Is the dollar leading us into a depression?因是美元匯率導致我們陷入一種抑鬱症？

A fallen greenback could mean economic turmoil, or it could trigger an economic crisis.倒下greenback可能意味著經濟動盪，或者它可能會引發經濟危機。 Economists are having trouble predicting the outcome because investors are not behaving rationallyBy rationallyBy J. Bradford DeLong經濟學家遇到的預測結果，因為投資者是不會表現得rationallyby rationallyby作者德隆

The falling US dollar has emerged as a source of profound global macro-economic distress.高空擲美元已經出現的一個來源深刻的全球宏觀的經濟窘迫。 The question now is how bad that distress will become.現在的問題是如何惡劣，遇險就越小。 Is the world economy at risk?是世界經濟處於危險中嗎？ There are two possibilities.有兩種可能性。 If global savers and investors expect the US dollar’s depreciation to continue, they will flee the currency unless they are compensated appropriately for keeping their money in the US and its assets, implying that the gap between US and foreign interest rates will widen.如果全球儲蓄者和投資者預期美元貶值下去，他們會逃離貨幣，除非他們的補償，妥善保存他們的錢，在美國和它的資產，這意味著該差距，美國和外國的利率會進一步拉開。 As a result, the cost of capital in the US will soar, discouraging investment and reducing consumption spending as high interest rates depress the value of households’ principal assets: their houses.因此，資本成本，在美國會上升，對投資和減少消費支出，因為高利率壓低貨值家庭的主要資產：他們的房子。

The resulting recession might fuel further pessimism and cutbacks in spending, deepening the downturn.由此造成的經濟衰退可能會進一步燃料悲觀主義和削減開支，深化經濟低迷。 A US in recession would no longer serve as the importer of last resort, which might send the rest of the world into recession as well.美國經濟衰退將不再擔任進口商的最後手段，這可能會給世界其餘地區步入衰退。 A world in which everybody expects a falling US dollar is a world in economic crisis.在這個世界裡，每個人都預期下降美元，是世界上的經濟危機。

By contrast, a world in which the US dollar has already fallen is one that may see economic turmoil, but not an economic crisis.相比之下，在這個世界裡，美元已跌至是一個可以看到經濟動盪，而不是一個經濟危機。 If the US dollar has already fallen — if nobody expects it to fall much more — then there is no reason to compensate global savers and investors for holding US assets.如果美元已跌至-如果沒有人希望它屬於得多-則沒有任何理由，以補償全球儲蓄者和投資者持有美國資產。

On the contrary, in this scenario there are opportunities: the US dollar, after all, might rise; US interest rates will be at normal levels; asset values will not be unduly depressed; and investment spending will not be affected by financial turmoil.與此相反，在這種情況下，有機會：美元，畢竟，可能回升;美國利率將保持在正常水平;資產價值不會受到壓抑;及投資開支，將不會受金融風暴的衝擊。

Of course, there may well be turbulence: When US wage levels appear low because of a weak US dollar, it is hard to export to the US, and other countries must rely on other sources of demand to maintain full employment.當然，也有可能被湍流：當美國的工資水平似乎很低，因為弱勢美元，這是難以出口到美國，和其他國家必須依靠其他來源的需求，以維持充分就業。 The government may have to shore up the financial system if the changes in asset prices that undermined the US dollar sink risk-loving or imprudent lenders.政府可能要上岸了金融體系，如果變動，資產價格即削弱了美元匯風險愛好或輕率放款。

But these are, or ought to be, problems that we can solve.但是，這些都是，或應該是問題，我們能解決的問題。 By contrast, sky-high US interest rates produced by a general expectation of a massive ongoing US dollar decline is a macroeconomic problem without a solution.相比之下，高企，美國利率所產生的普遍期待一個大規模正在進行美元下降是一個宏觀經濟問題沒有得到解決。

Yet so far there are no signs that global savers and investors expect a US dollar decline.然而，直至目前為止，並無跡象顯示全球儲蓄者和投資者預期美元下跌。 The large gap between US and foreign long-term interest rates that should emerge from and signal expectations of a falling US dollar does not exist.之間的巨大差距，美國和外國的長期利率應該擺脫與信號所預期的下降，美元是不存在的。 And the US$65 billion needed every month to fund the US current-account deficit continues to flow in. Thus, the world economy may dodge yet another potential catastrophe.和美國的650億美元，需要每三個月向基金，美國的經常帳赤字繼續流入，因此，世界經濟有可能迴避，但另一個潛在的災難。

That may still prove to be wishful thinking.這可能仍然被證明是一廂情願的想法。 After all, the US’ still-large current-account deficit guarantees that the US dollar will continue to fall.畢竟，美國仍是廣大市民的經常帳赤字，保證了美元將繼續下跌。 Even so, the macroeconomic logic that large current-account deficits signal that currencies are overvalued continues to escape the world’s international financial investors and speculators.但即使如此，宏觀經濟邏輯，即大的經常賬戶赤字信號，即貨幣被高估仍然難逃世界的國際金融投資者和投機者。

On one level, this is very frustrating: We economists believe that people are smart enough to understand their situation and capable enough to pursue their own interests.在一個層面上，這是很令人沮喪：我們經濟學家認為，人是聰明的，了解他們的處境和足夠的能力，以追求其自身的利益。 Yet the typical investor in US dollar-denominated assets — whether a rich private individual, a pension fund, or a central bank — has not taken the steps to protect themselves against the very likely US dollar decline in our future.然而，典型的投資者，美元計價資產-無論是富裕的私人個人，養老基金，或中央銀行-有沒有採取措施來保護自己免受很可能是美元下跌對香港前途的。

In this case, what is bad for economists is good for the world economy: We may be facing a mere episode of financial distress in the US rather than sky-high long-term interest rates and a depression.在這種情況下，什麼是壞，為經濟學家們是好的，為世界經濟：我們可能面臨一個單純發作的財務困境，在美國，而不是高企，長期利率和經濟衰退。 The fact that economists can’t explain it is no reason not to be thankful.事實上，經濟學家們無法解釋，這是沒有理由不心存感激。

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