Is the dollar leading us into a depression?因是美元汇率导致我们陷入一种抑郁症？

A fallen greenback could mean economic turmoil, or it could trigger an economic crisis.倒下greenback可能意味着经济动荡，或者它可能会引发经济危机。 Economists are having trouble predicting the outcome because investors are not behaving rationallyBy rationallyBy J. Bradford DeLong经济学家遇到的预测结果，因为投资者是不会表现得rationallyby rationallyby作者德隆

The falling US dollar has emerged as a source of profound global macro-economic distress.高空掷美元已经出现的一个来源深刻的全球宏观的经济窘迫。 The question now is how bad that distress will become.现在的问题是如何恶劣，遇险就越小。 Is the world economy at risk?是世界经济处于危险中吗？ There are two possibilities.有两种可能性。 If global savers and investors expect the US dollar’s depreciation to continue, they will flee the currency unless they are compensated appropriately for keeping their money in the US and its assets, implying that the gap between US and foreign interest rates will widen.如果全球储蓄者和投资者预期美元贬值下去，他们会逃离货币，除非他们的补偿，妥善保存他们的钱，在美国和它的资产，这意味着该差距，美国和外国的利率会进一步拉开。 As a result, the cost of capital in the US will soar, discouraging investment and reducing consumption spending as high interest rates depress the value of households’ principal assets: their houses.因此，资本成本，在美国会上升，对投资和减少消费支出，因为高利率压低货值家庭的主要资产：他们的房子。

The resulting recession might fuel further pessimism and cutbacks in spending, deepening the downturn.由此造成的经济衰退可能会进一步燃料悲观主义和削减开支，深化经济低迷。 A US in recession would no longer serve as the importer of last resort, which might send the rest of the world into recession as well.美国经济衰退将不再担任进口商的最后手段，这可能会给世界其余地区步入衰退。 A world in which everybody expects a falling US dollar is a world in economic crisis.在这个世界里，每个人都预期下降美元，是世界上的经济危机。

By contrast, a world in which the US dollar has already fallen is one that may see economic turmoil, but not an economic crisis.相比之下，在这个世界里，美元已跌至是一个可以看到经济动荡，而不是一个经济危机。 If the US dollar has already fallen — if nobody expects it to fall much more — then there is no reason to compensate global savers and investors for holding US assets.如果美元已跌至-如果没有人希望它属于得多-则没有任何理由，以补偿全球储蓄者和投资者持有美国资产。

On the contrary, in this scenario there are opportunities: the US dollar, after all, might rise; US interest rates will be at normal levels; asset values will not be unduly depressed; and investment spending will not be affected by financial turmoil.与此相反，在这种情况下，有机会：美元，毕竟，可能回升;美国利率将保持在正常水平;资产价值不会受到压抑;及投资开支，将不会受金融风暴的冲击。

Of course, there may well be turbulence: When US wage levels appear low because of a weak US dollar, it is hard to export to the US, and other countries must rely on other sources of demand to maintain full employment.当然，也有可能被湍流：当美国的工资水平似乎很低，因为弱势美元，这是难以出口到美国，和其他国家必须依靠其他来源的需求，以维持充分就业。 The government may have to shore up the financial system if the changes in asset prices that undermined the US dollar sink risk-loving or imprudent lenders.政府可能要上岸了金融体系，如果变动，资产价格即削弱了美元汇风险爱好或轻率放款。

But these are, or ought to be, problems that we can solve.但是，这些都是，或应该是问题，我们能解决的问题。 By contrast, sky-high US interest rates produced by a general expectation of a massive ongoing US dollar decline is a macroeconomic problem without a solution.相比之下，高企，美国利率所产生的普遍期待一个大规模正在进行美元下降是一个宏观经济问题没有得到解决。

Yet so far there are no signs that global savers and investors expect a US dollar decline.然而，直至目前为止，并无迹象显示全球储蓄者和投资者预期美元下跌。 The large gap between US and foreign long-term interest rates that should emerge from and signal expectations of a falling US dollar does not exist.之间的巨大差距，美国和外国的长期利率应该摆脱与信号所预期的下降，美元是不存在的。 And the US$65 billion needed every month to fund the US current-account deficit continues to flow in. Thus, the world economy may dodge yet another potential catastrophe.和美国的650亿美元，需要每三个月向基金，美国的经常帐赤字继续流入，因此，世界经济有可能回避，但另一个潜在的灾难。

That may still prove to be wishful thinking.这可能仍然被证明是一厢情愿的想法。 After all, the US’ still-large current-account deficit guarantees that the US dollar will continue to fall.毕竟，美国仍是广大市民的经常帐赤字，保证了美元将继续下跌。 Even so, the macroeconomic logic that large current-account deficits signal that currencies are overvalued continues to escape the world’s international financial investors and speculators.但即使如此，宏观经济逻辑，即大的经常账户赤字信号，即货币被高估仍然难逃世界的国际金融投资者和投机者。

On one level, this is very frustrating: We economists believe that people are smart enough to understand their situation and capable enough to pursue their own interests.在一个层面上，这是很令人沮丧：我们经济学家认为，人是聪明的，了解他们的处境和足够的能力，以追求其自身的利益。 Yet the typical investor in US dollar-denominated assets — whether a rich private individual, a pension fund, or a central bank — has not taken the steps to protect themselves against the very likely US dollar decline in our future.然而，典型的投资者，美元计价资产-无论是富裕的私人个人，养老基金，或中央银行-有没有采取措施来保护自己免受很可能是美元下跌对香港前途的。

In this case, what is bad for economists is good for the world economy: We may be facing a mere episode of financial distress in the US rather than sky-high long-term interest rates and a depression.在这种情况下，什么是坏，为经济学家们是好的，为世界经济：我们可能面临一个单纯发作的财务困境，在美国，而不是高企，长期利率和经济衰退。 The fact that economists can’t explain it is no reason not to be thankful.事实上，经济学家们无法解释，这是没有理由不心存感激。

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