Iraqi government on brink of collapse following cabinet walkouts伊拉克政府對瀕臨崩潰的下列內閣罷工

By由 James Cogan詹姆斯cogan

The political survival of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki is in doubt following the withdrawal from his cabinet of two political blocs that derive the bulk of their support from Iraq’s Sunni Arab population.政治生存首相裡基地馬利基是在懷疑撤離後，從內閣的兩個政治集團表示，獲得他們大部分的支持，伊拉克的遜尼派阿拉伯人口。 A variety of sectarian and ethnic cliques in Baghdad are reportedly involved in discussion with the Bush administration over ousting Maliki and forming a new government when the Iraqi parliament resumes in September.各種宗派和種族集團在巴格達據報導，參與討論，與布什政府推翻馬利基，並組建新政府時，伊拉克議會復會9月。

Five ministers from to the Iraqi Accordance Front (IAF) resigned their positions last Wednesday. 5名部長，由伊拉克和諧陣線（宇航聯合會）辭職，其職位上週三。 On July 25, the IAF gave Maliki seven days to announce a major purge of Shiite militia members within the new Iraqi army and police, increased funding for government services in Sunni areas and the release of thousands of Sunnis detained in US and government prisons on suspicion of involvement in the anti-occupation insurgency.於7月25日，印度空軍給馬利基7天宣布一項重大整肅什葉派民兵組織成員在新的伊拉克軍隊和警察，加大資金，為政府服務，在遜尼派地區，並釋放數千名遜尼派穆斯林被拘留在美國政府和監獄懷疑參與反佔領的武裝。 In their resignation statement, the Sunni ministers accused Maliki of “arrogance” and having “led Iraq to a level of misery it had not seen in modern history”.在其辭職聲明中，遜尼派部長指責馬利基"的囂張氣焰" ，並領導的"伊拉克到一定程度的痛苦，他們還沒看到，在近代史上" 。

The IAF functions as the political wing of the powerful Association of Muslim Scholars (AMS), an organisation of several thousand clerics who bitterly resent the loss of Sunni influence following the US overthrow of the largely Sunni-based Baathist regime of Saddam Hussein.宇航聯合會職能為政治派別的強大穆斯林學者協會（簡稱AMS ） ，一個組織的數千名神職人員，他們強烈反感，喪失遜尼派的影響力之後，美國推翻遜尼派主要基於目前還不是薩達姆侯賽因政權。 Since 2003, Shiite fundamentalist opponents of Baath Party rule have dominated the various US puppet governments in Baghdad.自2003年以來，什葉派原教旨主義的反對者阿拉伯復興社會黨統治，已經主導了美國的各種偽政府在巴格達。 The AMS regularly accuses the Shiite-led government of infiltrating Shiite militias into the security forces to murder Sunni opponents.醫療輔助隊經常指責什葉派領導的政府的滲透，什葉派民兵編入安全部隊，以謀殺遜尼派反對者。 It also alleges the government deliberately restricts services and reconstruction work in Sunni areas.它也指政府刻意限制服務和災後重建工作能在遜尼派地區。

The walkout by the Sunni ministers had one primary aim: to end Maliki’s ability to claim he heads a “national unity” government that represents all Iraq’s sectarian and ethnic groups—one of the Bush administration’s so-called benchmarks.罷工是由遜尼派們有一所小學的目標：到年底馬利基的執政能力，要求他所領導的"民族團結"政府，是代表全體伊拉克的宗派和種族群體，其中，布什政府的所謂基準。 On Monday, they were joined by four ministers from the Iraqi National List of Iyad Allawi, who announced they will boycott all cabinet meetings until Maliki ends his “marginalisation” of Sunnis.上週一，他們加入了由4名部長是從伊拉克國家名單阿拉維宣布，他們將抵制所有內閣會議，直到馬利基完他的"邊緣化"的遜尼派穆斯林。

A total of 17 ministers have now left or are boycotting his cabinet.一共有17部長已經離開或抵制他的內閣。 A member of Allawi’s list resigned earlier this year while six ministers from the Sadrist Shiite movement walked out in April.成員阿拉維的名單辭去今年早些時候，而六位部長分別由什葉派sadrist運動走出來，在4月。 The Sadrists, who posture as opponents of the US occupation, resigned after Maliki rejected the demand of their leader, cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, for a timetable specifying when all foreign troops would leave Iraq.薩德爾，他們的姿態，作為對手的美國佔領，辭職後，馬利基拒絕要求他們的領導人，宗教人士穆克塔達薩德爾，為一個時間表，指明當所有外國部隊離開伊拉克。 The latest defections reduce the cabinet to a barely functioning rump.最新叛逃減少內閣一個勉強運轉rump 。

There is no doubt that the Bush administration is behind the effort to bring down Maliki’s government.這是毫無疑問的是布什政府背後的努力，一方面使馬利基政府的責任。 Iyad Allawi is little more than a US stooge.阿拉維略多於美國走卒。 In the lead-up to the war, he had a hand in fabricating the lies that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction and that the Iraqi people would welcome a US invasion.在率先行動，以戰爭中，他曾插手編造謊言伊拉克擁有大規模殺傷性武器，並表示，伊拉克人民將歡迎美國的入侵。 He was rewarded in 2004, when the occupation installed him as the country’s unelected interim prime minister.他終於得到回報，在2004年前，在佔領安裝了他作為國家的並非由選舉產生的臨時政府總理。 He undoubtedly harbours ambitions to retake the position and would have sought Washington’s blessing before announcing his List’s boycott of the cabinet.他無疑是窩藏野心奪回地位，並已尋求美國的支持，才會宣布他的名單上的杯葛下的內閣。

Speaking from a luxury villa in Jordan where he spends much of his time, Allawi summed up the US attitude toward Maliki in the New York Times this week: “The national unity government is a myth, not a reality.從豪華別墅，在約旦，他花了很多時間，阿拉維總結了美國的態度，馬利基在紐約時報本星期說： "民族團結政府，是一個神話，而不是現實。 The political process is going nowhere.”政治進程是行不通的" 。

US frustrations with Maliki have been growing since he was named by the ruling United Iraqi Alliance (UIA) as its candidate for prime minister in May 2006.美國的挫折與馬利基一直以來，他被任命，由執政的伊拉克團結聯盟（聯合會）為總理候選人，在2006年5月。 He has been repeatedly accused by the US military of thwarting its attempts to destroy the powerful Sadrist militia—the Mahdi Army.他已多次指責美國軍方挫敗企圖摧毀強大sadrist民兵-馬赫迪軍隊。 While no longer in the cabinet, the Sadrists still provide the main base of support for Maliki within the Shiite UIA, along with his own Da’wa Party.雖然不再在內閣中，薩德爾仍然提供了主要的支持基礎馬利基在什葉派伊拉克團結聯盟，再加上他自己的達瓦黨。 The other major party in the coalition, the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council (SIIC), wants one of its leaders, current vice-president Adel Abdul Mahdi, to be prime minister.其他主要政黨聯盟，最高人民法院伊拉克伊斯蘭理事會（ siic ） ，希望它的一個領導人，現任副總統阿德爾阿卜杜勒邁赫迪，會成為首相。

This year, Maliki has failed to even secure the necessary support within his own coalition, let alone other factions, for Washington’s “benchmarks”.今年，馬利基沒有，甚至獲取必要的支持，他自己的聯盟，更遑論其他派系，為華盛頓的"基準" 。 Among the main US demands are legislation that would open Iraq’s oil industry to foreign investment and an end to the policy of “de-Baathification” that prevents thousands of predominantly Sunni ex-members of Hussein’s party from holding government or military positions.其中主要的美國的要求，是立法，這樣才能打開伊拉克石油業的外國投資並結束該政策的"清除復興黨"阻止數千名遜尼派前議員侯賽因的黨，從政府控股或軍事據點。 In US circles, the marginalisation of former Baathists is held responsible for a large part of the insurgency in Iraq.在美國各界，邊緣化的前復興黨成員，是負責的很大一部分伊拉克的武裝分子。

Fueling US antagonism toward not only Maliki but all the Shiite factions in Iraq are their political and religious relations with Iran.帶動了美國的對立走向不僅馬利基，但所有派系什葉派在伊拉克是他們的政治和宗教與伊朗的關係。 Under conditions of rising tensions between Washington and Tehran, many Shiite politicians still consider Iran the natural ally of a Shiite-dominated Iraqi state.根據條件之間的緊張局勢日益華盛頓和德黑蘭，許多什葉派政界人士仍然認為，伊朗的天然盟友，什葉派佔多數的伊拉克國家。 Maliki again caused outrage in Washington by meeting on Wednesday with Iranian leaders and declaring Iran was playing a “constructive role” in stabilising Iraq.馬利基再次引起了憤怒，在華盛頓會議上週三與伊朗領導人，並宣布伊朗正在發揮"建設性作用" ，在穩定伊拉克。 A major element of US propaganda against Tehran is the accusation that Iranian special forces are supplying rogue Sadrist militiamen with explosives to attack US troops.的一個重要因素，美國的宣傳，對德黑蘭的指控說，伊朗特種部隊是供應無賴sadrist民兵用炸藥攻擊美軍。

Throughout this year, the US military has been shifting away from a Shiite-led government in Baghdad.全國各地今年以來，美國軍方一直移離一個什葉派主導的政府在巴格達。 It has sought to develop an alternative base of support for the US occupation in Sunni areas.它力求制訂一個替代的支持基礎，為美國佔領，在遜尼派地區。 Millions of dollars have been handed out to secure alliances with Sunni tribal leaders and insurgent groups across Baghdad and western and central Iraq.以百萬元計的已被移交給安全聯盟與遜尼派部落領袖和叛亂集團橫跨巴格達西部和中部伊拉克。 In the main, these new Sunni allies are utterly hostile to Maliki’s government, which they denounce as a puppet of Iran rather than Washington.大體而言，這些新的遜尼派盟友是毫無敵意馬利基的政府，而他們聲討作為一個傀儡伊朗而非華盛頓。

The 25,000 Sunni militiamen who have been recruited are viewed by Maliki as a threat to Shiite power. 25000名遜尼派民兵，他們已經招募來看，由馬利基為威脅的什葉派政權。 His objections, however, have been ignored by the US commander in Iraq, General David Petraeus, and dismissed by the Bush administration.他的反對意見，不過，有被忽略的是由美國指揮官在伊拉克，一般大衛彼得雷烏斯，並駁回了小布什政府。

The abandonment of Maliki’s government by the Sunni IAF and Allawi’s List is bringing these simmering tensions to a head.拋棄馬利基的政府，由遜尼派宇航聯合會和阿拉維的名單，把這些一觸即發的緊張達到了頂點。 With just 21 ministers still loyal to the prime minister out of the original 38, there is tremendous pressure even within the Shiite UIA to propose an alternative leader rather than risk being excluded from power altogether.與剛才部長21日仍忠於英國首相出來的原38 ，有巨大的壓力，即使是什葉派伊拉克團結聯盟提出一項替代領袖，而不是有可能被排除在權力完全。

Intense manoeuvring is underway.激烈的操縱正在進行之中。 Saleh al-Mutlaq, the leader of the small Sunni Iraqi National Dialogue Front, told the New York Times this week that he was seeking talks with the IAF, Allawi’s group and the anti-UIA Shiite Fadhila Party over forming a rival coalition.薩利赫鋁對話陣線，領導者的小遜尼派伊拉克全國對話陣線， 告訴紐約時報本週表示，他正在尋求與宇航聯合會，阿拉維集團和反聯合會什葉派fadhila黨形成了競爭對手聯盟。 If such a grouping were able to get the support of the 55-strong Kurdistan Alliance (KA) in the parliament, it would have an outright majority and could govern without any of the Shiite fundamentalist parties.如果有這樣的分組都能夠找到支持， 55強庫爾德斯坦聯盟（家） ，在議會中，將有一個絕對多數，並可能執政，沒有任何的什葉派原教旨主義政黨。 Allawi would be the most likely candidate for prime minister.阿拉維將是最有可能的總理人選。

According to the Egypt-based Al-Ahram , the Bush administration is working on another option.據該埃及-基於鋁-金字塔報說，布什政府正在著手另一種選擇。 Bush has reportedly held phone conversations over the past two weeks with SIIC’s leading candidate for prime minister, Adel Abdul Mahdi, as well as the party’s leader, cleric Abdul Aziz al-Hakim.布什據稱舉行電話交談，在過去兩個星期，與siic領先的總理候選人，阿德爾阿卜杜勒邁赫迪，以及作為黨的領袖，神職人員阿卜杜勒阿齊茲哈基姆。 He has also spoken with Kurdish president Jalal Talabani and Sunni vice-president Tariq Hashemi.他也談到同庫爾德總統塔拉巴尼和遜尼派副總統塔里克哈希米。

The US is apparently backing the creation of a new coalition consisting of SIIC, factions of Da’wa prepared to abandon Maliki, Allawi’s List, Hashemi’s faction of the Iraqi Accordance Front and the Kurdish parties.美國顯然支持建立一個新的聯盟構成的siic ，派別達瓦準備放棄馬利基，阿拉維的名單，哈什米的派別的伊拉克共識陣線和庫爾德政黨。 Allawi or Mahdi would head such a government.阿拉維或馬赫迪將領導一個這樣的政府。 It would exclude Maliki and the Sadrists, as well as Fadhila and Sunni groupings such as Mutlaq’s which are antagonistic toward US demands for the sell-off of Iraq’s oil.這將排除馬利基和薩德爾，以及fadhila和遜尼派團體，如全國對話陣線的是對抗，對美國的要求，為賣過伊拉克的石油。

The price being demanded by the Kurdish parties is clear.價格被要求由庫爾德人政黨是清楚的。 They would want Kurdish control over the northern city of Kirkuk and the oilfields that surround it.他們希望庫爾德人控制的北部城市基爾庫克和油田圍繞它。 Hinting at their willingness to be bought, Talabani pointedly declared last week that the Sunni criticisms of Maliki were “mostly fair”.暗示，他們願意買，塔拉巴尼還尖銳地宣布上週表示，遜尼派指責馬利基"大多是公平的" 。 Mahmoud Othman, a Kurdish legislator, told the Al-Ahram Weekly that the Kurdish parties wanted to enhance “reconciliation by including Allawi in the political process”.馬哈茂德奧斯曼，一名庫爾德立委，告訴基地金字塔報周刊說，庫爾德政黨希望加強對"和解包括阿拉維在政治進程" 。

SIIC’s collaboration in a move against Maliki has a similar price. siic的合作，此舉對馬利基也有類似的價格。 It has been pushing for the creation of an autonomous region in its southern Iraqi stronghold that would control the country’s southern oilfields.它一直在推動建立一個自治區在伊拉克南部據點，這將控制該國的南部油田。 SIIC’s regionalism is bitterly opposed and would be resisted by the Baghdad-centred Sadrist movement. siic的區域主義是堅決反對態度，並會受到抵制，由巴格達中心sadrist運動。 If SIIC and the Kurdish parties have their way, Iraq will be effectively partitioned along ethnic and sectarian lines—a move that can only accelerate large-scale ethnic cleansing, sectarian violence and instability, not only in Iraq but throughout the region.如果siic和庫爾德政黨得逞，伊拉克將得到有效分割沿著種族和宗派線-此舉只能加速大規模種族清洗，教派之間的暴力和不穩定的，不僅是在伊拉克，而是整個地區。

The Bush administration’s barely disguised efforts to oust Maliki once again make a mockery of its claims to have created a sovereign, democratic government in Baghdad.布什政府的僅僅是變相的努力，以推翻馬利基再次作出一個諷刺其自稱，以創造一個主權，民主的政府，在巴格達。 Whatever the final outcome of its political manipulations, the White House is seeking a new regime that will more effectively implement US demands, particularly for the opening up of Iraqi oilfields to US corporations, and ruthlessly suppress ongoing opposition to the occupation.不管最後的結果，其政治操作，白宮正在尋求一種新的制度，將更加有效地執行了美國的要求，特別是為開闢了伊拉克油田美國公司，並無情地鎮壓正在進行反對佔領。 Moreover, by eliminating or at least diluting Shiite influence in the Baghdad government, the US is clearing the decks for a sharp escalation of its confrontation with Iran, including the use of military force.此外，通過消除或至少削弱什葉派的影響力，在巴格達政府，美國正在清理列隊為急劇升級，其對抗伊朗，其中包括使用武力。

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