A Generalized Meltdown of Financial Institutions广义濒临崩溃的金融机构

Reality Reality has finally caught up to the stock market. 现实的现实，终于赶上了适用于股票市场。 The American consumer is underwater, the banks are buried in debt, and the housing market is in terminal distress. 美国消费者是在水下，银行都埋在债务，使住房市场是在终端困扰。 The Dow is now below its 200-Day Moving Average — the first big “sell” signal. 道琼工业指数现已跌破200天移动平均线-第一个大"卖"的信号。 Anything below 12,500 could trigger program-trading and crash the market. 任何低于12500可能引发程控贸易和失事市场。 The increased volatility suggests that we are watching a “real time” meltdown. 增加的波动表明，我们正注视着一个"实时"垮塌。

International Business editor for the UK Telegraph, Ambrose Evans Pritchard, summed up yesterday’s action in the Asian markets: 国际业务部编辑，英国电报，刘汉铨埃文斯普里查德，总结了昨天的行动，并在亚洲市场：

“The global credit crisis has hit Asia with a vengeance for the first time, triggering a massive flight to safety as investors across the region pull out of risky assets. "全球信用危机已席卷亚洲的一个复仇为第一次，引发大规模的飞行安全，因为投资者在整个区域退出风险资产。 Yields on three-month deposits in China and Korea have plummeted to near 1pc in a spectacular fall over recent days, caused by panic withdrawals from money market funds and credit derivatives. 国债收益率3个月的定期存款，在中国和韩国已下降到近1件，在一项别开生面的秋季最近几天，所造成的恐慌而退出货币市场基金和信贷衍生工具。

“‘This’ is a severe warning sign,’ said Hans Redeker, currency chief at BNP Paribas. " '这个'是一个严重的警告标志， '汉斯说： redeker ，货币政务在法国巴黎。 ‘Asia ignored the credit crunch in August but now we’re seeing the poison beginning to paralyze the whole global economy.’” (Credit ‘Heart attack’ engulfs China and Korea” Ambrose Evans Pritchard,UK Telegraph,) '亚洲忽视的信贷紧缩，在8月，但现在我们看到股市的毒药开始，以瘫痪整个全球经济的发展。 ' " （信用 ' 心脏病'淹没中国和韩国的"刘汉铨埃文斯普里查德，英国电讯报）

The credit storm that began in the United States with subprime mortgages has spread to markets across the globe. 信用风暴开始，在美国与次级抵押贷款已经蔓延到市场的全球各地。 In fact, the train has already crashed. 事实上，火车已经坠毁。 What we’re seeing now is the boxcars piling up on top of each other. 我们现在看到的，现在是boxcars堆积如山，再加上对方。

On Tuesday Chinese government officials ordered a complete halt to bank lending to slow the speculative frenzy that has created an enormous equity bubble in the stock market. 上周二，中国政府官员已下令全面停止向银行借贷，以减缓投机的狂热已经创造了一个巨大的股本泡沫，在股票市场。 According to the Wall Street Journal: 据华尔街日报：

“Chinese authorities are slamming the brakes on bank lending, in their latest attempt to curb the runaway investment threatening to overheat what is soon to be the world’s third-largest economy. "中国当局强行刹车对银行借贷，在他们最新的尝试，以遏止日益猖獗的投资威胁过热是什么不久将成为世界第三大经济体。 In recent weeks, regulators have quietly ordered China’s commercial banks to freeze lending through the end of the year, according to bankers in several cities. 在最近几个星期，监管当局已悄悄下令中国的商业银行冻结贷款，通过今年年底前，根据银行家在数个城市。 The bankers say that to comply, they are canceling loans and credit lines with businesses and individuals.” (”China freezes lending to Curb Investing Frenzy” Wall Street Journal) 银行家说，要遵守，他们是取消贷款和信贷额度，企业和个人" （简称"中国冻结贷款，以遏止投资热潮"华尔街日报）

The move illustrates how concerned the Chinese are that a slowdown in US consumer spending will trigger a crash on the Shanghai stock market. 此举说明了如何关注中国人，均显示出放缓的美国消费者支出将引发崩溃对上海股票市场。 It also shows that the Chinese are having difficulty dealing with the inflation generated by the hundreds of billions of US dollars absorbed via the trade imbalance with the US. 这也显示了中国人是比较困难的处理与通货膨胀所产生的数千亿美元吸收途经贸易不平衡与美国。 China is awash in USDs and that surplus is causing a steady rise in food and energy costs. 中国是淹没在usds和过剩，是造成稳步上升，在食品和能源的成本。 This could be mitigated by allowing their currency to “float” freely. 这可以减轻，让他们的货币"的浮动汇率制度"自由进出。 But a sudden, steep increase in the Chinese yuan’s value could also send the world headlong into a global recession. 但突然间，陡峭的增加，在中国人民币的价值，还可以把世界大呼成为一个全球性的经济衰退。 For now, the lending freeze and price fixing appear to be the way out. 目前，这些贷款的冻结和操纵价格似乎成为一条出路。

Another sign that the markets have reached a “tipping point” appeared in a Reuters article on Wednesday; “Interbank Covered Bond Trading Halted on Volatility”: 另有迹象表明，市场已经达到了一个"转折点 " 出现在路透社的一篇关于周三" ;涵盖银行间债券交易停止，在股价波动" ：

“Renewed credit turmoil and volatility led the European Covered Bond Council (ECBC) on Wednesday to suspend inter-bank market-making in covered bonds until Monday, Nov. 26. "续约信用动乱和波动，导致了欧洲涵盖债券理事会（ ecbc ）于周三暂停银行间市场庄家盖债券，直到周一， 11月26日。

The move is a sign of the stress in the covered bond market, which is dominated by German institutions that have almost a trillion euros of covered bonds outstanding. 此举是一个信号的应力在涵盖债券市场，其中主要是受德国的机构，让其有近万亿欧元的债券，所涵盖的优秀。

Covered bonds — backed by pools of assets that remain on the borrower’s balance sheet — are usually highly liquid and typically rated triple-A by ratings agencies. 涵盖债券-背靠池的资产仍留在该借款人的资产负债表内-通常是具有高度流动性，而且通常评为三A由评级机构。 The ECBC’s recommendation is aimed at relieving the pressure on market makers who are forced to quote prices at a fixed bid-offer spread. 该ecbc的建议，目的是纾解压力，对市场庄家，他们是被迫竞标价格在一个固定的出价还价蔓延。

“In light of the current market situation and in order to avoid undue over-acceleration in the widening of spreads, the 8-to-8 Market-Makers & Issuers Committee recommends that inter-bank market-making be suspended,” the ECBC said in a release.” "鉴于目前的市场形势，并为了避免不必要的过度加快，在扩大利差， 8日至8日市场庄家及发债体委员会建议，银行间市场庄家暂停， " ecbc说在今天公布的一份" 。

Note: This isn’t mortgage-backed junk that’s being sold, but highly liquid bonds that are usually easy to cash in. The ECBC’s action is a sign of pure desperation and indicates that credit paralysis has infected the entire euro banking system. 注：这是不是抵押贷款支持的垃圾，这被售出 ， 但具备高流动性债券，即通常容易现金英寸的ecbc的行动，是一个标志，纯绝望，并表示信用麻痹，已经感染了整个欧元区银行制度。

Reuters: “Due to general market conditions and the specific mechanics of the inter-dealer market making it even seems possible that inter-dealer market making will not be resumed this year.” 路透社说： "由于一般的市场条件和具体力学的跨市场交易决策，甚至有可能跨经销商庄家将不会被收回，这一年" 。

That’s bad. 这已经是坏。 The mechanism for converting covered bonds into cash has broken down. 机制转换债券盖成现金已告失败。

The dollar took another pasting on Wednesday, sliding to $1.49 on the euro; another new record. 美元乘另一粘贴上周三，滑动至1.49美元，对欧元的另一项新纪录。 Gold shot up to $814 per ounce. 金价飙升至814美元每盎司。 Oil continues to flirt with the $100 per barrel mark, and the yen rose to 107 per dollar forcing a sell-off of hedge fund assets levered through the carry trade. 油价持续调情与100元大关，与日圆上涨至107兑1美元，强迫卖过对冲基金的杠杆资产，通过开展贸易。

Jon Basile, economist at Credit Suisse, summed it up like this: “There’sa heck of a lot of bad news out there.” Indeed. 琼巴西莱，经济学家，瑞士信贷 ， 归纳起来是这样的： "有一个有趣了不少坏消息，有"确实的。

In California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger has joined with four mortgage lenders to freeze adjustable interest rates (ARMs) for some of the state’s highest-risk borrowers; another unprecedented move. 在加利福尼亚州州长施瓦辛格已加入四抵押贷款机构冻结可调整利率（武器） ，为一些国家的最高风险的借款人;另一个前所未有的举措。 The Governor hopes to avoid a collapse of the California real estate market which has gone into a tailspin. 总督希望避免崩溃，加州房地产市场已经成为一个tailspin 。 Home sales have plummeted more than 40 per cent for the last two months. 成屋销售下跌了40 ％以上，在过去的2个月。 Prices have dropped sharply—roughly 12 per cent statewide. 价格已大幅下跌 - 大约12 ％ ，全州。 New construction has slowed to a crawl. 新的建设，已经慢慢等了。 Layoffs are steadily rising. 裁员正稳步增加。 Jumbo loans (mortgages over $417,000) have been put on the “Endangered Species” list. 珍宝贷款（抵押贷款超过417000美元）已被提上了"濒危物种名单" 。 Even qualified borrowers can’t get mortgages. 即使是合格的借款人无法获得抵押贷款。 Nothing is selling. 什么是销售。 California housing is “off the cliff”. 加州房屋是"小康悬崖" 。

Schwarzenegger’s plan to keep over-extended subprime mortgage-holders in their homes faces an uncertain future. 阿诺的计划，以保持过度延长次级抵押贷款持有人在自己的家园面临着不确定的未来。 What incentive is there for homeowners to continue paying exorbitant monthly rates when their payments are not applied to the principle? 什么诱因是为业主继续支付昂贵的月度利率时，其付款并不适用原则？ The homeowners would be better off bailing out, accepting foreclosure, and starting over with a clean slate. 屋主可能是一个更好的挽救陷于困境，接受赎权，并开始用很清白。

It’s unrealistic to thinks that Schwarzenegger can stop the tidal wave of foreclosures that are sweeping across the state. 它的不切实际的想法认为，施瓦辛格都无法阻止潮水般的foreclosures这正席卷国家。 An estimated 3 million homeowners will lose their homes nationwide. 估计有300万房主将失去家园在全国范围内。

If you want to blame someone; blame Alan Greenspan. 如果你想责怪某人;责怪格林斯潘。 He’s the one who created this mess. 他的一个人，创造了这个烂摊子。 According to the economist Mike Shedlock: 据经济学家麦克shedlock ：

“The Fed caused the credit crunch by slashing interest rates to 1 per cent to bail out its banking buddies in the wake of a dotcom bubble collapse. "美联储造成的信贷紧缩，削减利率以百分之一挽救其银行朋友在经历了一个网络泡沫崩溃。 All the Fed did was create a bigger bubble. 所有联储立场是创造出更大的泡沫。 This bubble is so big in fact that it cannot even be bailed out. 这个泡沫是如此大言不惭事实，即它甚至不能被保释外出。 It’s the end of the line for a serially bubble blowing Fed. 它的底线，为一台串口泡沫吹美联储。

“So not only was this the biggest credit bubble in history, this was also the biggest transfer of wealth from the poor and middle class to the already enormously wealthy. " 所以这不仅是最大的信用泡沫，在历史上，这也是最大的财富转移，从穷人和中产阶层已经有很大的富裕。 That is the real travesty of justice regardless of whether or not the price tag is $1 trillion, $2 trillion, or $10 trillion.” (Mike Shedlock, “Mish’s Global Economic Trend Analysis”) 这是真正的对正义的嘲弄，无论是否或不标价是1万亿美元， 2万亿美元， 10000000000000美元" （麦克shedlock ， " mish的全球经济趋势分析" ）

The problem has gotten so serious that even Secretary of the Treasury, Henry Paulson, is putting up red flags. 问题怎么会变得如此严重，即使库务司，亨利鲍尔森，是在演戏的红旗。 Last week, Paulson ignited a sell-off on Wall Street when he made this statement: 上周，保尔森点燃卖过华尔街的时候，他作出这样的声明：

“The nature of the problem will be significantly bigger next year because 2006 [mortgages] had lower underwriting standards, no amortization, and no down payments….We’re never going to be able to process the number of workouts and modifications (to mortgages) that are going to be necessary doing it just sort of one-off. "问题的本质，将有显着较大的未来一年，因为2006年[抵押]有较低的承保标准，没有摊销，没有首期付款… … 。我们永远不会无法处理的数目锻炼和修改（以抵押贷款）表示，今后将会做必要的，它只是排序的一个富裕的人。 I’ve talked to enough people now to know that there’s no way that’s going to work.” 我已经谈过的人太少了，现在知道你是否有没办法去工作" 。

The desperation is palpable. 绝望是显而易见的。 Like Schwarzenegger, Paulson is trying to get mortgage-lenders to provide a safety net for struggling borrowers who are defaulting on their loans. 像施瓦辛格，鲍尔森正试图取得抵押贷款放款人提供一个安全网，挣扎借款人拖欠贷款。

Paulson is calling for emergency legislation that will allow the Federal Housing Administration to play a greater role in the relief effort. 鲍尔森呼吁紧急立法，将允许联邦住房管理，以发挥更大的作用，在救灾工作。 The FHA has already expanded its traditional role by taking on hundreds of billions in extra debt just to keep a few “private” mortgage lenders and banks from going bankrupt. 该fha已经扩大了它的传统作用，通过采取对数以百计的数十亿美元的额外债务只保留少数"私家车"抵押贷款机构和银行破产。 Of course, when Paulson’s plan goes kaput and the debts pile up; it’ll be the taxpayer that foots the bill. 当然，当保尔森的计划云kaput和债务堆积，而是将纳税人认为蹄条例草案。

“Paulson also called the Senate’s failure to pass legislation overhauling mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac frustrating,” saying that the two government-sponsored entities need to be playing a bigger role in the housing market. "保尔森还呼吁参院未能通过立法，大修抵押贷款巨头房利美和Freddie Mac令人沮丧" ，并表示这两个由政府赞助的机构，必须发挥更大的作用，在房屋市场。

“If we ever need them it’s during times like today, and they’re most valuable when there is distress in the mortgage market,” he said. "如果我们任何时候都需要他们，它的时候，在同今天一样，同时，他们还在最有价值的时候，有危难，在抵押贷款市场， "他说。 “I’d like to see them playing an even bigger role.”(Wall Street Journal) " 我希望看到他们发挥了更大的作用… … " （华尔街日报）

Fannie and Freddie, have already posted enormous quarterly losses and don’t have the capital reserves to put millions of subprime mortgage-holders under their “government-sponsored” umbrella. Fannie和Freddie ，已张贴了巨大的季度亏损，也不具备资本储备向以百万计的次级抵押贷款持有人，根据其"政府主办的"保护伞。 Paulson is just grabbing at straws. 保尔森是刚刚抢在秸秆。

Similar troubles are brewing in the broader market where late-payments and defaults have spread to credit card debt and new car loans. 类似的麻烦，正酝酿着在更广泛的市场，如逾期付款和违约已扩散到信用卡债务和新的汽车贷款。 Every area of “securitized” debt has suddenly veered off the road and into the ditch. 每一个领域"证券化"的债务已突然转向小康的道路上，并把沟。 Last week the Fed injected more credit into the teetering banking system than anytime since 9-11. 上周美联储注入更多的信贷进入摇摇欲坠的银行体系，比任何时候自9-11 。

No one has predicted the downward-spiral in the market more accurately than Nouriel Roubini. 没有人预测向下螺旋在市场上更准确地比nouriel鲁比尼。 Roubini is a Professor at the Stern School of Business at New York University. 鲁比尼是一个教授，他在斯特恩商学院，纽约大学。 His analysis appears regularly on his blogsite, Global EconoMonitor. 他分析说，经常出现对他的blogsite ，全球economonitor 。 Last week’s prediction was particularly dire and is worth reprinting here: 上周的预测尤为可怕的，是值得重印在这里：

“It is increasingly clear by now that a severe US recession is inevitable in next few months…I now see the risk of a severe and worsening liquidity and credit crunch leading to a generalized meltdown of the financial system of a severity and magnitude like we have never observed before. "人们越来越清楚，现在一个严峻的美国经济衰退是不可避免的，在未来数个月内… …我现在看到的风险，严重和日益恶化的流动资金和信贷紧缩，导致了广义金融体系崩溃一个严重性和规模一样，我们有从来没有观察到。 In this extreme scenario whose likelihood is increasing we could see a generalized run on some banks; and runs on a couple of weaker (non-bank) broker dealers that may go bankrupt with severe and systemic ripple effects on a mass of highly leveraged derivative instruments that will lead to a seizure of the derivatives markets… massive losses on money market funds with a run on both those sponsored by banks and those not sponsored by banks; ..ever growing defaults and losses ($500 billion plus) in subprime, near prime and prime mortgages with severe knock-on effect on the RMBS and CDOs market; massive losses in consumer credit (auto loans, credit cards); severe problems and losses in commercial real estate…; the drying up of liquidity and credit in a variety of asset backed securities putting the entire model of securitization at risk; runs on hedge funds and other financial institutions that do not have access to the Fed’s lender of last resort support; a sharp increase in corporate defaults and credit spreads; and a massive process of re-intermediation into the banking system of activities that were until now altogether securitized.” (Nouriel Roubini’s Global EconoMonitor) 在这个极端情景的可能性正在增加，我们可以看到一个广义上运行的一些银行和运行于一对夫妇较弱（非银行）的经纪交易商可能破产，重度和系统性的连锁反应对集体的高度杠杆衍生工具这将导致检获的衍生工具市场…巨额亏损对货币市场基金与上都能够运行，这些赞助由银行和那些没有赞助，由银行; ..日益增长的违约和损失（ 5000亿美元另加） ，在次级，近首相和总理抵押重症连锁影响，对红色和cdos市场;巨额亏损，在消费信贷（汽车贷款，信用卡） ;严重问题和损失，在商业地产...干涸的流动资金和信贷，在多种资产支持证券将整个模型的证券化风险;运行于对冲基金和其他金融机构不具备进入美联储的最后贷款人的支持;急剧上升，企业拖欠和信贷息差，以及一个庞大的进程转口中介机构进入银行体系的活动是目前为止总共证券化" （ nouriel鲁比尼全球economonitor ）

“A generalized meltdown of the financial system”. "广义金融体系崩溃" 。

Looks like Chicken Little might have gotten it right this time; “The sky IS falling.” 看上去像鸡很少有可能得到正确的，这时候， "天塌下来了" 。

Mike Whitney lives in Washington state. 麦克惠特尼住在华盛顿州。 He can be reached at: 他可以达成： fergiewhitney@msn.com fergiewhitney@msn.com

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