，在世界上最大的收集尚未开发的油田。 Prospect: vanishingly unlikely.展望： vanishingly的可能性不大。
Oil price stabilises or moderates 石油价格stabilises或温和派
Deep recession in the West might cut oil consumption enough to offset growth in the developing world and Opec, or even engulf them too, softening prices.深度衰退，在西方可能削减石油消费量足以抵销增长，在发展中世界和欧佩克，或什至吞噬他们太，软化的价格。 Prospect: unlikely in the short term.展望：不大可能在短期内。
Oil price soars 石油价格急升
Russian oil output has gone into decline; Saudi Arabia has shelved plans to expand production capacity, and advisers to the Nigerian government predict its output will fall by 30 per cent by 2015.俄罗斯石油产量已经下降;沙特阿拉伯已搁置计划扩大生产能力，和顾问，尼日利亚政府预测其产出将下降30 ％ ，到2015年。 More news like this, expect oil at $200 a barrel.更多新闻一样，期望石油200美元一桶。 Prospect: likely.前景：有可能。
Big oil producers will increasingly divert exports for home consumption.大石油生产国将日益转移出口为家庭消费。 Opec, Russian and Mexican exports expected to fall, pushing oil to $200 by 2012.欧佩克，俄罗斯和墨西哥的出口预期下降，推油200元，到2012年。 Prospect: highly likely.展望：极有可能。
The writer is author of ‘The Last Oil Shock’, John Murray, 作者是作者的'最后的石油冲击' ，约翰默里， lastoilshock.com lastoilshock.com
Peak oil 山顶石油
After 150 years of growth, the oil age is beginning to come to an end.经过150多年的增长，石油时代的开始告一段落。 “Peak oil” is the common term for when production stops increasing and starts to decline. “高峰石油”是共同的任期时，生产停止增加，并开始下降。 At that point what have been ever-expanding and cheap supplies of the resource on which all modern economies depend become scarcer and more expensive, with potentially devastating consequences.在这一点上有什么已日益扩大和廉价的供应资源上，所有的现代经济体系的依赖，成为稀缺和更昂贵的，具有潜在的破坏性后果。
Pessimists believe that production has passed its peak.悲观论者认为，生产已经走过了它的高峰期。 Optimists say it may be 20 years or so away – which would give us some time to prepare – but are now muted.乐观主义者说，它可能是20年或使远离-这将给予我们一些时间来准备-但现在静音。 Last week the hitherto optimistic International Energy Agency admitted that it may have overestimated future capacity.上周，迄今乐观，国际能源机构承认，它可能高估了未来的能力。 Chris Skrebowski, editor of ‘Petroleum Review’ and once an optimist himself, believes that the world is now in “the foothills of peak oil”.克里斯skrebowski ，编辑'石油检讨' ，一旦自己是一个乐观主义者，认为，世界现在是在“山麓，山顶油” 。 Prices may ease a bit over the next few years, but then the real crunch will come.价格可能纾缓一点在未来几年，但后来真正紧缩的到来。 The price then?价格，然后呢？ “Pick a number!” “挑选了一些” ！
Travel 旅行
Oil provides 95 per cent of the energy used in transport, so this will be hit hard and soon.石油提供95 ％的能源用在交通，因此，这将沉重打击，并很快。 People are likely to go on using their cars, but airlines are expected to be the first to suffer.人很可能去上使用他们的汽车，但航空公司预计将首当其冲。 On Thursday, British Airways’ chief executive Willie Walsh declared that the era of cheap flights was over, suggesting that those environmentalists who have made them their main target for combating climate change may have been wasting their breath.对周四，英航行政总裁威利沃尔什宣布时代的廉价航班结束，暗示那些环保谁取得了他们的主要目标，为对付气候变化可能已被浪费他们的呼吸。
At least three carriers have already gone bust this year.至少有三个运营商已经倒闭，今年 Last week, American Airlines said it was cutting routes, laying off staff, and charging US passengers $15 to check in a bag because of a $3bn rise in its fuel bills.上周，美国航空公司说，这是切削路线，裁员，和美国的乘客收取15元的检查，在一个袋内，因为一个30亿美元上升，其燃料法案。 Even Michael O’Leary, chief executive of Ryanair, says the oil price is “really hurting”.甚至迈克尔o'leary ，行政长官的Ryanair的说，石油价格是“真正伤害” 。 On Thursday, Credit Suisse analysts said his company would slip into the red if oil prices rose just a little more, to $140 a barrel.对周四，瑞士信贷分析师表示，他的公司将陷入红色，如果石油价格上涨只是一个多一点， 140元一桶。
Cars 车
The world’s biggest oil well, it is said, lies beneath Detroit.世界上最大的油井，这是说，谎言下方底特律。 US vehicles get an average of only 25 miles per gallon.美国车辆得到一个平均只有25英里每加仑。 Dramatically improving this would do more to ease the oil crunch than any likely new discovery.极大地提高，这将做更多的，以纾缓石油紧绌，比任何可能的新发现。 But new measures recently approved by Congress would increase the average only to the 35mpg already being achieved by China.但新措施，最近批准了由国会将增加平均只向35mpg已被中国所取得的。 Europe does better, if not well enough, at 44mpg.欧洲是否更好，如果不是不够好，在44mpg 。
Rising fuel prices are already beginning to drive change.燃料价格上涨已开始驱动器的变化。 Sales of 4×4s are plummeting in both the US and Britain, and those of hybrids – which do 60mpg are soaring.销售的4 × 4是直线下降，在无论是美国和英国，这些杂交种-做6 0mpg是大幅上涨。 As the price climbs further, manufacturers will unlock long-prepared plans for much more efficient vehicles.随着价格进一步攀升，制造商将解锁长期准备的计划更为有效的车辆。 “Plug-in” hybrids, charged up with electricity overnight, save another 45 per cent in petrol consumption. “外挂程式”杂交种，被控与电力一夜之间，保存另有45 ％的汽油消费。 Further down the line is the “hypercar” – made of tough, light plastic – which could cross the US on a single tankful.进一步下降的路线是“ hypercar ” -作出强硬，轻工塑料-这可能过境美国的一个单一的t a nkful。
Houses 房屋
All new houses in Britain will have to be zero carbon – burning no fossil fuels such as oil – by 2016, the Government announced, and housebuilders are struggling to meet the target.所有新建房屋在英国将要零碳-燃烧，没有矿物燃料如石油-到2 0 16年，政府宣布，h o usebuilders挣扎，以满足目标。 At present the standard can be reached only at great expense, but the industry is confident of bringing the cost down as mass production kicks in. It is even more important to adapt existing homes.目前的标准可以达到，只有在巨大的费用，但业界有信心把降低成本作为大规模生产踢英寸，这是更重要的，以适应现有的家园。
The key step is to super-insulate the house to make it as energy-efficient as possible – and only then to provide renewable energy sources.关键步骤是超级绝缘的内务，使作为能源效率，尽可能-然后才提供可再生能源的来源。 Solar water heaters, ground source heat pumps and boilers powered by wood pellets are favourites.太阳能热水器，地源热泵和锅炉动力木材微丸是收藏。 Rooftop windmills do not work well enough yet.天台风车，不工作还不够好。 Photovoltaic panels, which get electricity from the sun, are expensive but their price should come down.光伏板，获得的电力来自太阳的，十分昂贵，但它们的价格应该下降。 Britain has lagged behind other countries.英国已落后于其他国家。 Soaring energy prices should shake things up.能源价格飞涨，应该动摇的东西。
Shopping 购物
Effectively, almost everything is partially made of oil, and so is going to get more expensive.有效地，几乎所有的部分制成的油，所以是会得到更加昂贵。 About 10 calories of oil are burned to produce each calorie of food in the US, and farming a single cow and getting it to market uses as much as driving from New York to Los Angeles.约10卡路里的石油燃烧产生的热量，每个食品在美国，农业和一个单一的奶牛和获得它的市场用途，高达驾驶从纽约到洛杉矶。 Some 630g of fuel is used to produce every gram of microchips.一些六百三十〇克燃料是用于生产，每克的微型芯片。
The cult of local, seasonal produce will enter the mainstream, as everyone learns about food miles and a modern-day Dig for Victory grips gardeners – bad news for the farm workers overseas who provide 95 per cent of our fruit and half our vegetables.邪教的地方，季节性生产将进入主流，大家都学到食物英里和一个现代化的为期一天的挖掘，为胜利，掌握园丁-坏消息，为农场工人海外谁提供9 5％的水果和我们的一半，我们的蔬菜。 Trips to out-of-town supermarkets will seem extravagant, heralding a high street renaissance and a new surge in online grocery shopping, and soon we’ll all be eating our own potatoes.前往地地道道的城镇超级市场，似乎奢侈，预示着高街的文艺复兴时期及新高潮，在网上杂货店购物，很快我们将所有吃我们自己的土豆。
Third World 第三次世界
Poor countries and their peoples will be hit by a devastating double whammy as both their fuel and food prices increase.贫穷国家和人民将遭受毁灭性的双重打击，因为他们的食物和燃料价格上涨。 Last year, when oil cost only about half as much, countries from Nepal to Nicaragua were hit by fuel shortages.去年，当石油的成本只有约半数之多，国家从尼泊尔到尼加拉瓜受到燃料短缺。 At least 25 of the 44 sub-Saharan nations are facing crippling electricity shortages.至少有25的44个撒哈拉以南的国家正面临严重的电力短缺。
As oil is used in agriculture, its increased cost will also drive up the price of food, making more and more people go hungry.由于石油是用于农业，其成本增加也将推动了粮食价格，使越来越多的人挨饿。 Worse, expensive petrol is bound to increase the drive towards biofuels made from maize and other crops, which then brings the world’s poorest people into competition with affluent motorists for grain – a contest they cannot win.更糟的是，昂贵的汽油，势必增加对生物燃料驱动器从玉米和其他作物，然后带来了世界上最贫穷的人民，引入竞争与富裕的驾车人士，为粮食-竞赛，他们不能赢得。 Just one fill-up of a 4×4’s tank with ethanol uses enough grain to feed one person for a year.刚一补-成立一个4 × 4的坦克用乙醇用途足够的粮食养活一个人了一年。
Emerging economies 新兴经济体
China and India and other developing countries will help to drive up demand for oil and compete for scarce supplies.中国和印度及其他发展中国家，将有助于推动了对石油的需求和竞争，对稀缺用品。 This has already helped to raise prices: demand for oil from Western countries has actually fallen over the past two years, but the emerging economies have more than made up the slack.这已经帮助提高了价格：对石油的需求，从西方国家实际上已下降，过去两年，但新兴经济体有多于弥补了疲弱。 And they have the money to do so.他们有金钱，这样做。
Chinese and Indian consumers have so far been insulated from the effects of the price increase by heavy government subsidies, and their industrial revolutions and rapid growth are largely fuelled by oil.中国和印度消费者至今已被隔离的影响，价格上升，由沉重的政府补贴，和他们的工业革命和快速增长，主要是燃料的石油。 There is little sign that the growth in demand will slacken These countries are also likely to follow the time-honoured Western tradition of making deals with oil-exporting countries – and backing unpleasant regimes – to try to secure supplies.没有什么迹象表明需求的增长将放缓，这些国家也可能跟进的时间由来已久的西方传统的交易与石油出口国-和支持不愉快的制度-尝试，以确保供应。
Conflict 冲突
Last week.上周。 the embattled Gordon Brown – “incredibly focused” on oil, according to his spin-doctors – began playing the blame game.被围困的财政大臣布朗-“令人难以置信的重点是”对石油，据他自旋医生-开始玩游戏的责任。 “It is a scandal,” he said, “that 40 per cent of the oil is controlled by Opec and that their decisions can restrict the supply of oil to the rest of the world.” “这是一个丑闻， ”他说， “ 40 ％的石油是由欧佩克和他们的决定，可以限制石油供应到世界其余地区” 。
Someone should tell him that he should be blaming geology – or God – and that, as oil production peaks, Opec countries simply will not be able to pump more.有人告诉他，他应该归咎于地质-或上帝-和，作为石油生产的高峰，欧佩克国家的根本将不能够泵更多。 But he is not alone; four US senators warned Saudi Arabia that if it did not step up the flow, the US might withdraw its military support.但他并不孤单;四，美国参议员警告说，沙特阿拉伯认为，如果不加紧流，美国可能撤回其军事支持。
There will be much more of this as supplies tighten.会有更多的作为供应收紧。 Three years ago, a US army report predicted oil would soon peak, and security risks increase.三年前，美陆军报告预测，油价将很快高峰期，和安全方面的风险增加。 Expect oil wars.预计石油战争。 But, of course, we have already had one – in Iraq.但是，当然，我们已经有一个-在伊拉克。
See More: 看到更多的： Oil 石油 World News 世界新闻Have Your Say: Oil: A global crisis 你说：油：一场全球性危机
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2 Responses to “Oil: A global crisis” 2反应“石油换：一场全球性危机”
Jeff 杰夫
Posted: May 25th, 2008 at 4:29 am | 发布时间： 2008年5月25日在上午04时29分| Link to this 链接到本whistler 惠斯勒
Posted: May 25th, 2008 at 8:08 am | 发布时间： 2008年5月25日在上午8时08分| Link to this 链接到本Reply回复Could someone please have a word in the ear of those filthy rich Arabs on behalf of the rest of the world to stop pushing up the price of oil.可能有人请有一个字，耳朵这些肮脏的丰富的阿拉伯人的名义世界其余地区停止推高石油价格。 Someone should get them out of their plush palaces and get a taste of the real world.有人应让他们离开自己的毛绒宫殿和取得，一尝真正的世界。
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You realize, of course, that even if oil production were increased that we’re at max capacity in our refineries, meaning the supply of gasoline wouldn’t increase?你实现，当然，即使石油生产增加，我们正处于最多可容纳在我们的炼油厂，这意味着供应汽油不会增加？
Also, that oil is traded as a comodity, and the main reason for the high price per barrel can be tied to that and to the weak dollar (oil is traded against the US dollar).此外，石油交易是作为一个comodity ，主要原因为高价格为每桶可连接至认为，和美元疲软的（石油买卖是对美元） 。