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Alistair Darling and the implosion of the Labour government

Saturday, September 6th, 2008

By Chris Marsden | The August 30 Guardian interview with Britain’s Chancellor Alistair Darling was extraordinary in many respects. In the first place there can be few occasions that so dramatically reveal the sense of profound crisis within ruling circles in Britain.

Darling admitted to Decca Aitkenhead that the economic times we are facing “are arguably the worst they’ve been in 60 years… And I think it’s going to be more profound and long-lasting than people thought.”

Within 24 hours, he was accused of undermining confidence in Britain’s economy to such an extent that the pound hit a record low against the euro and a two-year low against the dollar. The FTSE 100 shares index also fell sharply.

Darling had committed the cardinal sin of stating openly, if still guardedly, that economically things are really bad and likely to get worse. His choice of 60 years was somewhat arbitrary. He could not mention the 1970s as many have done without raising the spectre of mass movements of workers bringing down governments. And references to the hungry thirties were similarly beyond the pale. But even such a partial acknowledgement as his was considered a serious blunder, even though only last week the Bank of England’s deputy governor, Charles Bean, had warned that the economy is facing a period “at least as challenging” as the 1970s.

Ian Stannard, a senior currency strategist at BNP Paribas, told the press, “Most people believed that things were probably deteriorating faster in the UK than the government was admitting, but the fact that we’ve seen the chancellor come out and admit that things are far worse have put sterling under pressure.”

The reaction was swift from both the government and the media. Prime Minister Gordon Brown instructed Darling to make a humiliating explanation of how he had been misinterpreted and was in fact focusing on the “unique problems” facing the “global economy.” Brown’s own speech to the Confederation of British Industry delivered Thursday was leaked in advance, in which he again emphasised that the problems facing Britain are international in origin, centering in the credit crunch, and that Britain was in fact well-placed to weather any downturn.

One senior Labour figure declared baldly to the Guardian, “Alistair must be insane. There is no rhyme, nor reason why he would want to talk like that.” The Financial Times declared scathingly that his “prognosis” on the economy “is too bleak,” whereas his fretting about the state of the Labour government “is nowhere near bleak enough.”

The ferocity of the reaction to Darling’s comments itself belies such efforts to belittle his estimation of the gravity of the economic crisis. Even as they were being made, reports were published that the British economy was at a standstill in the second quarter of the year, after a revision of figures wiped out the 0.2 percent growth reported earlier. The number of permanent jobs available had also plunged to its lowest level since 2001, with unemployment rising by about 70,000 this year and predicted to hit two million by Christmas. The manufacturing sector shrank for the fourth month in a row.

Mortgage approvals fell to 33,000 in July, the lowest since data was first collected in 1993, with the number of new mortgages issued down 71 percent in a year. House prices fell in August for the eleventh consecutive month and are now falling at an annual rate of over 10.5 percent.

Even as Darling was being decried for his candor by the Telegraph, the newspaper published an estimate by one of Britain’s foremost economists and former Bank of England policymaker, Charles Goodhart that “Britain is now facing a severe recession which will last for a year or longer and a worse housing crash than in the early 1990s”. Two days later, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) predicted recession for Britain, even while the other G7 countries will see either modest growth or a standstill.

If all that Darling’s interview confirmed was the dire state of the economy it would be interesting enough. But the chancellor’s comments provided a revealing glimpse into the deep sense of crisis gripping a Labour government that is on the verge of implosion. His interview reads like a cry of despair by someone who does not want to carry the can for Labour’s failure, but apart from this sees no way out.

 

Labour’s worship of the market 

The government’s mantra, echoed here by Darling, that it is merely the victim of an unfavourable international situation should be opposed on many fronts. New Labour earned its place in power by breaking with reformism and embracing Thatcherite economic nostrums. It was the political vehicle through which big business set out to impose a discredited economic and political agenda on a hostile population.

With the Conservatives hated and unelectable after 18 years in power, it was Labour under Tony Blair and Gordon Brown that came in to continue where Margaret Thatcher and John Major had left off. Labour insisted that capitalism was not only triumphant, but that there was also no alternative to it. It was the best of all possible worlds, provided only that government abandon all attempts at national regulation and recognise the economic and political imperatives of globalised capitalist production and the need to be internationally competitive.

To this end old-style reformism must give way to government in partnership with corporate management, wholesale privatization of state assets and public services and unbridled speculation by the City of London presided over by a Bank of England set free from governmental control. Above all workers should heed the message from the government and their allies in the trade union leadership—that the class struggle was a thing of the past and participation in creating a globally efficient economy would raise all boats.

For ten years, this provided the ideological justification for Labour facilitating by every possible means a historically unprecedented transfer of societal wealth to the super-rich. With the actual wages and purchasing power of working people in constant decline, and vital social services being gutted, Labour became ever more alienated from its former working class supporters. But it was able to maintain power to the extent that a speculative boom in house prices and a flood of credit allowed people to live well beyond their actual means.

Once this speculative boom burst internationally, it was inevitable that it would hit the British economy hardest of all and would signal the end of the Labour government.

The biographical material on Darling contained in Aitkenhead’s interview is sketchy, but revealing in painting a portrait of someone who was an ideal New Labour apparatchik.

She notes that while “A blaze of glitzier New Labour stars have since fallen… Darling survived, accumulating five ministerial posts on a stainless ascent to the exchequer last year. His career had been distinguished by an almost freakish absence of failure. He has never lost an election, he joined the front bench after just 12 months in parliament, and 20 years later he has never left. Only two other members of that first cabinet, Gordon Brown and Jack Straw, are still in government with Darling today.”

This rise to prominence is incredible because Darling’s own statements make clear that he is a political zero—someone with no connection to the Labour Party, old-style reformist socialism or the working class. Both his grandfathers were Liberals, his great-uncle a Tory MP in Edinburgh, and his father, a civil engineer, voted Conservative. He was educated at a private boarding school before studying law at Aberdeen where he stood for election in the student union, “but not for a party.”

He only joined the Labour Party 1977. This was a year during which Labour was in coalition with the Liberals and imposing IMF-dictated austerity measures that met with fierce resistance from the working class and ended with the 1979 “Winter of Discontent” and the election of the Conservatives. Darling’s response? “The Labour government in 1977 was in a terrible mess, and I was getting fed up looking at all these things on the television, and thinking, God, surely we can do better than that. I wanted to do things. But I was never really interested in the theory of achieving things, just the practicality of doing things.”

Later he tells Aitkenhead, “He doesn’t call himself a socialist—‘There’s nothing wrong with the term, it’s just not one I use’—and feels uncomfortable with political labels. Class envy is a mystery to him; he sees no point in raising taxes for the super rich, because, he says, it wouldn’t raise much revenue. ‘I’m not offended if someone earns large sums of money. Is it fair or not? It’s just a fact of life.’ Asked to define his politics, he offers, ‘Pragmatic’.”

 

The party’s over 

Like his colleagues, it was precisely Darling’s “pragmatism,” his hostility to socialism, absence of “class envy” and relaxed approach to fabulous private wealth that made him so successful for so long. He was ideal material for government as far as the Labour Party and its backers were concerned because was ready to do whatever he was told, unencumbered by any extraneous ideological baggage.

He was in effect a true and unalloyed believer in capitalism.

That is why, as he states, “For 10 years as a minister, by and large I had a charmed life.”

And that is also why all this changed by the time of that fateful day in June last year when he was appointed chancellor by Brown, as Labour was attempting to distance itself from the Iraq war and the sordid record of Blair’s premiership. Instead, as his wife states, his life has been “a crisis a week.”

In an extraordinary passage, he states that although “we knew the economy was going to slow down”: “he hadn’t the faintest inkling of the financial crisis about to unfold before him. ‘No, no one did. No one had any idea’.”

“He can clearly recall the day last summer when alarm bells first began to sound. The chancellor was on holiday with his wife and their two teenage children in Majorca. ‘I remember I picked up the FT in the supermarket, as you do, and it had the European central bank starting to put money into the economy. I phoned the office to ask why they were doing quite so much. It didn’t surprise me that money was going in—there was concern going around—but it was the sheer scale of it. I said, what about our institutions? This was when Northern Rock started to figure.”

“Even then,” Aitkenhead continues, “the gravity of the credit crunch was still not fully clear. ‘No one knew how serious it was yet’,” she quotes Darling saying.

What then is the future for a party that was so enamoured of capitalism that the man it appointed as chancellor was apparently so blissfully unaware of an unfolding financial disaster sweeping the world economy?

Aitkenhead states that today, “the mood is so febrile, it’s even possible he won’t be chancellor by the time this interview appears.”

As for Darling, he doesn’t want a cabinet reshuffle that may see him replaced—“Frankly, if you had a reshuffle just now, I think the public would say, Who are they anyway? You name me a reshuffle that ever made a difference to a government, actually.” Nor does he want a leadership challenge against Brown, even though he makes clear he has little hope of winning the next election.

“This coming 12 months,” he declares, “will be the most difficult 12 months the Labour party has had in a generation, quite frankly. Both the general economic situation, and in terms of the politics. In the space of 10 months we’ve gone from a position where people generally felt we were doing OK to where we’re certainly not doing OK. We’ve got to rediscover that zeal which won three elections, and that is a huge problem for us at the moment. People are pissed off with us.”

Whatever Darling might wish for, there is little chance that Brown will survive the next months unscathed, less chance still that Labour will win an election under any leader whatsoever, and a distinct possibility of the party imploding. As if to underline such political realities, even as the government was attempting to recover from the damage inflicted by Darling the former home secretary Charles Clarke was busy telling the BBC that Labour is facing “utter destruction” at the polls and insisting that Brown must either improve the standing of Labour within a few months or resign as prime minister.


Have Your Say: Alistair Darling and the implosion of the Labour government
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5 Responses to “Alistair Darling and the implosion of the Labour government”

  1. TMI
    Posted: Sep 6th, 2008 at 10:35 pm

    Well done Mick. I was just about to…..

    It deserves the front page.

    Reply | Quote selected text | Link to this

  2. V
    Posted: Sep 7th, 2008 at 1:32 am

    Its the Fractional Banking System - when we all become maxed out it inevitably self digests.

    What the scum at the top then do is mask the symptoms by having a really big kill off of population, A KULL.

    The war costs so much debt it floats the financial system for the next 50 or so years.

    Reply | Quote selected text | Link to this

  3. Paul
    Posted: Sep 13th, 2008 at 5:14 am

    It’s actually the real estate market. it has been known for a long time that the real estate market is peculiar amongst markets because an aspect of the property traded in the market is necessary for production, finite in extent but cannot be created by production. A real estate market, if treated like any other market, will create a cartel of owners that holds production hostage and so the surpluses created by producers end up the price of real estate rather than in the pockets of those producing. The government refuses to take basic economics into account when devising tax policy and the result is that most of the surpluses of the last two decades have been directed away from rewarding and encouraging productive endeavor and have instead acted to encourage people to hold real estate. It is going to be a disaster and an easily predicted one and one that could have been avoided.

    Reply | Quote selected text | Link to this

  4. V
    Posted: Sep 15th, 2008 at 9:55 am

    Sub prime 101

    On Monday couple A go to their bank and ask for a mortgage. The truth is couple A are not really able to pay back the money without difficulty but the bank does not care and here is why.

    On Tuesday the bank give the couple the 100% mortgage. On Wednesday the bank sells that debt to organisations such as Freddie and Fanny who then package thousands of those mortgage debts as bonds.

    The bank does not care because it can sell the debt quickly and make an instant killing.

    On Thursday the bond is sold to mainly Chinese investors on the international stock exchanges.

    Then what happens is the business community realise 911 was an inside job, they also realise many of the original mortgages were mis-sold and couples will never pay back the original mortgage loan.

    So Freddie and Fanny can no longer sell bonds, they do not buy from the banks and so the banks no longer give mortgages.

    Here steps in the US Government who then guarantees the liquidity of Freddie and Fanny, so now the investors in China again buy bonds from Freddie and Fanny, they buy mortgages from the banks and the banks keep giving people mortgages and other credit.

    This is a short term fix, were the taxpayer picks up the tab should the system go belly up and the private investors keeps making lots of money and have no debts or losses what so ever.

    If god forbid the bank still can not make a killing, well it just throws in its cards and the bank folds. The private individuals keep their accumulated wealth and the tax payer pays the bills.

    The fact is America is in economic meltdown and those who have any sence are selling and pulling out - the dollar is a junk currency backed by absolutely nothing except good will, and nobody is going to hold a currency backed by 911 WAR criminals are they?

    Reply | Quote selected text | Link to this

  5. V
    Posted: Sep 16th, 2008 at 1:04 am

    I found this and thought everybody needs to know this, hope it helps.

    Financial havoc wallops U.S. dollar and stocks

    By Kevin Plumberg Reuters - Monday, September 15 07:50 am

    HONG KONG (Reuters) - Stocks and the U.S. dollar fell sharply on Monday after Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy protection, sending safe-haven Treasury debt and gold prices soaring as the financial system bent under severe pressure.
    (Advertisement)

    U.S. stock market futures were down around 3 percent, pointing to sharply lower open, while major European markets were set for falls of between 3.5 to 4 percent.

    Rapid-fire developments on Wall Street, only a week after the U.S. government bailed out Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, left some analysts literally speechless and sent shockwaves through almost every asset class. The dollar plunged 1.9 percent against the yen, on track for its biggest decline since February 2007, as investors’ willingness to take risks evaporated.

    “It’s a pure flight to quality right now,” said Adam Donaldson, head debt strategist at Australia’s Commonwealth Bank.

    “The big concern is how Lehman and other banks unwind their credit default contracts,” he added. “Nobody knows how that will play out.”

    The price of insurance against default on debt soared, pushing up the iTRAXX Asia ex Japan high-yield index, a measure of credit market stress, to match record highs reached in the run-up to Bear Stearns’ collapse in March.

    While a lack of confidence felled Lehman, a lack of short-term funding was hurting one of the world’s largest insurers American International Group . The firm was asking the Federal Reserve for a bridge loan of $40 billion (22.1 billion pounds), according to the New York Times, an unprecedented move that further battered the dollar and knocked down two-year U.S. government debt yields to a five-month low.

    ASIAN STOCKS TUMBLE

    Stock markets in Australia, Singapore and Taiwan all dropped 3 to 4 percent, Indian stocks fell 5 percent.

    Holidays in most major Asian markets kept volume thin though price action belied a desire to seek safety first and ask questions later.

    “The exact ramifications of the liquidation process and the unwinding of positions pertaining to the Lehman situation remain unclear. Hence, over the next 48 hours at least, financial markets are likely to be volatile and tense,” said economists with United Overseas Bank in Singapore in a note.

    The Swiss franc and yen, currencies associated with stability in times of duress, strengthened, especially against the dollar, which reeled as some in the market speculated the Federal Reserve may have to cut interest rates on Tuesday to shore up the economy from financial fallout.

    The U.S. dollar dropped 1.9 percent against the yen at 105.88 yen and was off 1.2 percent against the Swiss franc to 1.1165 francs.

    The euro rose by more than a cent against the dollar to $1.4380, up 1.1 percent from late Friday in New York.

    In the spot market, gold rose 2 percent to $778.85 an ounce.

    FED SUPPLIES LIQUIDITY, NOT CONFIDENCE

    The Fed on Monday said it would begin accepting equities as collateral for emergency loans for the first time as it tried to ease the spiralling crisis. The steps would likely help surviving financial institutions to find cash but may not do much to boost global confidence in the U.S. financial system.

    “The mere fact that they are forced to do this — and they may still yet do some more — indicates the breadth and depth of the trouble that the system is in,” said V. Anantha Nageswaran, head of investment research, Asia-Pacific with Bank Julius Baer in Singapore.

    In addition, 10 of the world’s biggest banks agreed to establish a $70 billion borrowing facility to bolster liquidity.

    U.S. Treasury yields, which move in the opposite direction of prices, fell sharply in early Asian trade on Monday and 3-month eurodollar futures surged as dealers priced in the possibility of lower Federal Reserve benchmark interest rates.

    The yield on the policy-sensitive two-year Treasury note hit a five-month low of 1.90 percent. The 10-year yield was also at the lowest since April, at 3.52 percent compared with 3.72 percent late on Friday.

    Bank of America said it would acquire Merrill Lynch for $50 billion in yet another development that realigned Wall Street. The deal was significant not just because of its price but it showed how the private sector will have to sort itself out and not depend on backing of the U.S. government.

    “For many, but not all, this is an impossible lesson to learn in the middle of the worst financial storm since the Great Depression,” said Alan Ruskin, chief international strategist with RBS Greenwich in Greenwich, Connecticut.

    Australia’s benchmark S&P/ASX 200 index fell 1.8 percent, weighed by shares of the country’s top banks such as Commonwealth Bank of Australia and Macquarie Group .

    Taiwan’s TAIEX , the only stock market open in north Asia, dropped 4.1 percent to the lowest since November 2005.

    Singapore’s Straits Times index was at the lowest since September 2006, down 2.9 percent.

    “The financial sector in the region is very volatile now and we don’t expect investors’ confidence to recover quickly in just a few days or one week,” said Alex Huang, a vice president at Taiwan’s Mega International Securities.

    While the fate of the U.S. financial system loomed in investors’ minds around the world, initial reports that Hurricane Ike had not severely damaged infrastructure in Texas knocked benchmark oil prices fall to a six-month low below $99 a barrel.

    Oil fell $2.10 to $99.08 a barrel after falling as low as $98.46 — the lowest since February 26 — adding to a steady downward trend in prices since mid-July’s peak of over $147 a barrel as evidence mounts that high energy costs and a weakening economy are cutting into fuel consumption.

    (Additional reporting by Baker Li in TAIPEI and Wayne Cole in SYDNEY; Editing by Lincoln Feast)

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